[FRIAM] Drones to detect wildfires
Steve Smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Wed May 26 11:32:13 EDT 2021
I think you might be correct Pieter... that attitudes are changing
"fast". I also sympathize with your references to "woke" culture
somehow being it's own toxicity. I'm a big fan of multicultural
(including gender/gender-identity, etc) diversity and believe that our
modern global transportation and communications technologies (mostly
about 100 years old) has exposed us to much more diversity than ever
before and it has been hard to take in. "Wokeness" IMO is a reaction to
the fear and intolerences that are a reaction to having to take in more
and more and more diversity of human identity and nature than ever before.
I have told bits of my own story. I was rarely overtly usurious (by my
own standards) in my youth (with some notable exceptions), but as I
experienced more and became more and more of a systems thinker in
general and as complex systems science matured in front of me, I became
more and more aware that a breakneck forward pell mell tumble of "human
progress" seems to inevitably lead to unintended consequences of greater
and greater magnitude. As our leverage grows
geometrically/exponentially, so do the consequences, compounded by mass
transportation of materials and energy such that *we* don't experience
the consequences of our excesses personally. Somebody somewhere else
lives downstream/wind from the source of externalized costs and a PR
firm sits in the middle "messaging" whatever hints of those consequences
get back to the *consumers* sucking those goods and services through
those long pipes.
I know I often (always?) vilify "human progress" as if it were
fundamentally evil. What I am really railing against is the
(deliberate) conflation between the betterment of circumstances for any
individual, group, or expanse of humanity and the exploitation and abuse
of the remainder of the world (non-human, non-first-world,
non-middle-upper class, etc.).
I am glad you called out the 163k year old "modern human" artifacts and
made the point (I think) that there is something fundamental in our
nature/circumstances that has lead us to be an "invasive species" no
matter where we have immigrated. I know many feel that this kind of
acknowledgement (I'm thinking Proud Boys and similar) is some kind of
"self-hatred", that we should revel in our ability to "pave the planet"
and "dominate the other", etc. I have heard that the theory that the
post-pleistocene megafauna collapse throughout the northern hemisphere
(Eurasia and America) as (modern) humans arrived is maybe not as cut and
dried an example of our direct or even first-order indirect arrival
(that we neither killed them all nor did we out-compete them) but there
is a strong correlation there, as there is with the end of the
Neanderthal who apparently had lived in what appears to be homeostasis
with the ecological niche they found/created when *they* arrived in
Europe. This is all pop-science anecdotal confirmation-bias talk.
Someone who has honestly studied these overlapping domains may be able
to poke holes in the details but maybe not in the general gist of my
speculation that (modern) humans are very much "invasive species", not
only opportunistic in slipping into every niche we find, but wedging
them open wider to make them more comfortable for ourselves. From a
strict Darwinian fitness perspective, this seems like a "very good
thing".
It may be nostalgic of me to think that humans would be healthier and
happier in a healthy biosphere rich in diversity of plants and
creatures that were here when we arrived. The Post/Trans humanists,
the progress-at-any-cost, the let's terraform Mars (and the Asteriod
belt and Venus and the moons and rings of the gas giants), the radical
technophiles *may be right* that our insanely clever minds and extended
phenotype of an industrial economy (on bio-nano-macro-engineering) can
outrun the biosphere collapsing behind us in the wake of our
"progress". We (sort of) have so far... the lifespans (and quality of
life) dips each technological leap forward has offered us (agrarian
monocropping gave us ubiquitous calories but reduced nutrition, the
early coal-fueled industrial era gave us quality consumer products and
particulate-filled smog-encrusted cities in Europe), modern industry
(better living through chemistry) gave us modern miracle products and
Superfund sites up and down the east coast and rust belt.
To the extent that we don't acknowledge the extent of the potential
consequences of our actions (exported to someone else's backyard, the
third world, the oceans the atmosphere, the polar caps, our children's
futures) I don't see *how* we can sustain the rate of exploitation we
are clearly capable of. Climate Scientists (except for a few fringe
ringers from industry) agree that we are well on our way to some huge
(and potentially devastating) effects, yet I'd claim that easily half of
the first world doesn't believe (or care?) about this likelihood and the
bulk of the third world either doesn't even know what that means or
feels entirely helpless to do anything but hunker down and hope the
disruption in weather patterns actually improves their regional
conditions rather than forcing them to become refugees to hostile first
world countries.
Deferring to your and Marcus' and other's optimism that we can and will
outrun the consequences (or perhaps Marcus' fatalism that we as a
species are "long of tooth" and perhaps deserve to bring the house down
on our own heads?), I can *hope* that we will find a phase change in the
collective imaginarium around "human progress" not requiring that we
continue to radically aberrate the current homeostasis of the
biosphere. I also believe that mother Gaia is a complex adaptive system
of which we (and all our radical cleverness and extreme technical
leverage) is just a part of and in a few centuries may well be settling
back into a "new normal" where any remaining humans are either encysted
in bubbles to protect ourselves from this "new normal" (and it from us!)
or we will have "cooled our jets" enough that the "new normal" is close
enough to what we (and other extant life forms) have evolved under to
survive *without* hyper-technology to mediate for us.
<rant off>
- Steve
On 5/26/21 1:00 AM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
> I don't question the historical link between human progress and
> hurting the environment. Within walking distance from where I live
> there is a cave where archaeologists led by Curtis Marean found
> evidence of modern humans that lived 162 000 years ago. Curtis opines
> that since then modern humans behaved like an invasive species,
> causing serious harm to the environment wherever they went. My point
> is that there is evidence that this human progress/harming the
> environment link has been happening ever since modern humans set their
> feet on mother earth and it's still happening.
>
> But my subjective observation is that the
> attitude of */pedal-to-the-medal, drill-baby-drill, burn baby burn,
> gangway, don't look down (or back)! /*is changing and it's changing
> very fast. Maybe I'm wrong, but if I compare the attitude of people
> when I was young to now, I observe a big difference. There is now a
> very widespread concern for the environment that was absent when I was
> young. I salute the environmental activists, they have done a great
> job and are still doing a great job in changing the moral values of
> society to be against hurting the environment.
>
> Personally I am both enthusiastically for human progress and totally
> against hurting the environment.
>
> I have open questions:
> 1. Admitting that progress hurt the environment in the past, is there
> reason to believe that it's impossible to have future progress without
> hurting the environment?
> 2. Provided it's possible without hurting the environment, is there
> anything wrong with human progress?
>
> On Wed, 26 May 2021 at 03:45, Steve Smith <sasmyth at swcp.com
> <mailto:sasmyth at swcp.com>> wrote:
>
> As Stephen already knows well, *these* were in all of the lookout
> towers before modern tech finally meant humans didn't need to man
> them 24/7 during fire season. A precision, calibrated "lazy
> susan" with a map and a "protractor" for measuring altitude angle
> to a fire. The Simtable work Stephen describes is a highly
> efficient and accurate replacement for this art/skill (and
> beyond), even before the citizen-mobile cameras are integrated.
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_Fire_Finder
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_Fire_Finder>
>
> I knew quite a few permanent and short term (usually college
> summer students) fire lookouts in my time. The permanent folks
> got to know their territory like the back of their hands, as well
> as the other lookouts and the local fire crews. My dad had a
> fire-radio in our dining room that ran 24/7 during fire season as
> well. It would have been fascinating if it hadn't been so
> "normal" at the time.
>
> I very much appreciate Stephen's Schtick about fires (and other
> natural threats/disasters) being much more frightening/threatening
> when you don't know where they are and what they are doing, and
> that good (collective) awareness is the first step toward
> "managing" not only the wildfires themselves, but the people and
> property they threaten.
>
> The same thing goes for "managing" nature in a broader sense. The
> more we know what is actually happening in the short and long
> term, the better chance we have of doing something clever, or ...
> wait for it... maybe even "wise"? What Merle and I are vying
> for is an appreciation that this ~10,000 year old experiment of
> humans manipulating the biosphere with significant (and
> exponentially growing?) leverage has not gone well (for the
> biosphere). While First World peoples, especially in the 1% (or
> even 50%) wealth category, it all might seem plenty peachy, but if
> you ask the myriad folks (and non-human folks) that are enduring
> the unintended (usually) consequences of our arrogant mucking
> about, they might not be so proud of what we have done.
>
> When the chickens (refugees) come home to roost (Europe dealing
> with those displaced by climate change and war throughout north
> Africa and the Middle east, the US dealing with Central American
> refugees, etc ad nauseum) some of us struggle to figure out how to
> accommodate them without giving up "too much" while others simply
> identify them as a dangerous, foreign, plague to be repelled or
> exterminated. Whether the former OR the latter is even possible
> is up in the air, but in the meantime, we continue to either stick
> with "business as usual" or "rush forward to the next grande
> technological (and highly profitable for *someone*) fix without
> honestly considering the meta-problem of whether we really *learn*
> anything from our mistakes (experiments) except how to be more
> efficient at executing the narrow goals we set for ourselves.
> Optimization run amok?
>
> I shouldn't be so negative... I know *many* people are honestly
> trying to expand their awareness to include that which they were
> not previously aware of, not just double down on being more
> effective at whatever they set out to be effective at earlier in
> life (as individuals or as cultures).
>
> I accept (reluctantly) the truism that "the only way out is
> through". There is huge momentum in the human project, or more
> to the point, the Homo Faber project. Man the Maker. /Sapiens/
> means knowledgeable or wise, I do believe we've done a fair job
> of living up to the former, I think the latter is very much a
> work in progress.
>
> Meanwhile, pedal-to-the-medal, drill-baby-drill, burn baby burn,
> gangway, don't look down (or back)!
>
> On 5/25/21 12:22 PM, Stephen Guerin wrote:
>> I don't think drones aren't an efficient choice for detection.
>> Stationary PTZ cameras on ridgetops and citizen phone camera
>> reporting along with 911 calls are soon enough. Where drones are
>> valuable preliminary mapping to fill in gaps of existing camera
>> viewsheds to get an early sizeup.
>>
>> We are working with www.alertwildfire.org
>> <http://www.alertwildfire.org> to calibrate their 1000 cameras on
>> the ridgetops in the 5 western states of CA, OR, WA, ID and NV.
>> Our bit is solving for camera pose based on observations of stars
>> to solve for the 9 degrees of freedom of a camera (x, y, z, yaw,
>> pitch, roll, horiz field of view, vert field of view and lens
>> distortion)
>>
>> You can see a map of the cameras that we have robotic control of
>> hear with historical imagery:
>>
>> http://www.alertwildfire.org/tahoe/index.html?camera=Axis-SodaRidge1&v=7a7f1c3
>> <http://www.alertwildfire.org/tahoe/index.html?camera=Axis-SodaRidge1&v=7a7f1c3>
>>
>> Once a camera is calibrated each pixel maps to a lat/long if it
>> intersects the terrain or triangulating 3D points with multiple
>> cameras for sky-based features.
>>
>> You can see how we detect locations of fire starts after
>> lightning strikes on the LNU Complex last summer in Sonama here:
>> https://youtu.be/oVAwvs4k1n0 <https://youtu.be/oVAwvs4k1n0>
>>
>> All compute and modeling/sim is in the browser with the camera
>> projections using WebGL and rendering to 3D terrain.
>>
>> And how we track perimeters on this example Adams Fire here:
>> https://youtu.be/lP7-UhZQ4IY <https://youtu.be/lP7-UhZQ4IY>
>>
>> And here is some live AI looking for smoke in Sonoma that we then
>> map:
>> https://fire.aiir.ai/sonoma <https://fire.aiir.ai/sonoma>
>>
>> We can also calibrate ad hoc imagery coming from citizens based
>> on common features in already calibrated images or by geopoints
>> or the stars. Here's an example on the Maria Fire where we took
>> imagery from Twitter from a private pilot and a second imager
>> from citizen near the freeway.
>> https://youtu.be/aJpgDzFhXng <https://youtu.be/aJpgDzFhXng>
>>
>> _______________________________________________________________________
>> Stephen.Guerin at Simtable.com <mailto:stephen.guerin at simtable.com>
>> CEO, Simtable http://www.simtable.com <http://www.simtable.com/>
>> 1600 Lena St #D1, Santa Fe, NM 87505
>> office: (505)995-0206 mobile: (505)577-5828
>> twitter: @simtable
>> z <http://zoom.com/j/5055775828>oom.simtable.com
>> <http://oom.simtable.com>
>>
>>
>> On Tue, May 25, 2021 at 11:54 AM Pieter Steenekamp
>> <pieters at randcontrols.co.za <mailto:pieters at randcontrols.co.za>>
>> wrote:
>>
>> from
>> wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_biology
>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_biology>
>>
>> *Synthetic biology* (*SynBio*) is a multidisciplinary area of
>> research that seeks to create new biological parts, devices,
>> and systems, or to redesign systems that are already found in
>> nature.
>>
>> It is a branch of science that encompasses a broad range of
>> methodologies from various disciplines, such as biotechnology
>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology>, genetic
>> engineering
>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_engineering>, molecular
>> biology
>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molecular_biology>, molecular
>> engineering
>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molecular_engineering>, systems
>> biology
>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systems_biology>, membrane
>> science
>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Model_lipid_bilayer>, biophysics
>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biophysics>, chemical and
>> biological engineering
>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_engineering>, electrical
>> and computer engineering
>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrical_engineering>, control
>> engineering
>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Control_engineering> and evolutionary
>> biology <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evolutionary_biology>.
>>
>> Due to more powerful genetic engineering
>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_engineering> capabilities
>> and decreased DNA synthesis and sequencing costs
>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DNA_sequencing>, the field of
>> synthetic biology is rapidly growing. In 2016, more than 350
>> companies across 40 countries were actively engaged in
>> synthetic biology applications; all these companies had an
>> estimated net worth of $3.9 billion in the global market.^[1]
>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_biology#cite_note-1>
>>
>>
>> On Tue, 25 May 2021 at 19:49, Merle Lefkoff
>> <merlelefkoff at gmail.com <mailto:merlelefkoff at gmail.com>> wrote:
>>
>> Marcus, I don't understand your term "synthetic biology."
>>
>> On Tue, May 25, 2021 at 10:24 AM Marcus Daniels
>> <marcus at snoutfarm.com <mailto:marcus at snoutfarm.com>> wrote:
>>
>> So we move from chemical engineering to synthetic
>> biology. There will always be mistakes.
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com
>> <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> *On Behalf Of
>> *Merle Lefkoff
>> *Sent:* Tuesday, May 25, 2021 10:05 AM
>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee
>> Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Drones to detect wildfires
>>
>>
>>
>> Marcus, we've been "experimenting" with our
>> terrestrial biome for at least 10-12,000 years (when
>> the first spade hit the ground). The time for more
>> experiments is over....unless they are experiments
>> that help us understand even more deeply how to
>> restore the Mycelium networks so that the fungi can
>> solve our climate change challenge. This is perhaps
>> the most important task that will save us from
>> extinction. See Merlin Sheldrake's book, "Entangled
>> Life" for explanation.
>>
>>
>>
>> On Tue, May 25, 2021 at 8:41 AM Marcus Daniels
>> <marcus at snoutfarm.com <mailto:marcus at snoutfarm.com>>
>> wrote:
>>
>> We won’t realize anything unless the experiments
>> happen. We may not learn from experiments, but
>> that is a different issue than the need for the
>> experiments.
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com
>> <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> *On Behalf Of
>> *Steve Smith
>> *Sent:* Tuesday, May 25, 2021 7:46 AM
>> *To:* friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>
>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Drones to detect wildfires
>>
>>
>>
>> My father dedicated his life to "forest
>> management" as a professional forester, trained
>> in biology and range/timber management. He
>> retired "early" after 30 years somewhat in
>> disgust over the changing of aesthetics and
>> perspectives of the United States Forest
>> Service. He was dedicated and loyal to the
>> spirit of Aldo Leopold and other early
>> conservationists. He spent multiple multi-week
>> segments every summer leading (most Zuni and Hopi
>> native) fire-crews on the West Coast trying ot
>> protec homes and "valuable timber". We lived on
>> the edge of the first Wilderness (Gila) created
>> (at the behest of Aldo Leopold) for 2/3 of my
>> growing up years. My father died 10 years ago
>> (Alzheimers), was cremated, and we (illegall)
>> spread his cremains in the heart of the Gila with
>> a minor amount of guilt as he was a (nearly)
>> strict rule follower (yet asked for this).
>> Within the year, a serious wildfire complex
>> converged at almost the exact spot we scattered
>> him (woooOoooooo!).
>>
>> Even my Trump-voting (2016) sister and husband
>> are now acknowledging that his life/profession
>> were dedicated to a project that was
>> fundamentally "unwise". They *were* (for the
>> most part) doing the best they knew how. Most
>> everything they did (from stopping wildfires at
>> the first opportunity) to running dual bulldozers
>> across landscapes with a chain between them to
>> clear the juniper trees from a landscape to allow
>> more grass (for cattle) to grow was "well
>> intended", but it was *range* and *timber*
>> management not "grassland" and "forest"
>> management as they called it. The goal was to
>> maximize the "productivity" of the public lands
>> under their management (dept of Agriculture_.
>> The Bureau of Land Management (BLM dept of
>> Interior) was know to be *worse* in the sense
>> that their rules on cattle and mining were much
>> less careful of protecting the landscape and
>> biome. The National Parks were derided by both
>> the Forest Service and the BLM for being "much
>> too restrictive" (no "harvesting of resources"!!!!)
>>
>> And yet NOW we realize how "unwise" all of that
>> was. But in the same breath we suggest that all
>> of our exploitative depradations of the planet's
>> "resources" are necessary and possibly "a really
>> good thing"... and I am sure that in another 20
>> or 50 years we will be lamenting *all* of the
>> things that today we are promoting wholeheartedly
>> in the name of "progress".
>>
>> This is part of how I became a neo-Luddite.
>>
>> - Steve
>>
>> On 5/25/21 2:50 AM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
>>
>> Let's hope they are a bit more wise in
>> managing the wildfires in the future than
>> they were in the 20th century.
>>
>> https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/14/california-fire-suppression-forests-tinderbox
>> <https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/14/california-fire-suppression-forests-tinderbox>
>>
>> Before this unprecedented era of mega-blazes
>> on the US west coast, California’s forests
>> had a canny, ingenious way of avoiding
>> destructive worst-case forest fire scenarios.
>> By periodically removing the grasses, shrubs
>> and young trees – known as the forest
>> understory – California
>> <https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/california> avoided
>> fires growing to destructive intensities
>> before the 20th century. The way this was
>> done? Fire.
>>
>> Every five to 15 years, groundfires would
>> burn through the forest, killing off the
>> undergrowth on a regular basis, thus removing
>> the material that can act as tinder and
>> kindle fires. Such groundfires were sparked
>> by lightning or by indigenous people who used
>> sophisticated burning practices to facilitate
>> crop growing and hunting. Because the fires
>> occurred frequently, the understory rarely
>> had time to build up enough combustible
>> material for the fires to reach the canopies
>> of the mature trees – which is what causes
>> the large, devastating fires we are seeing
>> now. As a result, overstory trees might get
>> wounded by the groundfires, but they would
>> rarely get killed.
>>
>>
>>
>> On Tue, 25 May 2021 at 10:22, Jochen Fromm
>> <jofr at cas-group.net
>> <mailto:jofr at cas-group.net>> wrote:
>>
>> Due to climate change there will be more
>> and more wildfires in California, Arizona
>> and New Mexico in the coming years.
>> Drones could help to detect wildfires early.
>>
>> https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/sensors/remote-sensing/drones-sensors-wildfire-detection
>> <https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/sensors/remote-sensing/drones-sensors-wildfire-detection>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> -J.
>>
>>
>>
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>> --
>>
>> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
>> Center for Emergent Diplomacy
>> emergentdiplomacy.org <http://emergentdiplomacy.org>
>>
>> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
>>
>>
>> mobile: (303) 859-5609
>> skype: merle.lelfkoff2
>>
>> twitter: @merle110
>>
>>
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>>
>> --
>> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
>> Center for Emergent Diplomacy
>> emergentdiplomacy.org <http://emergentdiplomacy.org>
>> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
>>
>> mobile: (303) 859-5609
>> skype: merle.lelfkoff2
>> twitter: @merle110
>>
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