[FRIAM] Has anybody been lookiung at covid numbers

Sun Nov 21 09:32:52 EST 2021

That looks very similar to the data on the site I'm using. I am focusing on
the "Deaths" chart, because I've been looking at this data a lot, for
almost two years - national and several state - and there is much less of a
predictive relationship between the number of infections and the number of
deaths than most seem to think.
<echarles at american.edu>

On Sun, Nov 21, 2021 at 7:45 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:

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> Nick Thompson
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
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> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Eric Charles
> *Sent:* Sunday, November 21, 2021 12:41 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Has anybody been lookiung at covid numbers
>
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>
> Your numbers are behind a paywall... you could screen shot and paste them
> here if you wanted me to look at them.
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> Mine are from here:  United States COVID: 48,558,229 Cases and 793,539
> Deaths - Worldometer (worldometers.info)
> <https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/>
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> On Sun, Nov 21, 2021 at 1:10 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
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> Hmmm! https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
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> Are we looking at the same data?
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> N
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>
>
> Nick Thompson
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> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
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> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Eric Charles
> *Sent:* Saturday, November 20, 2021 10:13 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Has anybody been lookiung at covid numbers
>
>
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> I haven't looked up Santa Fe's numbers specifically... but if it is
> anything like national numbers, the difference is that last year we were in
> the early stages of a massive uptick, and this year we are in the middle of
> a rapid fall off (with the recent cold snaps having no noticeable effect).
> If you look at the graph below, you will see an upswing starting October
> 18th of last year which peaked January 14th, and by Nov 20th it was
> already 950 a day above where  it started. In contrast, this year we are
> down over 950 a day from the peak on Sept 24th.
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> A winter spike could still happen, but we are over a month out from where
> it started last year, but I don't think it is going to. If the current
> trend continues, we'll be at a negligible number of deaths per day within
> about 2 months. I think that's overly optimistic, but 3-4 months is
> probably very realistic (barring a new variant), even if we allow for a
> modest post-holiday uptick.
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> How that should play into any particular person's particular plans, I
> can't say. Even in the unrealistically-optimistic 2-month scenario, that's
> still 30,000 more deaths. More than double that for the more realistic 4
> month scenario.
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> On Sat, Nov 20, 2021 at 12:37 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
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> Good to hear from you, Jackie.  A fresh voice on the list.  Always
> welcome.  Sometimes we regulars bore ourselves to death.
>
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> We decided not to meet with the extended family in Houston, a hard
> decision that I instantly stopped regretting when I saw the new numbers.
> The only question in my mind is whether we avoid my son’s family for a week
> or two when they return.   People keep telling me about vaccinated people
> they know who have croaked and I am definitely in the vulnerable group …
> age, diabetes, heart disease --.   There are some folks on this list who
> are very good at numbers and have vulnerabilities of their own.  I am
> guessing we will hear from them in time.  I am guessing that unless I am
> planning to stay in my house for the rest of my life, I should probably not
> worry about it too much.
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> Thanks for your message.  Don’t be a stranger.
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>
> Nick Thompson
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
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> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Jacqueline Kazil
> *Sent:* Friday, November 19, 2021 11:10 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Has anybody been lookiung at covid numbers
>
>
>
> Hi! Jackie here. Nick, I too can get hysterical about Covid. I left DC for
> Missouri and lived on a dead-end street in the country with my in-laws for
> almost a year sharing a bedroom with my three year old and newborn. Then my
> mom was in an intensive care situation after an accident - for 52 days.
> This was in Florida during the summer surge -- at one point covid
> positivity rate was > 25% in the county she was in.  I couldn't leave
> Florida, because my baby's daycare in DC has a covid policy that you had to
> quarantine if your house was exposed to a covid positivity rate of >10% &
> my moms hospital had a policy that said you had to quarantine if you leave
> the state of Florida, you had a to quarantine (I didn't understand this
> one. This was a policy for the sake of having a policy. All other states
> were better places to be). With these two policies in play, despite not
> seeing my children for more than a month and having to quit breastfeeding,
> I decided not to travel home... and sometimes life sucks. [As I write this,
> I feel like this is a simulation in the works.]
>
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> In Florida during the time with my mom, I was pushed outside of my comfort
> zone. I was in an environment where a lot of the population feels
> differently than I do about safety. I also was walking into hospitals with
> covid patients where vaccinated nurses were dropping like flies. I gave up
> a little, because of the stress I only had so much energy to worry about
> covid. A friend even convinced me to eat in a restaurant indoors -- barely,
> once.
>
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> I just looked up Santa Fe county, and it is just over 10% covid positivity
> rate.
>
> https://covidactnow.org/us/new_mexico-nm/county/santa_fe_county/?s=25691480
>
> Covid positivity rate is supposed to be a signal of knowledge spreading. I
> would say over 10% right before Thanksgiving is probably a not a good place
> to be. This means it is spreading and people know, but some don't. With
> families getting together -- the "some don't" part is not good.
>
>
>
> With my experience of being in various environments, I would say that if I
> were in a place with a rate of 10% or higher, I would worry enough to
> batten down the hatches for the holidays, because... sometimes life sucks.
> I would limit the number of people I interacted with.
>
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> Also to consider in this equation -- how many people already had covid
> that already counted in the vaccine numbers.
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