[FRIAM] The Insurrection Index

[Jochen Fromm]

Yes, reality is too complex to use just one model. More then one model is probably useful. Maybe also dynamical systems and/or replicator equations which are often used to describe evolutionary systems.Robinson and Acemoglu argue in their book "Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy" that different social groups prefer different political institutions because of the way they allocate political power and obtain resources. This aspect alone should result in interesting dynamics:Demagogues, corrupt oligarchs and wannabe autocrats who care only about their clan, tribe or family and who are involved in shady or corrupt business deals have clearly an incentive to weaken political institutions, to avoid democratic elections and to prevent freedom of speech to remain in power, because they have to fear independent courts, investigative journalism and free elections. Democrats have an incentive to be silent in an authoritarian system to avoid imprisonment.In democracies on the other hand democrats have an incentive to be active and to strengthen institutions to remain in power because independent courts, freedom of speech and free elections enable them to obtain power in democratic elections in the first place. Stronger political institutions in turn lead to less power for those who are not democrats. Conman and criminals have an incentive to hide in a democracy.This looks to me as if autocracy and democracy are like two fix points in a stag-hunt game. Normally the system returns to a stable democracy, but once a certain line is crossed, the system moves inevitably towards an autocracy. This could be an interesting modeling approach as well. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0012530-J.
-------- Original message --------From: glen <gepropella at gmail.com> Date: 1/7/22  19:51  (GMT+01:00) To: friam at redfish.com Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The Insurrection Index I'll play! But I'd push not for *an* ABM, but a constellation of models, maybe not all ABMs. The main reason is for parallax. But a side reason is to explore the foundations of democracy. I just watched this talk (in celebration of World Logic Day next Friday): https://formalethics.org/sdm_downloads/bruner-slides-fe-conference/ At the very start, Justin discusses the *assumption* of political equality. I'm not convinced that democracy requires that. In my ignorance, I'm thinking ancient Greece is typically thought of as a democracy ... but it seems very different from what we mean today.So the project might be one of exploring the space of possible models of democracy, without being prescriptive "definitions upfront!" curmudgeons. What do you think?On 1/7/22 10:30, Jochen Fromm wrote:> A good question. What is democracy and how can it turn into authoritarianism or fascism? There are a number of good books about fascism, like "The Anatomy of Fascism" from Robert Paxton, but as far as I know there is no agent-based model how a democratic backsliding works in terms of agents, systems and subsystems.> > I would like to work in my free time on an agent-based model how countries can experience a democratic backsliding into an authoritarian system. The site https://www.democratic-erosion.com/ has a number of good links, for example to the books from Acemoglu & Robinson (e.g. "Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy") or to the book "What is populism?" from Jan-Werner Müller.> > Anyone else interested in this topic?-- glenTheorem 3. There exists a double master function..-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - .FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listservZoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6  bit.ly/virtualfriamun/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.comFRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/archives: 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ 1/2003 thru 6/2021  http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20220107/c4db2352/attachment.html>