[FRIAM] Drones to detect wildfires
Steve Smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Tue May 25 21:44:58 EDT 2021
As Stephen already knows well, *these* were in all of the lookout towers
before modern tech finally meant humans didn't need to man them 24/7
during fire season. A precision, calibrated "lazy susan" with a map
and a "protractor" for measuring altitude angle to a fire. The Simtable
work Stephen describes is a highly efficient and accurate replacement
for this art/skill (and beyond), even before the citizen-mobile cameras
are integrated.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_Fire_Finder
I knew quite a few permanent and short term (usually college summer
students) fire lookouts in my time. The permanent folks got to know
their territory like the back of their hands, as well as the other
lookouts and the local fire crews. My dad had a fire-radio in our
dining room that ran 24/7 during fire season as well. It would have
been fascinating if it hadn't been so "normal" at the time.
I very much appreciate Stephen's Schtick about fires (and other natural
threats/disasters) being much more frightening/threatening when you
don't know where they are and what they are doing, and that good
(collective) awareness is the first step toward "managing" not only the
wildfires themselves, but the people and property they threaten.
The same thing goes for "managing" nature in a broader sense. The more
we know what is actually happening in the short and long term, the
better chance we have of doing something clever, or ... wait for it...
maybe even "wise"? What Merle and I are vying for is an appreciation
that this ~10,000 year old experiment of humans manipulating the
biosphere with significant (and exponentially growing?) leverage has not
gone well (for the biosphere). While First World peoples, especially in
the 1% (or even 50%) wealth category, it all might seem plenty peachy,
but if you ask the myriad folks (and non-human folks) that are enduring
the unintended (usually) consequences of our arrogant mucking about,
they might not be so proud of what we have done.
When the chickens (refugees) come home to roost (Europe dealing with
those displaced by climate change and war throughout north Africa and
the Middle east, the US dealing with Central American refugees, etc ad
nauseum) some of us struggle to figure out how to accommodate them
without giving up "too much" while others simply identify them as a
dangerous, foreign, plague to be repelled or exterminated. Whether the
former OR the latter is even possible is up in the air, but in the
meantime, we continue to either stick with "business as usual" or "rush
forward to the next grande technological (and highly profitable for
*someone*) fix without honestly considering the meta-problem of whether
we really *learn* anything from our mistakes (experiments) except how to
be more efficient at executing the narrow goals we set for ourselves.
Optimization run amok?
I shouldn't be so negative... I know *many* people are honestly trying
to expand their awareness to include that which they were not previously
aware of, not just double down on being more effective at whatever they
set out to be effective at earlier in life (as individuals or as cultures).
I accept (reluctantly) the truism that "the only way out is through".
There is huge momentum in the human project, or more to the point, the
Homo Faber project. Man the Maker. /Sapiens/ means knowledgeable or
wise, I do believe we've done a fair job of living up to the former, I
think the latter is very much a work in progress.
Meanwhile, pedal-to-the-medal, drill-baby-drill, burn baby burn,
gangway, don't look down (or back)!
On 5/25/21 12:22 PM, Stephen Guerin wrote:
> I don't think drones aren't an efficient choice for detection.
> Stationary PTZ cameras on ridgetops and citizen phone camera reporting
> along with 911 calls are soon enough. Where drones are valuable
> preliminary mapping to fill in gaps of existing camera viewsheds to
> get an early sizeup.
>
> We are working with www.alertwildfire.org
> <http://www.alertwildfire.org> to calibrate their 1000 cameras on the
> ridgetops in the 5 western states of CA, OR, WA, ID and NV. Our bit is
> solving for camera pose based on observations of stars to solve for
> the 9 degrees of freedom of a camera (x, y, z, yaw, pitch, roll, horiz
> field of view, vert field of view and lens distortion)
>
> You can see a map of the cameras that we have robotic control of hear
> with historical imagery:
>
> http://www.alertwildfire.org/tahoe/index.html?camera=Axis-SodaRidge1&v=7a7f1c3
> <http://www.alertwildfire.org/tahoe/index.html?camera=Axis-SodaRidge1&v=7a7f1c3>
>
> Once a camera is calibrated each pixel maps to a lat/long if it
> intersects the terrain or triangulating 3D points with multiple
> cameras for sky-based features.
>
> You can see how we detect locations of fire starts after lightning
> strikes on the LNU Complex last summer in Sonama here:
> https://youtu.be/oVAwvs4k1n0 <https://youtu.be/oVAwvs4k1n0>
>
> All compute and modeling/sim is in the browser with the camera
> projections using WebGL and rendering to 3D terrain.
>
> And how we track perimeters on this example Adams Fire here:
> https://youtu.be/lP7-UhZQ4IY <https://youtu.be/lP7-UhZQ4IY>
>
> And here is some live AI looking for smoke in Sonoma that we then map:
> https://fire.aiir.ai/sonoma <https://fire.aiir.ai/sonoma>
>
> We can also calibrate ad hoc imagery coming from citizens based on
> common features in already calibrated images or by geopoints or the
> stars. Here's an example on the Maria Fire where we took imagery from
> Twitter from a private pilot and a second imager from citizen near the
> freeway.
> https://youtu.be/aJpgDzFhXng <https://youtu.be/aJpgDzFhXng>
>
> _______________________________________________________________________
> Stephen.Guerin at Simtable.com <mailto:stephen.guerin at simtable.com>
> CEO, Simtable http://www.simtable.com <http://www.simtable.com/>
> 1600 Lena St #D1, Santa Fe, NM 87505
> office: (505)995-0206 mobile: (505)577-5828
> twitter: @simtable
> z <http://zoom.com/j/5055775828>oom.simtable.com <http://oom.simtable.com>
>
>
> On Tue, May 25, 2021 at 11:54 AM Pieter Steenekamp
> <pieters at randcontrols.co.za <mailto:pieters at randcontrols.co.za>> wrote:
>
> from wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_biology
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_biology>
>
> *Synthetic biology* (*SynBio*) is a multidisciplinary area of
> research that seeks to create new biological parts, devices, and
> systems, or to redesign systems that are already found in nature.
>
> It is a branch of science that encompasses a broad range of
> methodologies from various disciplines, such as biotechnology
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology>, genetic engineering
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_engineering>, molecular
> biology
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molecular_biology>, molecular
> engineering
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molecular_engineering>, systems
> biology <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systems_biology>, membrane
> science
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Model_lipid_bilayer>, biophysics
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biophysics>, chemical and
> biological engineering
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_engineering>, electrical
> and computer engineering
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrical_engineering>, control
> engineering
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Control_engineering> and evolutionary
> biology <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evolutionary_biology>.
>
> Due to more powerful genetic engineering
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_engineering> capabilities
> and decreased DNA synthesis and sequencing costs
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DNA_sequencing>, the field of
> synthetic biology is rapidly growing. In 2016, more than 350
> companies across 40 countries were actively engaged in synthetic
> biology applications; all these companies had an estimated net
> worth of $3.9 billion in the global market.^[1]
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_biology#cite_note-1>
>
>
> On Tue, 25 May 2021 at 19:49, Merle Lefkoff
> <merlelefkoff at gmail.com <mailto:merlelefkoff at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
> Marcus, I don't understand your term "synthetic biology."
>
> On Tue, May 25, 2021 at 10:24 AM Marcus Daniels
> <marcus at snoutfarm.com <mailto:marcus at snoutfarm.com>> wrote:
>
> So we move from chemical engineering to synthetic
> biology. There will always be mistakes.
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com
> <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> *On Behalf Of *Merle
> Lefkoff
> *Sent:* Tuesday, May 25, 2021 10:05 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Drones to detect wildfires
>
>
>
> Marcus, we've been "experimenting" with our terrestrial
> biome for at least 10-12,000 years (when the first spade
> hit the ground). The time for more experiments is
> over....unless they are experiments that help us
> understand even more deeply how to restore the Mycelium
> networks so that the fungi can solve our climate change
> challenge. This is perhaps the most important task that
> will save us from extinction. See Merlin Sheldrake's
> book, "Entangled Life" for explanation.
>
>
>
> On Tue, May 25, 2021 at 8:41 AM Marcus Daniels
> <marcus at snoutfarm.com <mailto:marcus at snoutfarm.com>> wrote:
>
> We won’t realize anything unless the experiments
> happen. We may not learn from experiments, but that
> is a different issue than the need for the
> experiments.
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com
> <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> *On Behalf Of
> *Steve Smith
> *Sent:* Tuesday, May 25, 2021 7:46 AM
> *To:* friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Drones to detect wildfires
>
>
>
> My father dedicated his life to "forest management" as
> a professional forester, trained in biology and
> range/timber management. He retired "early" after 30
> years somewhat in disgust over the changing of
> aesthetics and perspectives of the United States
> Forest Service. He was dedicated and loyal to the
> spirit of Aldo Leopold and other early
> conservationists. He spent multiple multi-week
> segments every summer leading (most Zuni and Hopi
> native) fire-crews on the West Coast trying ot protec
> homes and "valuable timber". We lived on the edge of
> the first Wilderness (Gila) created (at the behest of
> Aldo Leopold) for 2/3 of my growing up years. My
> father died 10 years ago (Alzheimers), was cremated,
> and we (illegall) spread his cremains in the heart of
> the Gila with a minor amount of guilt as he was a
> (nearly) strict rule follower (yet asked for this).
> Within the year, a serious wildfire complex converged
> at almost the exact spot we scattered him
> (woooOoooooo!).
>
> Even my Trump-voting (2016) sister and husband are now
> acknowledging that his life/profession were dedicated
> to a project that was fundamentally "unwise". They
> *were* (for the most part) doing the best they knew
> how. Most everything they did (from stopping
> wildfires at the first opportunity) to running dual
> bulldozers across landscapes with a chain between them
> to clear the juniper trees from a landscape to allow
> more grass (for cattle) to grow was "well intended",
> but it was *range* and *timber* management not
> "grassland" and "forest" management as they called
> it. The goal was to maximize the "productivity" of
> the public lands under their management (dept of
> Agriculture_. The Bureau of Land Management (BLM
> dept of Interior) was know to be *worse* in the sense
> that their rules on cattle and mining were much less
> careful of protecting the landscape and biome. The
> National Parks were derided by both the Forest Service
> and the BLM for being "much too restrictive" (no
> "harvesting of resources"!!!!)
>
> And yet NOW we realize how "unwise" all of that was.
> But in the same breath we suggest that all of our
> exploitative depradations of the planet's "resources"
> are necessary and possibly "a really good thing"...
> and I am sure that in another 20 or 50 years we will
> be lamenting *all* of the things that today we are
> promoting wholeheartedly in the name of "progress".
>
> This is part of how I became a neo-Luddite.
>
> - Steve
>
> On 5/25/21 2:50 AM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
>
> Let's hope they are a bit more wise in managing
> the wildfires in the future than they were in the
> 20th century.
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/14/california-fire-suppression-forests-tinderbox
> <https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/14/california-fire-suppression-forests-tinderbox>
>
> Before this unprecedented era of mega-blazes on
> the US west coast, California’s forests had a
> canny, ingenious way of avoiding destructive
> worst-case forest fire scenarios. By periodically
> removing the grasses, shrubs and young trees –
> known as the forest understory – California
> <https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/california> avoided
> fires growing to destructive intensities before
> the 20th century. The way this was done? Fire.
>
> Every five to 15 years, groundfires would burn
> through the forest, killing off the undergrowth on
> a regular basis, thus removing the material that
> can act as tinder and kindle fires. Such
> groundfires were sparked by lightning or by
> indigenous people who used sophisticated burning
> practices to facilitate crop growing and hunting.
> Because the fires occurred frequently, the
> understory rarely had time to build up enough
> combustible material for the fires to reach the
> canopies of the mature trees – which is what
> causes the large, devastating fires we are seeing
> now. As a result, overstory trees might get
> wounded by the groundfires, but they would rarely
> get killed.
>
>
>
> On Tue, 25 May 2021 at 10:22, Jochen Fromm
> <jofr at cas-group.net <mailto:jofr at cas-group.net>>
> wrote:
>
> Due to climate change there will be more and
> more wildfires in California, Arizona and New
> Mexico in the coming years. Drones could help
> to detect wildfires early.
>
> https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/sensors/remote-sensing/drones-sensors-wildfire-detection
> <https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/sensors/remote-sensing/drones-sensors-wildfire-detection>
>
>
>
>
> -J.
>
>
>
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> --
>
> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
> Center for Emergent Diplomacy
> emergentdiplomacy.org <http://emergentdiplomacy.org>
>
> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
>
>
> mobile: (303) 859-5609
> skype: merle.lelfkoff2
>
> twitter: @merle110
>
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> --
> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
> Center for Emergent Diplomacy
> emergentdiplomacy.org <http://emergentdiplomacy.org>
> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
>
> mobile: (303) 859-5609
> skype: merle.lelfkoff2
> twitter: @merle110
>
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