[FRIAM] Drones to detect wildfires

Fri May 28 13:18:32 EDT 2021

Steve, 

“Noodling”

Nick 

Nick Thompson

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Steve Smith
Sent: Friday, May 28, 2021 1:07 PM
To: friam at redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Drones to detect wildfires

The most fundamental problem with the general idea of setting objectives and then using any number of clever methods to converge on those objectives is that *at best* they are only as good as the objectives themselves.   The point being made here, of reducing the granularity to a pieceweiz, forward chaining is well motivated IMO, as it seems the "best we know how to do".

In the spirit of "exaptation", and "life is what happens while you are making other plans",  the point of picking an objective and searching for it on an exotic, high dimensional (even fractal) landscape is to provide a heuristic for *exploring* the parts of the landscape you can't even imagine much less predict exists.   I would compare it more to "creative wandering" than "active seeking", though I think the two can be compatible.

“It is good to have an end to journey toward; but it is the journey that matters, in the end.” 

    ― Ursula K. Le Guin,  <https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/817527> The Left Hand of Darkness

On 5/27/21 3:21 PM, Prof David West wrote:

Agreed.  The book uses the notion of steppingstones, An objective that requires traversal of multiple intermediary stepping stones is essentially unattainable. But if you do something it creates new stepping stones that lead who knows where, but you "harvest those" and use them as the basis for just one more step, somewhere, you may very well end up at a place worth getting to; it will be a surprise and almost certainly not where you thought you were going.

davew

On Thu, May 27, 2021, at 9:38 AM, uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ wrote:

OK. I agree that failure on every one of those objectives is assured. 
But the issue is less about setting the objective and measuring the 
outcomes than it is about *harvesting* one's failures. Everyone (with 
any sense) knows we'll fail on the overwhelming majority of those very 
ambitious objectives. But the point of such objectives is not to 
succeed perfectly, as if we're some GA satisfying a singular exogenous 
objective function. Their purpose is an ethical one.

After Pieter's post, it rekindled my desire for a "dashboard" 
presenting measures for each [sub]objective. But, going back to your 
original, correct, objection, non-planned-for measures/effects would 
not be included, biasing our understanding of the progression. Each 
measure becomes nothing more than a bell on a slot machine, injecting a 
little dopamine.

That's what the Pinkers and Shermers of the world seem like to me. Slot 
machine players looking for that dopamine ... like Musk launching a 
stupid car up into space. They're sooooo similar to the junkies I used 
to clean up after in the park behind our old house.

On 5/27/21 8:10 AM, Prof David West wrote:

I must agree and disagree.

Yes, my statement was an oversimplification, but not a caricature. 

The caveat I should have included concerns the "distance" from where we are at the moment and the point at which the objective would be achieved.

I stand by my assertion that for objectives like the UN goals shared by Pieter and the less specific objectives in Steve's post, failure is assuredly more likely than success — based on the arguments presented in the book.

-- 
↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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