[FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

Barry MacKichan barry.mackichan at mackichan.com
Tue Sep 14 17:16:58 EDT 2021 

MailMate on the Mac. https://freron.com

—Barry

On 13 Sep 2021, at 10:31, Gary Schiltz wrote:

> What email client and platform are you using?
>
> On Mon, Sep 13, 2021 at 8:37 AM Barry MacKichan <
> barry.mackichan at mackichan.com> wrote:
>
>> My email client keeps track of conversations, so if message A today 
>> is a
>> reply to message B from a year ago, the top of my inbox shows message 
>> B
>> with a disclosure triangle. Clicking it will show message B — the 
>> next part
>> of the conversation. In Friam, almost every message gets responses, 
>> so
>> there a frequently many old messages at the top level of my inbox.
>>
>> Hmm… This behavior is an option. I’ll go switch it off now…
>>
>> —Barry
>>
>> On 12 Sep 2021, at 23:57, Frank Wimberly wrote:
>>
>> I didn't notice the date.  I thought it was newly posted.  Why would 
>> it
>> have appeared in my email?  Maybe I did a search and saw Marcus's 
>> message
>> by coincidence.  At least my comment was brief.
>>
>> ---
>> Frank C. Wimberly
>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>
>> 505 670-9918
>> Santa Fe, NM
>>
>> On Sun, Sep 12, 2021, 9:50 PM Gary Schiltz 
>> <gary at naturesvisualarts.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Maybe I missed something, but what prompted you to dig up a 16 month 
>>> old
>>> comment from Marcus to respond to?
>>>
>>> On Sun, Sep 12, 2021 at 3:29 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Pollyanna!      (ironic)
>>>>
>>>> ---
>>>> Frank C. Wimberly
>>>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>>>
>>>> 505 670-9918
>>>> Santa Fe, NM
>>>>
>>>> On Sat, May 16, 2020, 10:32 AM Marcus Daniels 
>>>> <marcus at snoutfarm.com>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> Here’s what I expect will probably happen.   The PANDEMIC will 
>>>>> be
>>>>> declared over, like Mission Accomplished with W.   There will be a 
>>>>> slower
>>>>> burn until fall, and then it will accelerate again.   But people 
>>>>> will be
>>>>> acclimate to the death rate, like they acclimate to gun violence.
>>>>> Unemployment and homelessness will soar and be persistent.   
>>>>> Suicides will
>>>>> go up, and be normalized.   Meanwhile, people with the means will
>>>>> self-isolate and be the first to get access to antiviral 
>>>>> treatments.  Out
>>>>> in the blood and muck, herd immunity will begin to emerge in at 
>>>>> risk
>>>>> populations.   The U.S. will continue to have high prevalence 
>>>>> compared to
>>>>> other countries. History will look back on this as a Chernobyl 
>>>>> moment,
>>>>> where the prestige of the United States fell to Asia.   And a 
>>>>> second term
>>>>> of Trump will ensure it.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Prof David 
>>>>> West
>>>>> <profwest at fastmail.fm>
>>>>> *Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>>>>> friam at redfish.com>
>>>>> *Date: *Saturday, May 16, 2020 at 8:25 AM
>>>>> *To: *"friam at redfish.com" <friam at redfish.com>
>>>>> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Steve,
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Yes the subject line is click-bait. In the body of the message I 
>>>>> made a
>>>>> distinction between the disease pandemic and the perceived 
>>>>> PANDEMIC. The
>>>>> latter will go away whether or not the disease does.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> The metrics for the latter would include increased traffic to 
>>>>> websites
>>>>> like the Mathematica Individual COVID Risk calculator and less to 
>>>>> WHO, CDC,
>>>>> and other overall statistical sites; a noticeable shift from 
>>>>> personal
>>>>> interest stories about succuming to COVID to ones about succumbing 
>>>>> to
>>>>> economic hardship; gaming floors in Las Vegas casinos opening with 
>>>>> lots of
>>>>> assurance that gamblers are at no greater risk than when visiting 
>>>>> a grocery
>>>>> store; stories about death rates moving from the front page to the 
>>>>> second
>>>>> page or section; significant increase in lawsuits against 
>>>>> restrictions with
>>>>> quick, probably out of court, capitulation by governor's; and the 
>>>>> central
>>>>> theme of stories about the pandemic, what the science tells, us,
>>>>> whistleblowers, etc will be almost purely political in nature.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Going beyond mid-June, I would predict that you will see "wave 
>>>>> crests"
>>>>> in terms of cases and deaths, but not "spikes." They will be big 
>>>>> enough for
>>>>> the "experts" to claim they are right, but not big enough to 
>>>>> trigger any
>>>>> socio-economic response and most people will regard any reporting 
>>>>> of same
>>>>> with cynicism. Any attempt to reimpose lock-downs would likely 
>>>>> result in
>>>>> furious resistance and widespread civil disobedience.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> davew
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Tue, May 12, 2020, at 7:13 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> Dave -
>>>>>
>>>>> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 
>>>>> 2020.
>>>>>
>>>>> Ignoring the "bait" that I (and others) took earlier, I'll try to
>>>>> respond to the singular prediction above:
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> What means "end"?   What is a specific statistic that you believe 
>>>>> to
>>>>> indicate that the pandemic has ended?
>>>>>
>>>>> From Wikipedia:
>>>>>
>>>>> A *pandemic* (from Greek 
>>>>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Greek>
>>>>>  πᾶν, *pan*, "all" and δῆμος, *demos*, "people") is an 
>>>>> epidemic
>>>>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic> of disease
>>>>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease> that has spread across a 
>>>>> large
>>>>> region, for instance multiple continents
>>>>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continents> or worldwide, affecting 
>>>>> a
>>>>> substantial number of people. A widespread endemic
>>>>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)> disease 
>>>>> with a
>>>>> stable number of infected people is not a pandemic. Widespread 
>>>>> endemic
>>>>> diseases with a stable number of infected people such as 
>>>>> recurrences of seasonal
>>>>> influenza <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_influenza> are
>>>>> generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions 
>>>>> of the
>>>>> globe rather than being spread worldwide.
>>>>>
>>>>> The WHO published THIS description of phases of a pandemic:
>>>>>
>>>>> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/
>>>>>
>>>>> [image: Image removed by sender.]
>>>>>
>>>>> *In the **post-pandemic** period, influenza disease activity will 
>>>>> have
>>>>> returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is 
>>>>> expected
>>>>> that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A 
>>>>> virus. At
>>>>> this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update 
>>>>> pandemic
>>>>> preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of 
>>>>> recovery
>>>>> and evaluation may be required.*
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Or maybe some other (measurable) definition?
>>>>>
>>>>> - Steve
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. 
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>>>>> ... .... . ...
>>>>>
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