[FRIAM] of straw and steel

[David Eric Smith]

Hi Merle,

The terms you cite are not jargon for me so I will lack the familiarity with the social circle that uses them today that you have.

The priorities under the name “circular economy” sound like things I know through readings like Sir Albert Howard’s The Soil and Health, which Howard structures around what he calls “the law of return”, or points made by Aldo Leopold in A Sand County Almanac.  The feeds I have had on this come mainly through people at the Leopold Center for sustainable ag at Iowa State, which the Rs finally managed to completely cut off from any public support in 2017, effectively killing it off after many decades in which it was a paradigm maker.  In some sense one would consider this the commonsense foundation of all understanding of ecology, and the premise that any long-term sustainable economy must have this aspect of ecological design.  So I tend to take these as a common starting point for discussion, and want to get to the places we get snagged of stuck, which keep us from following them out.

On Doughnut, I see from Wikipedia the paper for Oxfam from which the term was coined.  The parts of that that I think I have spent the most time on are the steady-staters, like Herman Daly (who is the Doyen as far as it has been presented to me) and then later-generation followers of mostly-Herman’s ideas, like Joshua Farley or Peter Victor. But I think there is a very large community of steady-staters now, and all of them would also take as their premise the start in planetary boundaries.  I think they also would follow a sort of Buddhist practicality that misery is not a goal; one wants enough sustenance to not be in material desperation as a starting point, though with too-large population even the realizability of that becomes debatable.

I tend not to prefer throwing out things that took centuries to build, as solutions to other problems that we forget when we no longer live under them, as beyond reform and incorrigible.  (RBG’s throwing away the umbrella because you are not getting wet.)  I won’t use keywords like Bretton Woods because I lack the depth to understand the implications that go into them in the current political discourse.  But education for skills, including difficult, narrow, or abstract ones, is something that I think contributes to a good life and not something I want to lose.  

If I had to summarize my own view of the goal and the problem, I would probably start by saying there are three resources available (referring to individual people) but needing investment to develop: talent, character, and preparation.  To really get the best life and community out of talent, we need large diversity of opportunities at all stages, because talent undiscovered through experience never even has a chance to get developed.  Then we also need many choice-points to change tracks, so that talents that can get recognized in any of the vast diversity of areas where people could have them can then be followed out.  Character and community and those things are probably not so much in need of system design, as of cultural reinforcement along lines that are broadly appreciated in long-standing traditional discourse.  Preparation requires design of whole life-course pipelines, and that again is an institutional matter.  It is good to recognize that talents and character have independent existence from preparation, but would be very wrong to suppose that preparation doesn’t matter.  Trying to affirmative-action our way to some better solution at a few points in higher ed, in a society that creates vastly unequal opportunities across the whole developmental course, limits the best outcomes we can get.  It reminds me of using medications to manage diabetes and heart disease, rather than having a life and a diet that don’t create those diseases in the first place.  The medications are better than morbidity and mortality, but a long life of medicated ill-health is not what we should settle for.  The universities try to reach back and support other ed levels here and there, which again counts for something.  But ultimately what is required is a public commitment, and the universities alone are too small to have control over what needs to be moved.

In looking at the reviews to the two books on Meritocracy, I felt like I was back in Moby Dick, reading Melville’s summary of Locke and Hume as two whales on either side of the ship.  Would be good to read them both.  Would be good to have breathing space to read anything….

Eric



> On Jul 6, 2021, at 6:06 AM, Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> David, you have highlighted education as a problem to "solve" within our present economic system.  It's too late to "fix" the Bretton Woods system.  We have to build a new one, which opens up many adjacent possibilities that are now beyond reach. What do you think about the new models (not really new but possibly transitional) like the "Circular economy" or the "Doughnut economy"?
> 
>  ideas
> 
> On Mon, Jul 5, 2021 at 1:02 PM David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu <mailto:desmith at santafe.edu>> wrote:
> Merle, 
> 
> From what I have read or heard, the return in benefit per cost for social mobility is much higher for community colleges than for even state-school university-style higher-ed, and their costs have (I think) remained fairly contained.  So if we were to ask where we could spend money now and help a lot without the delays and wrestling of a system restructure, that seems to be a sure one.
> 
> I was concerned that for higher ed as for medical stuff, public funding is only achievable sustainably if it is done together with reduction of costs.  This was what bothered me in the sound-bite level descriptions during the presidential campaigns, though as I understand e.g. Sanders’s current position, he is advocating for community colleges at least for now, so reasonable.  I am reluctant to support public payment of a thoroughly corrupted system, because that just ratifies and bankrolls it, which is where we have been in agriculture for so many decades.  
> 
> EricC’s note was for me very helpful, but it throws me back into a confusion.  If need-based aid is the main driver of cost inflation, and the need-based aid is what we are trying to keep, then what are the elements we can change to remove needless costs?  I think back to the fact that I paid about 12k/year as an undergrad, in the middle 1980s, for an education that was arguably as good as could be had anywhere in the world.  I had 2k/year scholarships through my mother’s company, which seemed a lot to me (as a kid from nowhere who knew nothing), and I could earn 3k in a summer doing simple technical work for a land surveyor.  Add another 4k/year in loans, and the remainder was a payment my parents could afford.  (I remember, though, years of rage by my father toward the end of my high school, when he was terrified it would be an amount he could not afford.)  When I read that state schools are routinely costing 65k/year sticker price, and the private non-profits even worse, I don’t know how to get my head around what-all has been built in such a different way that it drives all those costs but seems an inoperable disease, infused throughout the patient.  Some is just dollar value-reduction, but when I hear about a whole generation of kids coming out of school with hundreds of k$ loans, it seems completely incomparable to the 12-13k I had, with deferred interest accrual, and which I could pay back out of a graduate TA stipend if I was very frugal, by about the time I got out of grad school.  So I didn’t even end up paying an interest overhead on it.  
> 
> I would be dismayed to see the discussion go back into the conventional sound-bites of “too much regulation”, though I believe most university administrators will assert that is a large source.  I don’t rule out that regulatory bloat and bad design is a problem, though I am inclined to view it more as I would view software bloat and bad design: we understand what priorities drive it, but that doesn’t mean either that there isn’t a need for some kinds, nor does it imply that under different priorities it could be done better.
> 
> Would be good to see a nuts-and-bolts comparison of system elements across countries, to see what can be different and how cost and performance are affected by each change.
> 
> Eric
> 
> 
> 
>> On Jul 6, 2021, at 4:14 AM, Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com <mailto:merlelefkoff at gmail.com>> wrote:
>> 
>> Am I the only one who thinks all higher education (before grad school--and maybe even that too) should be free in a rich democratic (sort of) society?  I'm not sure how to avoid the issue of who gets to go--merit is the sticky wicket.  I also think we need to re-institute the draft.  Both of these initiatives might help to even things out.
>> 
>> On Mon, Jul 5, 2021 at 10:38 AM Barry MacKichan <barry.mackichan at mackichan.com <mailto:barry.mackichan at mackichan.com>> wrote:
>> I can endorse both Sandel’s Tyrrany of Merit and Wilkerson’s Caste. Also I highly recommend Wilkerson’s earlier book, The Warmth of Other Suns about the great migration in the early 20th century of blacks from the south to the north and California. An interesting factoid is how important Lordsburg was to those going to California.
>> 
>> I haven’t decided what to do with the knowledge I got from these books, but it is hard to ignore it.
>> 
>> —Barry
>> 
>> On 2 Jul 2021, at 21:33, thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>> 
>> EricS,
>>  
>> Have you looked at Sandel’s Tyranny of Merit or Wilkerson’s Caste?
>>  
>> If on thinks hard enough about “merit” it becomes deeply confusing.  The idea of Merit is something that I got on my own, right?  So working back from now to birth whence exactly did I get that merit.  Even what I got from my genes was random right.  At what point do get to embrace my merit as of my own making?  So far as me, myself, is concerned, it’s all luck all the way down. That is what the declaration of independence means when it says that all [humans] are created equal. 
>>  
>> Nick
>>  
>> Nick Thompson
>> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,JGErGkFl3ZxOjIrrCAWIDis3A-4siD3v0vD4Vy5pAIDRs0ZmqGQayWNy46xHObGTWmcFkB_B1O7Xgwn2h6Yw1GzH_9o1oPAfEBH2Zuhg-y-OT5fkrEZbplU,&typo=1>
>>  
>> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> On Behalf Of David Eric Smith
>> Sent: Friday, July 2, 2021 7:47 PM
>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] of straw and steel
>>  
>> I think there is some version of this for college tuitions, too, though I am partly muddy-headed and what I say next will probably fail the logical map at some points.
>>  
>> The general idea is some combination of what is in Ginsberg’s book
>> https://www.amazon.com/Fall-Faculty-Benjamin-Ginsberg/dp/0199975434 <https://www.amazon.com/Fall-Faculty-Benjamin-Ginsberg/dp/0199975434>
>> but even more so in some article I read in J. Higher Ed or something (which I have not succeeded in finding and I need now for other projects), to the effect that:
>>  
>> 1. There is been a massive cumulative re-allocation of money out of need-based grants and to merit-based scholarships over the past 40 years or so.
>> 2. Sounds good, of course: who could be against rewarding merit.
>> 3. Except that, de facto, what one largely rewards is preparation, which is a proxy for parental wealth and membership in one of the culture’s preferred classes, races, regions, or what-have-you.  The part of this that I am pretty sure is in Ginsberg is also fishing for parental wealth by building snazzy student centers, on-campus water parks, etc.  All that at enormous cost.  The punchline of all this is that WHEN THE BUSINESSMEN TAKE OVER THE CONCEPT OF THE UNIVERSITY, THE UNIVERSITY BECOMES A BUSINESS.  So, monies spent, such as tuition deferment whether called grant or scholarships, is in their worldview VENTURE CAPITAL.  (That was what was in the JHE article.)  And the return that venture capital is seeking is parental tuition money.
>>  
>> So how does this map to Glen’s EricC’s comments: The nominal tuition is very high (4x what it was in the 1970s, per faculty actually teaching or doing research).  That high tuition isn’t actually cost-received from most parents, because a significant fraction of it was spent either giving their kids scholarships, building water parks and student centers, or whatever.  However: if they had given it in need-based grants, they wouldn’t be getting _anything_ from the parents.  So in the businessman’s world, the investment gathered a maximized monetary profit, which was the criterion for how to make it.  
>>  
>> As in EricC’s point below, there will be some very rich parents with kids so lazy or dull that they aren’t well-prepared even with opportunities, so one can’t give them scholarships, and those will pay the sticker price.  Those are the ones who buy the article at $19, or medical products or services at list price.  High profit but small margin on them.
>>  
>>  
>> In all the recent and ongoing conversations about tuition jubilee or free college in the US, I worry that everything real and solvable gets ruled out before we ever start, because the above characterization of the real business model isn’t front and center.  Not very different for medical products and services (I am trying not to use the completely bleached expression “health care”), though that has been around long enough that a fuller story is not so uncommon to find.
>>  
>> It is right that we have mortgaged a whole generation of kids with unplayable tuition loans, and probably somebody should eat that cost.  Kind of like when German banks bought junk mortgage bonds in the US, they should actually have been allowed to fail for having not done due diligence, rather than being bailed out by a government that then had to get the money to float them by leaning on somebody else (the Irish, the Italians).  That of course doesn’t really work for the reasons correctly given in Minsky’s Ratchet
>> https://www.amazon.com/Stabilizing-Unstable-Economy-Hyman-Minsky/dp/0071592997 <https://www.amazon.com/Stabilizing-Unstable-Economy-Hyman-Minsky/dp/0071592997>
>> But the threat of it somehow should be used, while the problem is building, to keep the banks doing due diligence, and to stop the schools from hiking tuition and spending to profit on the margin, or medical products and services skyrocketing as a negotiating point against insurance companies, etc.  The system either gets fixed as a system, or not at all.
>>  
>> There must be a really great book somewhere, which gets the data and the economics better than I can, and also explains this clearly enough that it can be an everyman’s book.  It’s messy and a bait indirect, but it’s not so hard as to be incomprehensible.  Does anybody know such a book?  
>>  
>> Eric
>>  
>> 
>> 
>> On Jul 3, 2021, at 5:51 AM, Eric Charles <eric.phillip.charles at gmail.com <mailto:eric.phillip.charles at gmail.com>> wrote:
>>  
>> Something Glen's analysis,  there are MANY things in the modern economy that fit things model,  including healthcare.  
>>  
>> The insurance companies demand a steep discount in procedures.
>> The hospital's have costs to cover. 
>> The only possible consequence is to dramatically increase the sticker price.  There hospital doesn't expect someone to pay that much for a major procedure,  they expect bulk buyers (i.e., insurance companies) to drive buisness at ther bulk price. (If some random person does pay sticker price every so often,  all the better, but that's not ther primary goal.) 
>>  
>> Mattress companies, clothing stores,  etc. that have massive sales 3/4th of the year are doing the same sort of thing. 
>>  
>> See also my continuous complaints about the "Big Mac Index". Only a small % of Big Macs in the U.S. are purchased at sicker price.  The sticker price is primarily intended as something to discount off of. 
>>  
>> On Wed, Jun 30, 2021, 10:56 AM uǝlƃ ☤>$ <gepropella at gmail.com <mailto:gepropella at gmail.com>> wrote:
>> Maybe. But remember, despite the prescriptive linguists out there: a) "troll" is not an insult and b) it can be accidental.
>> 
>> All 3 of Russ' "people with grants", Barry's "rent seeking", and Pieter's "publishing profits are bad for science" responses are a trawler's delight! Rather than talk about the Strawman fallacy and it's variations, we're talking ... [sigh] again ... about capitalism and money.
>> 
>> Call it naivete if you want. But it was a very effective troll.
>> 
>> On 6/30/21 7:47 AM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>> > Oh, I see.  The point is to make getting the individual item so expensive that it just balances driving to the library (or doing ILL) with subscribing to the Journal.  It's pure manipulation; costs have nothing to do with it.  
>> > 
>> > Glen, I think you persistently confuse naivete with trolling. 
>> 
>> -- 
>> ☤>$ uǝlƃ
>> 
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>> -- 
>> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
>> Center for Emergent Diplomacy
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> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
> Center for Emergent Diplomacy
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