[FRIAM] Octogenarian Omnicron

[Jochen Fromm]

I have got my 3rd booster vaccination today. 2x BioNTech/Pfizer last year, and Moderna today. The protection against infection by these new mRNA vaccines fades rapidly after 4 or 5 months. Therefore it definitely makes sense to get a 3rd booster vaccination if more than 4 or 5 months have passed. And it is a good idea to stay at home while the virus rages in the winter months. I will also try to work from home again which gives me more opportunity to join the virtual FRIAM meetings on Fridays.The BioNTech founder said we need a modified vaccine for the Omicron variant, but it is apparently not ready yet. Therefore getting the booster and staying at home is the best we can do at the moment. From what I have heard Omicron spreads faster than Delta but stays mainly in the upper respiratory region, which could mean less severe infections. This is what I know so far and it would fit to the data we see in the UK. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2022/01/06/1070622880/what-we-know-about-the-symptoms-and-the-severity-of-the-omicron-variant-J.
-------- Original message --------From: thompnickson2 at gmail.com Date: 1/8/22  20:05  (GMT+01:00) To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' <friam at redfish.com> Subject: [FRIAM] Octogenarian Omnicron Anybody, Has you seen anywhere the number, Prob Omnicron|vaccinated+boosted or Prob [Omnicron + Hospitalization] | vaccinated+boosted ?   Bayesian or otherwise? I have seen the number Prob Omnicron| unboosted = 25x Prob Omnicron|Boosted.   But I have no idea of its provenance.   N Nick ThompsonThompNickSon2 at gmail.comhttps://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> Sent: Saturday, January 8, 2022 12:00 PMTo: Nicholas Thompson <thompnickson2 at gmail.com>Subject: Re: Film Multiple people have said that everyone will get infected but that we vaxed and boosted folks will have mild cases and that some might not know they had it.  Even among octos. My slogan is "stay home as much as possible."  One of our tennis group who is 87 just left on a trip to Key West and Cancun.  He ignored my advice but at the last minute changed his second destination to Miami instead of Mexico.  He did it because of the quarantine requirement rather than fear of Covid.  I hear that Florida is exploding with cases. Frank ---Frank C. Wimberly140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505505 670-9918Santa Fe, NM On Sat, Jan 8, 2022, 9:48 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:Hi, Frank, Well, we watch films on my computer, balanced on a pillow, itself balanced on Penny’s Left and my Right knee.  We are working through Rake (Amazon), bawdy, funny, painful, very well done, and the Beatles thing (Disney) , Get Back, both chaotic and serene, in some way, so we don’t have NetFlix right now.  But as soon as those are done, we will turn to you movie.  I have done nothing more on Sober.  Have been wringing my hands about Omicron.  Seems like perhaps we octogenarians should perhaps locking down so as to delay our inevitable infection till after the peak.   I spent about an hour this morning trying to come up with the breakthrough rate for we triple boosted folk.  The only statistic I could come up with was that boosting increased ones resistance to infection by 25x.  I don’t know how they could know that without knowing what I want to know, but they ain’t saying.  I am wondering if Penny and I should go into lockdown to delay the inevitable to after the hospitalization peak.   Any thoughts?  Nick ThompsonThompNickSon2 at gmail.comhttps://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> Sent: Saturday, January 8, 2022 8:02 AMTo: Nicholas Thompson <thompnickson2 at gmail.com>Subject: Fwd: Film This is relevant to our discussion of are our sources of truth more reliable than "theirs".  You really should see it.  It's on Netflix.   Why don't you get a small flat screen TV for watching Rachel and movies.  You wouldn't have to get TV service.  You just plug it into your computer. Frank ---Frank C. Wimberly140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505505 670-9918Santa Fe, NM ---------- Forwarded message ---------From: Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com>Date: Fri, Jan 7, 2022, 8:40 PMSubject: FilmTo: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com> The film "Don't Look Up" came up in this morning's meeting.  We saw it this evening. I now see it was mentioned.  It's outstanding in my opinion.  Frank---Frank C. Wimberly140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505505 670-9918Santa Fe, NM
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