[FRIAM] FW: [EXT] Your Coronavirus Tracker
thompnickson2 at gmail.com
thompnickson2 at gmail.com
Sun Jan 17 19:33:02 EST 2021
Dear EricS and EricC,
So, nothing to look at here? I guess not.
Nick
Nick Thompson
<mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
<https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Eric Charles
Sent: Sunday, January 17, 2021 6:29 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] FW: [EXT] Your Coronavirus Tracker
In line with other Eric,
Especially if you are comparing somewhere hit early with somewhere hit later, the most obvious explanation is probably that we have much more widespread testing now, and that current testing rates would have identified a much larger number of infected people in the first location.
Age of population and local policy (+ population cooperation with local policy) would be my next two, then probably climate differences.
There are, of course, a virtual infinity of possible variables.
On Sun, Jan 17, 2021 at 2:46 PM David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu <mailto:desmith at santafe.edu> > wrote:
There could be confounds that are systematic from location to location:
1. The number you see as “cases” is of course “positive tests” by one or another measure. Is it possible that Hampshire county is capturing fewer of their actual cases in tests? The absolute numbers are about 4x as large; do larger numbers impact the thoroughness of testing coverage? Does the presence of a megacity in Ma affect the state’s ability to cover lower-population regions?
2. Demographic structure: what is the age profile of both places? Since CFR varies strongly by age cohort, if some place is depopulated by the young or attractive to retirees, some skew could result. I would expect particularly large skews in some rural areas where many young people have left; don’t know why Hampshire would suffer that more than NM as a whole, but to compare a county to SF city could be suspect.
3. Are there any differences in cause-of-death reporting across regions, which could interact with the profile of things people die of in each region to produce a bias in total counts by category?
4 Does climate matter to severity of infection? If we looked at all areas grouped by relative humidity and tried to control statistically for everything else, would we find that being in a mosquito infested bog causes deeper-lung infections than being out west in the moon-dry silica grit, pollen, and forest-fire smoke?
5. Did Luhan-Grisham do a better job with shutdowns and public-health interventions than Barker? Did she obtain better compliance with guidelines, of the state as a whole or relative to particular counties? I think we know that masking not only reduces frequency of infections, but also reduces frequency of severe infections among those that do happen, by delivering lower viral loads. So distancing and masking practices could affect both total numbers and CFR.
Probably one could add hypotheses. When the epidemiologists have time to pursue such luxury science, it will be interesting to learn how many significant dummy variables they find.
Eric
On Jan 17, 2021, at 1:54 PM, <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com> > <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com> > wrote:
CFR for Santa Fe is 94/8629 = .011
CFR for NM as a whole is 2,912/162,893 = .018
CFR for Hampshire County is 219/4952 = .044
CFR for MA as a whole is 13,583/465,726 = .030
So the question remains, why am I four times less likely to die if I get sick here in Santa Fe, than if I go back to Hampshire County? Putting aside the fallacy of induction. The whole thing is a little crazy because Hampshire county includes none of the big Massachusetts hot spots. I suppose it’s imponderable, but I just though I would see what the list thinks about it.
N
Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
<mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
<https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,2qqNHDoqmyarZ2prg9ooAPRQpy0DGUrSaD-A416theUlxuB7xq03IGfgTI_KObP4ezHuSYYrKaQV3Ttn6fchitLlZGiB9Kw9pxhbKMWqH0_yhA,,&typo=1> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> > On Behalf Of Alexander Rasmus
Sent: Sunday, January 17, 2021 12:20 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com> >
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] FW: [EXT] Your Coronavirus Tracker
Nick,
You're making this harder than it has to be. The nyt gives you total cases and total deaths directly. You can divide total deaths by total cases to get the case fatality rate.
CFR for Santa Fe is 94/8629 = .011
CFR for NM as a whole is 2,912/162,893 = .018
CFR for Hampshire County is 219/4952 = .044
CFR for MA as a whole is 13,583/465,726 = .030
Best,
Alex
On Sun, Jan 17, 2021 at 10:31 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com> > wrote:
Dear Mathematically Competent Colleagues,
See below.
Do you agree that the population case rate divided by the population divided by the population death rate is equal to case fatality rate? If so, the case fatality rate in Santa Fe County is very low, a little over one percent whereas the case fatality rate in Hampshire County, Massachusetts, (where I have not been for a year but has a comparable population) is little over 4 percent. I tried to add King County Wa, where Glen is, because it was an early participant in the pandemic as was Massachusetts, but the tracker wont let me add new entries, today. The case fatality rate in MA is a tad under 5%, if my calculations are correct. In other words, if you catch covid in MA, with the world’s fanciest hospitals, you 4+ times more likely to die than if you catch it in New Mexico. Now, I was tempted to attribute this to the hospitals: i.e, terminal cases were coming into MA hospitals from other states, but Hampshire County doesn’t HAVE any fancy hospitals.
Hopefully this all because I am dividing reciprocals wrong. Does [1/a]/[1/b] = b/a?
n
Nicholas Thompson
<mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
<https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,2GittFBZAZZ2GGrkHPy1-eSNSGS-v6yNKc5cwpjUXNHEgwoCzPGkiKmtcQA6ZsBmSVGRrejCzcAJp5AI5QjW8vgw7gRosYjDelBqF3oL33OzAD4JBZv1UA,,&typo=1> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
From: The New York Times <nytdirect at nytimes.com <mailto:nytdirect at nytimes.com> >
Sent: Sunday, January 17, 2021 7:38 AM
To: nthompson at clarku.edu <mailto:nthompson at clarku.edu>
Subject: [EXT] Your Coronavirus Tracker
<https://nl.nytimes.com/q/vzG-j1eg17dcz3P61_nPkA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHPVcDbnl0Qgpf_cc9BGDPKSXBUhRudGhvbXBzb25AY2xhcmt1LmVkdVgEAAAAAA~~>
The latest numbers from New Mexico, Santa Fe County, N.M., Massachusetts, …
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/OzmXHBF95LRKrGjdBtSwdg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9jb3ZpZC1jYXNlcy1kZWF0aHMtdHJhY2tlci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA> View in browser| <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/tfjriY9JCsjGOlJl5kAf8g~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0S3aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA> nytimes.com
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/OzmXHBF95LRKrGjdBtSwdg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9jb3ZpZC1jYXNlcy1kZWF0aHMtdHJhY2tlci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA>
January 17, 2021
The latest U.S. coronavirus data from the places that matter most to you.
New Mexico
Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in New Mexico fell to 1,134 yesterday, a 5 percent decrease from the day before. Since January of last year, at least 1 in 13 people who live in New Mexico have been infected, and at least 1 in 720 have died.
ON JAN. 16
DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS
PER 100,000
14-DAY CHANGE
TOTAL REPORTED
Cases
1,088
1,134
54
–3%
162,893
Deaths
36
25
1.21
–18%
2,912
Hospitalized
632
685
33
–11%
MAPS & CHARTS: <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/1Boobgzp2erEZmAiAXlgrg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TsaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9uZXctbWV4aWNvLWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLWNhc2VzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MTg1JmVtYz1lZGl0X3ljdF8yMDIxMDExNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yNjEwOSZubD1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy10cmFja2VyJnJlZ2lfaWQ9NTcwMzYwODcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD00OTUzNyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9MWRjNmYxNWEzMGJlMmQ0NzEyZmFlNWYwZTVhOWE2NzlXA255dEIKX_3HPQRgzyklwVIUbnRob21wc29uQGNsYXJrdS5lZHVYBAAAAAA~> NEW MEXICO
Did someone forward you this email? <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/OzmXHBF95LRKrGjdBtSwdg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9jb3ZpZC1jYXNlcy1kZWF0aHMtdHJhY2tlci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA> Build your own daily Covid tracker.
United States
Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in the United States fell to 224,499 yesterday, a 3 percent decrease from the day before. Since January of last year, at least 1 in 14 people who live in the United States have been infected, and at least 1 in 838 have died.
ON JAN. 16
DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS
PER 100,000
14-DAY CHANGE
TOTAL REPORTED
Cases
201,732
224,499
68
+9%
23,813,966
Deaths
3,353
3,319
1.00
+27%
395,882
Hospitalized
126,139
129,008
39
+5%
MAPS & CHARTS: <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/OEGEH4uZx6jrklI8oSb5Bg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy11cy1jYXNlcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA> UNITED STATES
Santa Fe County, N.M.
Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in Santa Fe County fell to 64 yesterday, a 9 percent decrease from the day before. Since January of last year, at least 1 in 17 people who live in Santa Fe County have been infected, and at least 1 in 1,600 have died.
ON JAN. 16
DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS
PER 100,000
14-DAY CHANGE
TOTAL REPORTED
Cases
67
64
42
+5%
8,629
Deaths
3
1
0.76
–20%
94
MAPS & CHARTS: <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/1Boobgzp2erEZmAiAXlgrg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TsaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9uZXctbWV4aWNvLWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLWNhc2VzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MTg1JmVtYz1lZGl0X3ljdF8yMDIxMDExNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yNjEwOSZubD1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy10cmFja2VyJnJlZ2lfaWQ9NTcwMzYwODcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD00OTUzNyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9MWRjNmYxNWEzMGJlMmQ0NzEyZmFlNWYwZTVhOWE2NzlXA255dEIKX_3HPQRgzyklwVIUbnRob21wc29uQGNsYXJrdS5lZHVYBAAAAAA~> NEW MEXICO
Massachusetts
Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in Massachusetts fell to 5,513 yesterday, a 4 percent decrease from the day before. Since January of last year, at least 1 in 15 people who live in Massachusetts have been infected, and at least 1 in 507 have died.
ON JAN. 16
DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS
PER 100,000
14-DAY CHANGE
TOTAL REPORTED
Cases
5,799
5,513
80
+12%
465,726
Deaths
74
73
1.05
+3%
13,583
Hospitalized
2,197
2,211
32
–2%
MAPS & CHARTS: <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/iVpXGTrAwRwvueOi-sEViA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TvaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9tYXNzYWNodXNldHRzLWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLWNhc2VzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MTg1JmVtYz1lZGl0X3ljdF8yMDIxMDExNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yNjEwOSZubD1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy10cmFja2VyJnJlZ2lfaWQ9NTcwMzYwODcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD00OTUzNyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9MWRjNmYxNWEzMGJlMmQ0NzEyZmFlNWYwZTVhOWE2NzlXA255dEIKX_3HPQRgzyklwVIUbnRob21wc29uQGNsYXJrdS5lZHVYBAAAAAA~> MASSACHUSETTS
Hampshire County, Mass.
Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in Hampshire County fell to 66 yesterday, a 6 percent decrease from the day before. Since January of last year, at least 1 in 32 people who live in Hampshire County have been infected, and at least 1 in 734 have died.
ON JAN. 16
DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS
PER 100,000
14-DAY CHANGE
TOTAL REPORTED
Cases
65
66
41
+11%
4,952
Deaths
5
2
0.98
–35%
219
MAPS & CHARTS: <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/iVpXGTrAwRwvueOi-sEViA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TvaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9tYXNzYWNodXNldHRzLWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLWNhc2VzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MTg1JmVtYz1lZGl0X3ljdF8yMDIxMDExNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yNjEwOSZubD1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy10cmFja2VyJnJlZ2lfaWQ9NTcwMzYwODcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD00OTUzNyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9MWRjNmYxNWEzMGJlMmQ0NzEyZmFlNWYwZTVhOWE2NzlXA255dEIKX_3HPQRgzyklwVIUbnRob21wc29uQGNsYXJrdS5lZHVYBAAAAAA~> MASSACHUSETTS
Harris County, Texas
Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in Harris County fell to 3,093 yesterday, a 3 percent decrease from the day before. Since January of last year, at least 1 in 17 people who live in Harris County have been infected, and at least 1 in 1,248 have died.
ON JAN. 16
DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS
PER 100,000
14-DAY CHANGE
TOTAL REPORTED
Cases
3,110
3,093
66
+23%
281,422
Deaths
54
28
0.59
+104%
3,777
MAPS & CHARTS: <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/ppxvG31hgzXhNSrhz6LGXw~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TnaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy90ZXhhcy1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy1jYXNlcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA> TEXAS
Source: New York Times database of reports from state and local health agencies and hospitals. Population and demographic data from Census Bureau. Hospitalization data from the Covid Tracking Project.
14-day change trends are calculated with 7-day averages. Numbers may be revised to reflect improvements in data reporting. View <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/OzmXHBF95LRKrGjdBtSwdg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9jb3ZpZC1jYXNlcy1kZWF0aHMtdHJhY2tlci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA> your tracker online for the most up to date figures. For more about how this data was collected and compiled see our <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/f6LnCXQlZcYGD9DI88bOXA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TraHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9hYm91dC1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy1kYXRhLW1hcHMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0xODUmZW1jPWVkaXRfeWN0XzIwMjEwMTE3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTI2MTA5Jm5sPWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLXRyYWNrZXImcmVnaV9pZD01NzAzNjA4NyZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTQ5NTM3JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD0xZGM2ZjE1YTMwYmUyZDQ3MTJmYWU1ZjBlNWE5YTY3OVcDbnl0Qgpf_cc9BGDPKSXBUhRudGhvbXBzb25AY2xhcmt1LmVkdVgEAAAAAA~~> F.A.Q. page.
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