[FRIAM] Has anybody been lookiung at covid numbers

Sun Nov 21 12:09:27 EST 2021

On this I find it interesting to look at worldometers and compare some countries in the EU.

If I don’t get some details wrong, infections in Iceland are roughly comparable to those in Germany, and perhaps half of where Austria currently is.

Meanwhile, Germany has death rates roughly comparable to those in the UK, while Iceland’s are below those of Japan (to the extent that one can compare a country with so few people that that means zero deaths most days, and one every now and then).  

Now, Iceland has first-vax about 84%, and second-vax  only about a percent behind.

Germany has proportions below those in the UK, and somewhat above the US, I think I remember the high 60%s or low 70%s.  

So not huge differences in covered fraction, but very large differences (consequences?) in death/infection.

The other thing to say is that the Europeans are mostly into the upswing of their deaths, a few weeks after infections.  In the US the infections are just swinging up, so we don’t have so much we can expect to say about mortality for a few weeks to a month.

But indeed, the numbers look to be getting more complicated to use than simple pattern-mimicking.

Eric

> On Nov 21, 2021, at 9:32 AM, Eric Charles <eric.phillip.charles at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> That looks very similar to the data on the site I'm using. I am focusing on the "Deaths" chart, because I've been looking at this data a lot, for almost two years - national and several state - and there is much less of a predictive relationship between the number of infections and the number of deaths than most seem to think. 
>  <mailto:echarles at american.edu>
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> On Sun, Nov 21, 2021 at 7:45 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> wrote:
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> Nick Thompson
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> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,S8wjQjuNeE-0N1-MBQqPQrEdCDNZQZondQDQYYqaoua0Pk3f-0A4HKQWFIKnfNQM3Sbatw2vkLbSKvNEMxU3QXVBYisThjPNOVzb-PagueGVHY99lfKBuWnD8Q,,&typo=1>
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> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> On Behalf Of Eric Charles
> Sent: Sunday, November 21, 2021 12:41 AM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Has anybody been lookiung at covid numbers
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> Your numbers are behind a paywall... you could screen shot and paste them here if you wanted me to look at them. 
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> Mine are from here:  United States COVID: 48,558,229 Cases and 793,539 Deaths - Worldometer (worldometers.info) <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.worldometers.info%2fcoronavirus%2fcountry%2fus%2f&c=E,1,hMK-2tRcvTzslmk3xGo3Y4JibY1vjxMdvIVGoDtQhKNXHdPvlDAF5xnHjYkG4yAuSDHfchWVWpnExQxKw8I-IhsYnWheFNWhkrm5sBRTPhn0SSJOe-vCIV29&typo=1>
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> On Sun, Nov 21, 2021 at 1:10 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> wrote:
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> Hmmm! https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html <https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html>
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> Are we looking at the same data?
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> Nick Thompson
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> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,fQHaihZni43ZJ_znmAE3MNmJEywrE26JbMQccL5MANpEOPo-IC-jVF3ogrhKvBd4DpT8zfTgHbXm_iuHNGCr3YT-iW-o6Mj1rmtMksBt9b28sjHI&typo=1>
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> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> On Behalf Of Eric Charles
> Sent: Saturday, November 20, 2021 10:13 PM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Has anybody been lookiung at covid numbers
> 
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> I haven't looked up Santa Fe's numbers specifically... but if it is anything like national numbers, the difference is that last year we were in the early stages of a massive uptick, and this year we are in the middle of a rapid fall off (with the recent cold snaps having no noticeable effect). If you look at the graph below, you will see an upswing starting October 18th of last year which peaked January 14th, and by Nov 20th it was already 950 a day above where  it started. In contrast, this year we are down over 950 a day from the peak on Sept 24th. 
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> A winter spike could still happen, but we are over a month out from where it started last year, but I don't think it is going to. If the current trend continues, we'll be at a negligible number of deaths per day within about 2 months. I think that's overly optimistic, but 3-4 months is probably very realistic (barring a new variant), even if we allow for a modest post-holiday uptick. 
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> How that should play into any particular person's particular plans, I can't say. Even in the unrealistically-optimistic 2-month scenario, that's still 30,000 more deaths. More than double that for the more realistic 4 month scenario. 
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> On Sat, Nov 20, 2021 at 12:37 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> wrote:
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> Good to hear from you, Jackie.  A fresh voice on the list.  Always welcome.  Sometimes we regulars bore ourselves to death. 
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> We decided not to meet with the extended family in Houston, a hard decision that I instantly stopped regretting when I saw the new numbers.  The only question in my mind is whether we avoid my son’s family for a week or two when they return.   People keep telling me about vaccinated people they know who have croaked and I am definitely in the vulnerable group … age, diabetes, heart disease --.   There are some folks on this list who are very good at numbers and have vulnerabilities of their own.  I am guessing we will hear from them in time.  I am guessing that unless I am planning to stay in my house for the rest of my life, I should probably not worry about it too much. 
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> Thanks for your message.  Don’t be a stranger.
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> Nick Thompson
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> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,KSMuJmQRR3iYTKqcdyHXhes2lM3aquRY0bpKwZq93flMtPINmzckoTPyBE9alLTv9sKmvyyk9-V4_F9YFofUdHjILJq2GAaFtQ31a7D7_-gv3b00WXWNLn3lJJ3E&typo=1>
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> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> On Behalf Of Jacqueline Kazil
> Sent: Friday, November 19, 2021 11:10 PM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Has anybody been lookiung at covid numbers
> 
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> 
> Hi! Jackie here. Nick, I too can get hysterical about Covid. I left DC for Missouri and lived on a dead-end street in the country with my in-laws for almost a year sharing a bedroom with my three year old and newborn. Then my mom was in an intensive care situation after an accident - for 52 days. This was in Florida during the summer surge -- at one point covid positivity rate was > 25% in the county she was in.  I couldn't leave Florida, because my baby's daycare in DC has a covid policy that you had to quarantine if your house was exposed to a covid positivity rate of >10% & my moms hospital had a policy that said you had to quarantine if you leave the state of Florida, you had a to quarantine (I didn't understand this one. This was a policy for the sake of having a policy. All other states were better places to be). With these two policies in play, despite not seeing my children for more than a month and having to quit breastfeeding, I decided not to travel home... and sometimes life sucks. [As I write this, I feel like this is a simulation in the works.]  
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> In Florida during the time with my mom, I was pushed outside of my comfort zone. I was in an environment where a lot of the population feels differently than I do about safety. I also was walking into hospitals with covid patients where vaccinated nurses were dropping like flies. I gave up a little, because of the stress I only had so much energy to worry about covid. A friend even convinced me to eat in a restaurant indoors -- barely, once. 
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> I just looked up Santa Fe county, and it is just over 10% covid positivity rate. 
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> https://covidactnow.org/us/new_mexico-nm/county/santa_fe_county/?s=25691480 <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fcovidactnow.org%2fus%2fnew_mexico-nm%2fcounty%2fsanta_fe_county%2f%3fs%3d25691480&c=E,1,hLiGx-OQXUDd9ymL2QU_0bveynAsTly8e-rarQn6VlqwJRaUNUE7gVQn5yGlTF4TSRrjCK9J9ByzXXfn80k77g22XTQImNqfZlwkSOk02w,,&typo=1>
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> Covid positivity rate is supposed to be a signal of knowledge spreading. I would say over 10% right before Thanksgiving is probably a not a good place to be. This means it is spreading and people know, but some don't. With families getting together -- the "some don't" part is not good. 
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> With my experience of being in various environments, I would say that if I were in a place with a rate of 10% or higher, I would worry enough to batten down the hatches for the holidays, because... sometimes life sucks. I would limit the number of people I interacted with. 
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> Also to consider in this equation -- how many people already had covid that already counted in the vaccine numbers. 
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