[FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

Sun Sep 12 23:57:43 EDT 2021

I didn't notice the date.  I thought it was newly posted.  Why would it
have appeared in my email?  Maybe I did a search and saw Marcus's message
by coincidence.  At least my comment was brief.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Sun, Sep 12, 2021, 9:50 PM Gary Schiltz <gary at naturesvisualarts.com>
wrote:

> Maybe I missed something, but what prompted you to dig up a 16 month old
> comment from Marcus to respond to?
>
> On Sun, Sep 12, 2021 at 3:29 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Pollyanna!      (ironic)
>>
>> ---
>> Frank C. Wimberly
>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>
>> 505 670-9918
>> Santa Fe, NM
>>
>> On Sat, May 16, 2020, 10:32 AM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Here’s what I expect will probably happen.   The PANDEMIC will be
>>> declared over, like Mission Accomplished with W.   There will be a slower
>>> burn until fall, and then it will accelerate again.   But people will be
>>> acclimate to the death rate, like they acclimate to gun violence.
>>> Unemployment and homelessness will soar and be persistent.   Suicides will
>>> go up, and be normalized.   Meanwhile, people with the means will
>>> self-isolate and be the first to get access to antiviral treatments.  Out
>>> in the blood and muck, herd immunity will begin to emerge in at risk
>>> populations.   The U.S. will continue to have high prevalence compared to
>>> other countries. History will look back on this as a Chernobyl moment,
>>> where the prestige of the United States fell to Asia.   And a second term
>>> of Trump will ensure it.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Prof David West <
>>> profwest at fastmail.fm>
>>> *Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>>> friam at redfish.com>
>>> *Date: *Saturday, May 16, 2020 at 8:25 AM
>>> *To: *"friam at redfish.com" <friam at redfish.com>
>>> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Steve,
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Yes the subject line is click-bait. In the body of the message I made a
>>> distinction between the disease pandemic and the perceived PANDEMIC. The
>>> latter will go away whether or not the disease does.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> The metrics for the latter would include increased traffic to websites
>>> like the Mathematica Individual COVID Risk calculator and less to WHO, CDC,
>>> and other overall statistical sites; a noticeable shift from personal
>>> interest stories about succuming to COVID to ones about succumbing to
>>> economic hardship; gaming floors in Las Vegas casinos opening with lots of
>>> assurance that gamblers are at no greater risk than when visiting a grocery
>>> store; stories about death rates moving from the front page to the second
>>> page or section; significant increase in lawsuits against restrictions with
>>> quick, probably out of court, capitulation by governor's; and the central
>>> theme of stories about the pandemic, what the science tells, us,
>>> whistleblowers, etc will be almost purely political in nature.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Going beyond mid-June, I would predict that you will see "wave crests"
>>> in terms of cases and deaths, but not "spikes." They will be big enough for
>>> the "experts" to claim they are right, but not big enough to trigger any
>>> socio-economic response and most people will regard any reporting of same
>>> with cynicism. Any attempt to reimpose lock-downs would likely result in
>>> furious resistance and widespread civil disobedience.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> davew
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Tue, May 12, 2020, at 7:13 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:
>>>
>>> Dave -
>>>
>>> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.
>>>
>>> Ignoring the "bait" that I (and others) took earlier, I'll try to
>>> respond to the singular prediction above:
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> What means "end"?   What is a specific statistic that you believe to
>>> indicate that the pandemic has ended?
>>>
>>> From Wikipedia:
>>>
>>> A *pandemic* (from Greek <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Greek>
>>>  πᾶν, *pan*, "all" and δῆμος, *demos*, "people") is an epidemic
>>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic> of disease
>>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease> that has spread across a large
>>> region, for instance multiple continents
>>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continents> or worldwide, affecting a
>>> substantial number of people. A widespread endemic
>>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)> disease with a
>>> stable number of infected people is not a pandemic. Widespread endemic
>>> diseases with a stable number of infected people such as recurrences of seasonal
>>> influenza <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_influenza> are
>>> generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the
>>> globe rather than being spread worldwide.
>>>
>>> The WHO published THIS description of phases of a pandemic:
>>>
>>> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/
>>>
>>> [image: Image removed by sender.]
>>>
>>> *In the **post-pandemic** period, influenza disease activity will have
>>> returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is expected
>>> that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At
>>> this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update pandemic
>>> preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of recovery
>>> and evaluation may be required.*
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Or maybe some other (measurable) definition?
>>>
>>> - Steve
>>>
>>>
>>>
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