[FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

[Gary Schiltz]

What email client and platform are you using?

On Mon, Sep 13, 2021 at 8:37 AM Barry MacKichan <
barry.mackichan at mackichan.com> wrote:

> My email client keeps track of conversations, so if message A today is a
> reply to message B from a year ago, the top of my inbox shows message B
> with a disclosure triangle. Clicking it will show message B — the next part
> of the conversation. In Friam, almost every message gets responses, so
> there a frequently many old messages at the top level of my inbox.
>
> Hmm… This behavior is an option. I’ll go switch it off now…
>
> —Barry
>
> On 12 Sep 2021, at 23:57, Frank Wimberly wrote:
>
> I didn't notice the date.  I thought it was newly posted.  Why would it
> have appeared in my email?  Maybe I did a search and saw Marcus's message
> by coincidence.  At least my comment was brief.
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
> On Sun, Sep 12, 2021, 9:50 PM Gary Schiltz <gary at naturesvisualarts.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Maybe I missed something, but what prompted you to dig up a 16 month old
>> comment from Marcus to respond to?
>>
>> On Sun, Sep 12, 2021 at 3:29 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Pollyanna!      (ironic)
>>>
>>> ---
>>> Frank C. Wimberly
>>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>>
>>> 505 670-9918
>>> Santa Fe, NM
>>>
>>> On Sat, May 16, 2020, 10:32 AM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Here’s what I expect will probably happen.   The PANDEMIC will be
>>>> declared over, like Mission Accomplished with W.   There will be a slower
>>>> burn until fall, and then it will accelerate again.   But people will be
>>>> acclimate to the death rate, like they acclimate to gun violence.
>>>> Unemployment and homelessness will soar and be persistent.   Suicides will
>>>> go up, and be normalized.   Meanwhile, people with the means will
>>>> self-isolate and be the first to get access to antiviral treatments.  Out
>>>> in the blood and muck, herd immunity will begin to emerge in at risk
>>>> populations.   The U.S. will continue to have high prevalence compared to
>>>> other countries. History will look back on this as a Chernobyl moment,
>>>> where the prestige of the United States fell to Asia.   And a second term
>>>> of Trump will ensure it.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Prof David West
>>>> <profwest at fastmail.fm>
>>>> *Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>>>> friam at redfish.com>
>>>> *Date: *Saturday, May 16, 2020 at 8:25 AM
>>>> *To: *"friam at redfish.com" <friam at redfish.com>
>>>> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Steve,
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Yes the subject line is click-bait. In the body of the message I made a
>>>> distinction between the disease pandemic and the perceived PANDEMIC. The
>>>> latter will go away whether or not the disease does.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> The metrics for the latter would include increased traffic to websites
>>>> like the Mathematica Individual COVID Risk calculator and less to WHO, CDC,
>>>> and other overall statistical sites; a noticeable shift from personal
>>>> interest stories about succuming to COVID to ones about succumbing to
>>>> economic hardship; gaming floors in Las Vegas casinos opening with lots of
>>>> assurance that gamblers are at no greater risk than when visiting a grocery
>>>> store; stories about death rates moving from the front page to the second
>>>> page or section; significant increase in lawsuits against restrictions with
>>>> quick, probably out of court, capitulation by governor's; and the central
>>>> theme of stories about the pandemic, what the science tells, us,
>>>> whistleblowers, etc will be almost purely political in nature.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Going beyond mid-June, I would predict that you will see "wave crests"
>>>> in terms of cases and deaths, but not "spikes." They will be big enough for
>>>> the "experts" to claim they are right, but not big enough to trigger any
>>>> socio-economic response and most people will regard any reporting of same
>>>> with cynicism. Any attempt to reimpose lock-downs would likely result in
>>>> furious resistance and widespread civil disobedience.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> davew
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Tue, May 12, 2020, at 7:13 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Dave -
>>>>
>>>> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.
>>>>
>>>> Ignoring the "bait" that I (and others) took earlier, I'll try to
>>>> respond to the singular prediction above:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> What means "end"?   What is a specific statistic that you believe to
>>>> indicate that the pandemic has ended?
>>>>
>>>> From Wikipedia:
>>>>
>>>> A *pandemic* (from Greek <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Greek>
>>>>  πᾶν, *pan*, "all" and δῆμος, *demos*, "people") is an epidemic
>>>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic> of disease
>>>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease> that has spread across a large
>>>> region, for instance multiple continents
>>>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continents> or worldwide, affecting a
>>>> substantial number of people. A widespread endemic
>>>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)> disease with a
>>>> stable number of infected people is not a pandemic. Widespread endemic
>>>> diseases with a stable number of infected people such as recurrences of seasonal
>>>> influenza <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_influenza> are
>>>> generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the
>>>> globe rather than being spread worldwide.
>>>>
>>>> The WHO published THIS description of phases of a pandemic:
>>>>
>>>> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/
>>>>
>>>> [image: Image removed by sender.]
>>>>
>>>> *In the **post-pandemic** period, influenza disease activity will have
>>>> returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is expected
>>>> that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At
>>>> this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update pandemic
>>>> preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of recovery
>>>> and evaluation may be required.*
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Or maybe some other (measurable) definition?
>>>>
>>>> - Steve
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
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