[FRIAM] FW: [EXT] Your Coronavirus Tracker

Sun Jan 17 21:58:45 EST 2021

I mean... there COULD be something to look at there, but it's hard to tell.
Because there are several mundane explanations that are plausible, until
those are somehow ruled out, it doesn't seem like more adventurous
explanations are necessary.

<echarles at american.edu>

On Sun, Jan 17, 2021 at 7:33 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:

> Dear EricS and EricC,
>
>
>
> So, nothing to look at here?  I guess not.
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nick Thompson
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Eric Charles
> *Sent:* Sunday, January 17, 2021 6:29 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] FW: [EXT] Your Coronavirus Tracker
>
>
>
> In line with other Eric,
>
>
>
> Especially if you are comparing somewhere hit early with somewhere hit
> later, the most obvious explanation is probably that we have much more
> widespread testing now, and that current testing rates would have
> identified a much larger number of infected people in the first location.
>
>
>
> Age of population and local policy (+ population cooperation with local
> policy) would be my next two, then probably climate differences.
>
>
>
> There are, of course, a virtual infinity of possible variables.
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Sun, Jan 17, 2021 at 2:46 PM David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu>
> wrote:
>
> There could be confounds that are systematic from location to location:
>
>
>
> 1. The number you see as “cases” is of course “positive tests” by one or
> another measure.  Is it possible that Hampshire county is capturing fewer
> of their actual cases in tests?  The absolute numbers are about 4x as
> large; do larger numbers impact the thoroughness of testing coverage?  Does
> the presence of a megacity in Ma affect the state’s ability to cover
> lower-population regions?
>
> 2. Demographic structure: what is the age profile of both places?  Since
> CFR varies strongly by age cohort, if some place is depopulated by the
> young or attractive to retirees, some skew could result.  I would expect
> particularly large skews in some rural areas where many young people have
> left; don’t know why Hampshire would suffer that more than NM as a whole,
> but to compare a county to SF city could be suspect.
>
> 3. Are there any differences in cause-of-death reporting across regions,
> which could interact with the profile of things people die of in each
> region to produce a bias in total counts by category?
>
> 4 Does climate matter to severity of infection?  If we looked at all areas
> grouped by relative humidity and tried to control statistically for
> everything else, would we find that being in a mosquito infested bog causes
> deeper-lung infections than being out west in the moon-dry silica grit,
> pollen, and forest-fire smoke?
>
> 5. Did Luhan-Grisham do a better job with shutdowns and public-health
> interventions than Barker?  Did she obtain better compliance with
> guidelines, of the state as a whole or relative to particular counties?  I
> think we know that masking not only reduces frequency of infections, but
> also reduces frequency of severe infections among those that do happen, by
> delivering lower viral loads.  So distancing and masking practices could
> affect both total numbers and CFR.
>
>
>
> Probably one could add hypotheses.  When the epidemiologists have time to
> pursue such luxury science, it will be interesting to learn how many
> significant dummy variables they find.
>
>
>
> Eric
>
>
>
>
>
> On Jan 17, 2021, at 1:54 PM, <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> <
> thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> CFR for Santa Fe is 94/8629 = .011
>
> CFR for NM as a whole is 2,912/162,893 = .018
>
> CFR for Hampshire County is 219/4952 = .044
>
> CFR for MA as a whole is  13,583/465,726 = .030
>
>
>
>
>
> So the question remains, why am I four times less likely to die if I get
> sick here in Santa Fe, than if I go back to Hampshire County?  Putting
> aside the fallacy of induction.   The whole thing is a little crazy because
> Hampshire county includes none of the big Massachusetts hot spots.  I
> suppose it’s imponderable, but I just though I would see what the list
> thinks about it.
>
>
>
> N
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,2qqNHDoqmyarZ2prg9ooAPRQpy0DGUrSaD-A416theUlxuB7xq03IGfgTI_KObP4ezHuSYYrKaQV3Ttn6fchitLlZGiB9Kw9pxhbKMWqH0_yhA,,&typo=1>
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Alexander Rasmus
> *Sent:* Sunday, January 17, 2021 12:20 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] FW: [EXT] Your Coronavirus Tracker
>
>
>
> Nick,
>
>
>
> You're making this harder than it has to be. The nyt gives you total cases
> and total deaths directly. You can divide total deaths by total cases to
> get the case fatality rate.
>
>
>
> CFR for Santa Fe is 94/8629 = .011
>
> CFR for NM as a whole is 2,912/162,893 = .018
>
> CFR for Hampshire County is 219/4952 = .044
>
> CFR for MA as a whole is  13,583/465,726 = .030
>
>
>
> Best,
>
> Alex
>
>
>
> On Sun, Jan 17, 2021 at 10:31 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Dear Mathematically Competent Colleagues,
>
>
>
> See below.
>
>
>
> Do you agree that the population case rate divided by the population
> divided by the population death rate is equal to case fatality rate? If so,
> the case fatality rate in Santa Fe County is very low, a little over one
> percent whereas the case fatality rate in Hampshire County, Massachusetts,
> (where I have not been for a year but has a comparable population) is
>  little over 4 percent.  I tried to add King County Wa, where Glen is,
> because it was an early participant in the pandemic as was Massachusetts,
> but the tracker wont let me add new entries, today.  The case fatality rate
> in MA is a tad under 5%, if my calculations are correct.  In other words,
> if you catch covid in MA, with the world’s fanciest hospitals, you 4+ times
> more likely to die than if you catch it in New Mexico.  Now, I was tempted
> to attribute this to the hospitals: i.e, terminal cases were coming into MA
> hospitals from other states, but Hampshire County doesn’t HAVE any fancy
> hospitals.
>
>
>
> Hopefully this all because I am dividing reciprocals wrong.  Does
> [1/a]/[1/b] = b/a?
>
>
>
> n
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,2GittFBZAZZ2GGrkHPy1-eSNSGS-v6yNKc5cwpjUXNHEgwoCzPGkiKmtcQA6ZsBmSVGRrejCzcAJp5AI5QjW8vgw7gRosYjDelBqF3oL33OzAD4JBZv1UA,,&typo=1>
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* The New York Times <nytdirect at nytimes.com>
> *Sent:* Sunday, January 17, 2021 7:38 AM
> *To:* nthompson at clarku.edu
> *Subject:* [EXT] Your Coronavirus Tracker
>
>
>
> The latest numbers from New Mexico, Santa Fe County, N.M., Massachusetts, …
>
> View in browser
> <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/OzmXHBF95LRKrGjdBtSwdg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9jb3ZpZC1jYXNlcy1kZWF0aHMtdHJhY2tlci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA>
> |nytimes.com
> <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/tfjriY9JCsjGOlJl5kAf8g~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0S3aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA>
>
> [image: Coronavirus Tracker]
> <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/OzmXHBF95LRKrGjdBtSwdg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9jb3ZpZC1jYXNlcy1kZWF0aHMtdHJhY2tlci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA>
>
> January 17, 2021
>
> *The latest U.S. coronavirus data from the places that matter most to you.*
>
>
> New Mexico
>
> Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in New Mexico
> fell to *1,134* yesterday, a *5 percent decrease* from the day before.
> Since January of last year, at least *1 in 13* people who live in New
> Mexico have been infected, and at least *1 in 720* have died.
>
> *ON JAN. 16*
>
> *DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS*
>
> *PER 100,000*
>
> *14-DAY CHANGE*
>
> *TOTAL REPORTED*
>
> *Cases*
>
> 1,088
>
> 1,134
>
> 54
>
> –3%
>
> 162,893
>
> *Deaths*
>
> 36
>
> 25
>
> 1.21
>
> –18%
>
> 2,912
>
> *Hospitalized*
>
> 632
>
> 685
>
> 33
>
> –11%
>
> MAPS & CHARTS:  *NEW MEXICO*
> <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/1Boobgzp2erEZmAiAXlgrg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TsaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9uZXctbWV4aWNvLWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLWNhc2VzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MTg1JmVtYz1lZGl0X3ljdF8yMDIxMDExNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yNjEwOSZubD1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy10cmFja2VyJnJlZ2lfaWQ9NTcwMzYwODcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD00OTUzNyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9MWRjNmYxNWEzMGJlMmQ0NzEyZmFlNWYwZTVhOWE2NzlXA255dEIKX_3HPQRgzyklwVIUbnRob21wc29uQGNsYXJrdS5lZHVYBAAAAAA~>
>
>
>
> *Did someone forward you this email? Build your own daily Covid tracker
> <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/OzmXHBF95LRKrGjdBtSwdg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9jb3ZpZC1jYXNlcy1kZWF0aHMtdHJhY2tlci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA>.*
> United States
>
> Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in the United
> States fell to *224,499* yesterday, a *3 percent decrease* from the day
> before. Since January of last year, at least *1 in 14* people who live in
> the United States have been infected, and at least *1 in 838* have died.
>
> *ON JAN. 16*
>
> *DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS*
>
> *PER 100,000*
>
> *14-DAY CHANGE*
>
> *TOTAL REPORTED*
>
> *Cases*
>
> 201,732
>
> 224,499
>
> 68
>
> +9%
>
> 23,813,966
>
> *Deaths*
>
> 3,353
>
> 3,319
>
> 1.00
>
> +27%
>
> 395,882
>
> *Hospitalized*
>
> 126,139
>
> 129,008
>
> 39
>
> +5%
>
> MAPS & CHARTS:  *UNITED STATES*
> <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/OEGEH4uZx6jrklI8oSb5Bg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy11cy1jYXNlcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA>
>
>
> Santa Fe County, N.M.
>
> Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in Santa Fe
> County fell to *64* yesterday, a *9 percent decrease* from the day
> before. Since January of last year, at least *1 in 17* people who live in
> Santa Fe County have been infected, and at least *1 in 1,600* have died.
>
> *ON JAN. 16*
>
> *DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS*
>
> *PER 100,000*
>
> *14-DAY CHANGE*
>
> *TOTAL REPORTED*
>
> *Cases*
>
> 67
>
> 64
>
> 42
>
> +5%
>
> 8,629
>
> *Deaths*
>
> 3
>
> 1
>
> 0.76
>
> –20%
>
> 94
>
> MAPS & CHARTS:  *NEW MEXICO*
> <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/1Boobgzp2erEZmAiAXlgrg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TsaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9uZXctbWV4aWNvLWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLWNhc2VzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MTg1JmVtYz1lZGl0X3ljdF8yMDIxMDExNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yNjEwOSZubD1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy10cmFja2VyJnJlZ2lfaWQ9NTcwMzYwODcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD00OTUzNyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9MWRjNmYxNWEzMGJlMmQ0NzEyZmFlNWYwZTVhOWE2NzlXA255dEIKX_3HPQRgzyklwVIUbnRob21wc29uQGNsYXJrdS5lZHVYBAAAAAA~>
>
>
> Massachusetts
>
> Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in
> Massachusetts fell to *5,513* yesterday, a *4 percent decrease* from the
> day before. Since January of last year, at least *1 in 15* people who
> live in Massachusetts have been infected, and at least *1 in 507* have
> died.
>
> *ON JAN. 16*
>
> *DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS*
>
> *PER 100,000*
>
> *14-DAY CHANGE*
>
> *TOTAL REPORTED*
>
> *Cases*
>
> 5,799
>
> 5,513
>
> 80
>
> +12%
>
> 465,726
>
> *Deaths*
>
> 74
>
> 73
>
> 1.05
>
> +3%
>
> 13,583
>
> *Hospitalized*
>
> 2,197
>
> 2,211
>
> 32
>
> –2%
>
> MAPS & CHARTS:  *MASSACHUSETTS*
> <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/iVpXGTrAwRwvueOi-sEViA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TvaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9tYXNzYWNodXNldHRzLWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLWNhc2VzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MTg1JmVtYz1lZGl0X3ljdF8yMDIxMDExNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yNjEwOSZubD1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy10cmFja2VyJnJlZ2lfaWQ9NTcwMzYwODcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD00OTUzNyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9MWRjNmYxNWEzMGJlMmQ0NzEyZmFlNWYwZTVhOWE2NzlXA255dEIKX_3HPQRgzyklwVIUbnRob21wc29uQGNsYXJrdS5lZHVYBAAAAAA~>
>
>
> Hampshire County, Mass.
>
> Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in Hampshire
> County fell to *66* yesterday, a *6 percent decrease* from the day
> before. Since January of last year, at least *1 in 32* people who live in
> Hampshire County have been infected, and at least *1 in 734* have died.
>
> *ON JAN. 16*
>
> *DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS*
>
> *PER 100,000*
>
> *14-DAY CHANGE*
>
> *TOTAL REPORTED*
>
> *Cases*
>
> 65
>
> 66
>
> 41
>
> +11%
>
> 4,952
>
> *Deaths*
>
> 5
>
> 2
>
> 0.98
>
> –35%
>
> 219
>
> MAPS & CHARTS:  *MASSACHUSETTS*
> <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/iVpXGTrAwRwvueOi-sEViA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TvaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9tYXNzYWNodXNldHRzLWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLWNhc2VzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MTg1JmVtYz1lZGl0X3ljdF8yMDIxMDExNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yNjEwOSZubD1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy10cmFja2VyJnJlZ2lfaWQ9NTcwMzYwODcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD00OTUzNyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9MWRjNmYxNWEzMGJlMmQ0NzEyZmFlNWYwZTVhOWE2NzlXA255dEIKX_3HPQRgzyklwVIUbnRob21wc29uQGNsYXJrdS5lZHVYBAAAAAA~>
>
>
> Harris County, Texas
>
> Known cases are going down. The average number of new cases in Harris
> County fell to *3,093* yesterday, a *3 percent decrease* from the day
> before. Since January of last year, at least *1 in 17* people who live in
> Harris County have been infected, and at least *1 in 1,248* have died.
>
> *ON JAN. 16*
>
> *DAILY AVG. IN LAST 7 DAYS*
>
> *PER 100,000*
>
> *14-DAY CHANGE*
>
> *TOTAL REPORTED*
>
> *Cases*
>
> 3,110
>
> 3,093
>
> 66
>
> +23%
>
> 281,422
>
> *Deaths*
>
> 54
>
> 28
>
> 0.59
>
> +104%
>
> 3,777
>
> MAPS & CHARTS:  *TEXAS*
> <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/ppxvG31hgzXhNSrhz6LGXw~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRh5sLHP0TnaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy90ZXhhcy1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy1jYXNlcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE4NSZlbWM9ZWRpdF95Y3RfMjAyMTAxMTcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjYxMDkmbmw9Y29yb25hdmlydXMtdHJhY2tlciZyZWdpX2lkPTU3MDM2MDg3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDk1MzcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTFkYzZmMTVhMzBiZTJkNDcxMmZhZTVmMGU1YTlhNjc5VwNueXRCCl_9xz0EYM8pJcFSFG50aG9tcHNvbkBjbGFya3UuZWR1WAQAAAAA>
>
>
>
> Source: New York Times database of reports from state and local health
> agencies and hospitals. Population and demographic data from Census Bureau.
> Hospitalization data from the Covid Tracking Project.
>
>
>
> 14-day change trends are calculated with 7-day averages. Numbers may be
> revised to reflect improvements in data reporting. View your tracker
> online
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