[FRIAM] From My Former Colleague

[Frank Wimberly]

Eric,

Teddy Seidenfeld and Clark Glymour know each other *very* well.  There is
no chance that the Similarity of titles is coincidental.

Frank




---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Fri, Jan 7, 2022, 6:20 PM David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu> wrote:

> The closest thing I can think of, Frank, is Teddy Seidenfeld’s paper Why I
> am not an Objective Bayesian.
>
> But that is enough of a different position that it could be a derivative
> title, with quite a different theme.
>
> Eric
>
>
>
> > On Jan 7, 2022, at 8:56 AM, Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> > Who wrote a widely cited paper with the title Why I am Not a Bayesian.
> >
> > "I have not found on the web any calculation of the probability that you
> have covid given that you have just decided to take a home covid antigen
> test and found a positive result.  So I did a couple.
> >
> > Abbott Laboratories Rapid antigen covid test (the only one I could get
> real numbers for):
> >
> > "The BinaxNOW test correctly gave a positive result 84.6% of the time
> compared to PCR. In the same study, the test correctly gave a negative
> result 98.5% of the time."
> >
> > I will assume that PCR results are ground truth. Assume the base rate of
> covid infection is 5%--the frequency of infectious covid among people you
> have come in contact with in the last several days.  Applying Bayes Theorem:
> >
> > pr(covid | positive test) = .05 pr(positive test | covid) / pr(positive
> test) =
> >
> > .05 x .846 / (pr (positive test | covid) pr(covid) + pr(positive test |
> no covid) pr(no covid)) =
> >
> > .0423 / (.846 x .05 + .15 x .95)  = .0423 / (.0423 + .1425) = .0423 /
> .1848 = .2288
> >
> > If the base rate of covid infection is 10% the probability of covid
> given a positive test is
> >
> > .0846 / .0846 +.135 = .3852.
> >
> > Bayes say you probably don't have covid. Moral: don't worry but
> quarantine until you get a negative PCR result."
> >
> >
> > ---
> > Frank C. Wimberly
> > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> > Santa Fe, NM 87505
> >
> > 505 670-9918
> > Santa Fe, NM
> >
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