[FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

Sun Sep 12 23:50:11 EDT 2021

Maybe I missed something, but what prompted you to dig up a 16 month old
comment from Marcus to respond to?

On Sun, Sep 12, 2021 at 3:29 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:

> Pollyanna!      (ironic)
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
> On Sat, May 16, 2020, 10:32 AM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Here’s what I expect will probably happen.   The PANDEMIC will be
>> declared over, like Mission Accomplished with W.   There will be a slower
>> burn until fall, and then it will accelerate again.   But people will be
>> acclimate to the death rate, like they acclimate to gun violence.
>> Unemployment and homelessness will soar and be persistent.   Suicides will
>> go up, and be normalized.   Meanwhile, people with the means will
>> self-isolate and be the first to get access to antiviral treatments.  Out
>> in the blood and muck, herd immunity will begin to emerge in at risk
>> populations.   The U.S. will continue to have high prevalence compared to
>> other countries. History will look back on this as a Chernobyl moment,
>> where the prestige of the United States fell to Asia.   And a second term
>> of Trump will ensure it.
>>
>>
>>
>> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Prof David West <
>> profwest at fastmail.fm>
>> *Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>> friam at redfish.com>
>> *Date: *Saturday, May 16, 2020 at 8:25 AM
>> *To: *"friam at redfish.com" <friam at redfish.com>
>> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
>>
>>
>>
>> Steve,
>>
>>
>>
>> Yes the subject line is click-bait. In the body of the message I made a
>> distinction between the disease pandemic and the perceived PANDEMIC. The
>> latter will go away whether or not the disease does.
>>
>>
>>
>> The metrics for the latter would include increased traffic to websites
>> like the Mathematica Individual COVID Risk calculator and less to WHO, CDC,
>> and other overall statistical sites; a noticeable shift from personal
>> interest stories about succuming to COVID to ones about succumbing to
>> economic hardship; gaming floors in Las Vegas casinos opening with lots of
>> assurance that gamblers are at no greater risk than when visiting a grocery
>> store; stories about death rates moving from the front page to the second
>> page or section; significant increase in lawsuits against restrictions with
>> quick, probably out of court, capitulation by governor's; and the central
>> theme of stories about the pandemic, what the science tells, us,
>> whistleblowers, etc will be almost purely political in nature.
>>
>>
>>
>> Going beyond mid-June, I would predict that you will see "wave crests" in
>> terms of cases and deaths, but not "spikes." They will be big enough for
>> the "experts" to claim they are right, but not big enough to trigger any
>> socio-economic response and most people will regard any reporting of same
>> with cynicism. Any attempt to reimpose lock-downs would likely result in
>> furious resistance and widespread civil disobedience.
>>
>>
>>
>> davew
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On Tue, May 12, 2020, at 7:13 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:
>>
>> Dave -
>>
>> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.
>>
>> Ignoring the "bait" that I (and others) took earlier, I'll try to respond
>> to the singular prediction above:
>>
>>
>>
>> What means "end"?   What is a specific statistic that you believe to
>> indicate that the pandemic has ended?
>>
>> From Wikipedia:
>>
>> A *pandemic* (from Greek <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Greek>
>>  πᾶν, *pan*, "all" and δῆμος, *demos*, "people") is an epidemic
>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic> of disease
>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease> that has spread across a large
>> region, for instance multiple continents
>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continents> or worldwide, affecting a
>> substantial number of people. A widespread endemic
>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)> disease with a
>> stable number of infected people is not a pandemic. Widespread endemic
>> diseases with a stable number of infected people such as recurrences of seasonal
>> influenza <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_influenza> are
>> generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the
>> globe rather than being spread worldwide.
>>
>> The WHO published THIS description of phases of a pandemic:
>>
>> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/
>>
>> [image: Image removed by sender.]
>>
>> *In the **post-pandemic** period, influenza disease activity will have
>> returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is expected
>> that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At
>> this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update pandemic
>> preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of recovery
>> and evaluation may be required.*
>>
>>
>>
>> Or maybe some other (measurable) definition?
>>
>> - Steve
>>
>>
>>
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