[FRIAM] Modeling Fascism

[Marcus Daniels]

Humiliation is not predictive of fascism, am I reading that right?

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Steve Smith
Sent: Friday, July 15, 2022 1:29 PM
To: friam at redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Modeling Fascism


for those of us trying to suss out the implications of this, I offer:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shapley_value

I'm not clear on a number of things Jochen:

  1.  The Shapley values implies an iterated/cooperative model?
  2.  I see how the "training set" from post WWI Europe might be used in this context.
  3.  How do your assumptions about Trump-era America fit in?
     *   Is the assumption that post WWI (hidden) conditions in Europe are similar enough to contemporary Global conditions?

I'm probably missing something (a lot)?

- Steve
On 7/15/22 2:06 PM, Jochen Fromm wrote:
Today after work I've tried to built a small and simple machine learning model to predict fascism, based on 6 or 7 fundamental features. Using Shapley values we can see which feature contributes the most to the outbreak of fascism. If I enter values which fit to the US under Trump the model indeed predicts a form of authoritarianism.

No big data or deep learning, just a small neural network based on scikit-learn (no Tensorflow, Keras, or Pytorch). Juypter notebook here:
https://nbviewer.org/github/JochenFromm/JupyterNotebooks/blob/master/ModelingFascism.ipynb

-J.




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