[FRIAM] health care logistics

Steve Smith sasmyth at swcp.com
Tue Jan 25 10:36:01 EST 2022 


EricS wrote:
> I don’t remember hearing about infanticides, Frank, though there is 
> much I miss that does happen.
>

me poking in with another anecdotal data point...  worth no more what 
you are paying for it...

During my last 10 years at LANL I worked with a lot of UNM grad 
students, many of them foreign.   Three were Chinese nationals. One was 
a girl (woman).  The two boys were only children.  The girl had a 
younger brother.   The boys came from urban areas, the girl from a more 
remote region.  She said it was not uncommon among her peers that they 
had younger brothers, a few older brothers, none with sisters.   Her 
husband (also a student from the same region) also had an older 
sister.   She said it was only because she had a younger brother who did 
not want to seek opportunities away from the family that she was 
allowed/encouraged to come to the US.   I worked with her for years 
before any of this came out.

She and one of the male students were perhaps the most humble and 
diligent of any of the students I worked with.  The other "boy" was a 
spoiled brat who picked on both of them (even more than other students) 
incessantly.   He came from significant wealth/privilege, the other two 
did not.    According to US security-lore, they were probably all deep 
Chinese-State agents in some sense.   I discovered that when I re-upped 
a clearance (not Q) and got grilled over why I hadn't disclosed the 
"relationship".   They seemed entirely unconcerned with any of the other 
nationalities (Indian, Pakastani - both Nuclear Powers, Jordanian, 
Saudi, Japanese, and a variety of Western Bloc Euros). This was 
post-9/11 when I would have thought the middle-east was scarier to them 
than China.

I don't think I revealed anything useful (much less secrets) to any of 
them.   Most were a joy to work with most of the time. Really all, 
excepting the one.  Ed probably knew (of) all of them, though many were 
EECE not CS.

> When Marc Feldman used to report on these things to us — he having 
> been in the advising team to the Chinese government for their 1-child 
> policy — he said the main instrument of gender imbalance was the 
> ultrasound.  To the extent that daughters got drafted into service of 
> other’s parents, while sons were drafted into service of their own 
> parents, there was some level of non-medically-driven abortion of 
> girls.  It is easy to imagine, of course, that there are rural areas 
> that have access to government enforcement but not to ultrasound, 
> though much more 30 years ago than now.
>
> Feldman said two things, one of which is an empirical claim and the 
> other interpretive.  The empirical is probably trustworthy.  He said 
> there was some province (or probably smaller region) where it wasn’t 
> customary that married women always get carried off to the husband’s 
> family, and that there, they did not see the sex ratio departing from 
> whatever is its natural level, which I think is barely boy-biased to a 
> degree that traditionally could have compensated for the excess death 
> rates of boys in early life.  The interpretive thing he said was that, 
> when questioned about what drove families to selectively abort until 
> they had boy children, the number-1 answer they gave was not old-age 
> material want, but a wish “to carry on the family name”.  Feldman 
> seemed to think this was important, as an instance of the ineffable 
> trumping the effable.  I hold the claim in some reserve, because the 
> justification people give for doing something may or may not be what a 
> neo-Skinnerian would call the actual cause.
>
> The other thing that I’m not sure I follow in the Seibert and Rees 
> narrative is how a 1-child policy gets us to a 90% reduction in a few 
> decades.  log2(0.1) ~ -3.32, so 1-child gets us to 10% in about 70 
> years if a generation is 20 years.  But that’s just details.
>
> Eric
>
>
>
>> On Jan 24, 2022, at 9:11 PM, Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> Excellent, Marcus.
>>
>> Eric, if it's less than 90% it still would have be significant.  Two 
>> problems, "God" has tricks for making babies.  As for 1 child per 
>> couple didn't they "terminate" some babies (not fetuses, feti?), 
>> particularly females?  My impression is that their population has 
>> grown substantially notwithstanding those policies.
>>
>> Frank
>>
>> ---
>> Frank C. Wimberly
>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>
>> 505 670-9918
>> Santa Fe, NM
>>
>> On Mon, Jan 24, 2022, 6:38 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> 
>> wrote:
>>
>>     Before I launch into a diatribe about why the hell we can't agree
>>     to basic, never mind interesting things:   I'd just like to
>>     report that the James Webb telescope is in L2 orbit.  Score one
>>     for the negotiating, patient, subtlety-appreciating scientists
>>     and their counterparts in government.
>>
>>     Marcus
>>     ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>     *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of David Eric
>>     Smith <desmith at santafe.edu>
>>     *Sent:* Monday, January 24, 2022 6:01 PM
>>     *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
>>     <friam at redfish.com>
>>     *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] health care logistics
>>     You know, as I read your characterization, Marcus, it took me
>>     back to Hannah Arendt’s description of feudal Europe and the role
>>     of the Rothschilds and other big Jewish quasi-stateless fixer
>>     families in relation to the feudal lords.  Fussy and indirect
>>     seems somehow very close to the right picture of the stateless
>>     ones navigating always through the cracks and seams, compared to
>>     the blunt moves of the ones who had states.
>>
>>     I have some discomfort that this doesn’t quite map.  Yet it seems
>>     not fully dissimilar.
>>
>>     Eric
>>
>>
>>
>>>     On Jan 24, 2022, at 7:19 PM, Marcus Daniels
>>>     <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>     SFI sponsorship seems like very much a fideistic declaration. 
>>>      It would be interesting to see how that influence network feeds
>>>     into a D.C. influencer network and real money.   There are some
>>>     linkages, like Brookings, but leverage-wise it all seems much
>>>     softer than with LANL and the DOE.   And it all seems so fussy
>>>     and indirect compared to slapping down a few billion dollars to
>>>     build a Starship. That's the appeal of Musk:  I'm f'ing doing this.
>>>     ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>     *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of glen
>>>     <gepropella at gmail.com>
>>>     *Sent:* Monday, January 24, 2022 5:08 PM
>>>     *To:* friam at redfish.com <friam at redfish.com>
>>>     *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] health care logistics
>>>     Well, that ain't true, either. Like Epstein, when you "invest"
>>>     in the SFI or people like Steven Pinker or Bill Clinton, you're
>>>     simply transferring from one store to another ... buying
>>>     influence. If, e.g., the CIA contracts with the SFI to adapt a
>>>     CAS modeling tool into a broad spectrum simulation tool, they
>>>     are not only buying a (questionable) piece of software; they're
>>>     buying *leverage* over people's salaries, loyalty, etc. So those
>>>     VCs *will* see that money again, perhaps much less of it,
>>>     depending on the efficiency of the transaction, or in fringe
>>>     storage types (able to get past the receptionist after eating
>>>     over-priced peri-Mexican food in order to have tea with smart
>>>     people).
>>>
>>>     On 1/24/22 15:31, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>>>     > Some of them sponsor SFI for goodness' sake!   They'll never
>>>     see THAT money again!
>>>     -- 
>>>     glen
>>>     Theorem 3. There exists a double master function.
>>>
>>>
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