[FRIAM] [EXT] News Alert: Most young men are single. Most young women are not.
Prof David West
profwest at fastmail.fm
Thu Feb 23 09:14:20 EST 2023
The biggest not-accounted-for cost is human. All those kids in lithium mines earning 12 cents a day.
davew
On Thu, Feb 23, 2023, at 3:41 AM, Santafe wrote:
> There is a skewness in the various analyses of these things (in the
> sense of two lines of non-common direction embedded in enough
> dimensions that they never meet) that makes the various claims unusable
> unless one will not be lazy. That puts it out of my reach.
>
> Rees, Seibert, and the others, have their nice 1-page digestable list
> of slogans why “It’s all Bullshit!”. There they talk about how
> obviously wind and solar power are _Just NOT_ sustainable, because they
> are carried to the site by fossil-fuel-powered trucks. And similar
> sort of qualitative no-go claims.
>
> In a brief luxury of house-cleaning following what seemed to be months
> of continuous crises, I was catching up on some older reading on
> figures of merit for various energy technologies, and got, by various
> routes, to the claim that the embodied energy of solar PV is about
> 3kWh/Wp, where Wp = “watt produced”. So one is looking at about 3000
> hours before the power delievered is over-and-above replacement.
> People estimate that, in calendar time, that translates to values
> between 1 and 6 years or so, for a product that should have about a
> 20-year lifecycle. Now, that embodied energy estimate came from
> somewhere, and the people producing it were probably not oil company
> shills. So does it include Bill Rees’s oil-powered truck, or not?
> Meaning, does he just throw it all into the dustbin with a wave of
> common sense, or is he being lazy and neither following through an
> argument nor admitting what would be needed to follow it through, and
> estimating how far we are from that.
>
> Apparently, there are various “Scopes” of power consumption that go
> into sustainability reporting law. I won’t remember them properly, but
> Scope 1 is something like your own power consumed in manufacturing;
> Scope 2 is some measure of power used by others either before or after
> (sorry; not time to go find this now), and Scope 3 is the whole
> supply-line analysis, prorated for the part you use. I look at Scope
> 3, and it looks like hard accounting to do, but I don’t know if that
> means it is a pipe dream, or if usable approximations are available for
> certain domains. (U. Exeter I think tries to contribute such data, or
> collaborate with companies that do.)
>
> The recursion, which is a tree, seems easy enough to visualize (as in a
> SFe bumper sticker). If you don’t like the oil-powered truck, replace
> it with a non-oil-powered truck. What is the embodied energy of the
> replacement, prorated over all the things it will haul, and what is the
> operating energy cost of this task. And then so on for the factory
> that builds the truck, the mining machinery that extracts any new ores,
> or the recycling plant that salvages retired materials, etc. When
> people estimate embodied energy costs for this or that technology, are
> they putting in some defensible estimate or placeholder for this
> recursion, or not? Seems like a simple enough question to ask. But I
> spend time in conversations with people who do this (not a _ton_ of
> time, but a little), and I don’t know the answer.
>
> I understand, also (since it is obvious), that just an energy
> accounting is only a baseline for constraint. There is then the much
> harder and more detailed accounting of whether you have a process for
> each step. So, for example: There’s a minimum chemical free energy
> cost to separate the rare earth dopants from silicon to recycle a
> retired solar cell, which will need to become the process once the
> high-grade ores are not available, but do you have a process that
> performs that extraction and purification? Stuff like that. That
> becomes all the labor-intensive “industrial ecology” research (I think
> they call it) to try to turn some of the sloganeering into usable
> inputs for a designer.
>
> Thanks Steve for forwarding the LtG plots. I read that one too. They
> are trying to bypass the detailed industrial ecology, and hope that
> within some number of orders of magnitude, they can do something like a
> conserved-quantity bound on what is possible by any process. The
> economists have, since the original came out, tried to dismiss that
> line of reasoning (again with a hand-wave), by claiming that one
> doesn’t know about conservation laws between rates and quantities, and
> since LtG hasn’t accounted for “human innovation”, they can safely be
> ignored. Of course, I understand that that argument is not only pretty
> sure to be wrong (and provably wrong for a few simple cases where I
> know how to calculate), but also made in either bad faith or laziness.
> But the question it begs is: what can we prove is unreachable by any
> level of innovation, for the same reasons perpetual motion machines are
> impossible? Those rate/state no-go theorems are a lot harder to prove.
>
>
> Eric
>
>> On Feb 22, 2023, at 6:16 PM, Russell Standish <lists at hpcoders.com.au> wrote:
>>
>> I did a calculation based on a steady growth rate followed by
>> extinction and anthropic reasoning (aka as the "doomsday argument"),
>> and came up with a 50% chance of population collapse by 2100. This was
>> based on 2005 population figures. See appendix B of my book "Theory of
>> Nothing". I haven't bothered publishing that study elsewhere.
>>
>> Of course - the steady growth rate assumption is extreme. We know that
>> the population growth rate is decreasing, with the inflection point a
>> couple of decades ago. On current demographics, the earth's population
>> will peak around 2070, and then go into a bit of decline, with some
>> countries such as China going into reverse considerably sooner (eg I
>> believe 2030s is the current prediction for China to start having a
>> declining population).
>>
>> Natural population decline due to declining fertility is much
>> preferable to a hard extinction extinction, of course, particular on a
>> century timescale. So we should live with the fact that we may not
>> have any grandchildren/great grandchildren whatever your stage of life
>> is. I'm already comfortable with that - I doubt I'll have any
>> grandchildren :).
>>
>>
>> On Wed, Feb 22, 2023 at 03:10:45PM -0700, Gillian Densmore wrote:
>>> WTF, how are they coming up with these numbers? I know it sucks a whales ******
>>> these days to make friends. Much less a GF (or BF). But something aint adding
>>> up here. Did they ask both people in the relationship?
>>>
>>> On Wed, Feb 22, 2023 at 3:04 PM Steve Smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>> In a very limited and somewhat ad-hoc (latin hypercube of 10 samples of 5
>>> variables) ensemble study (100,000 samples) I did with an NREL colleague in
>>> 2019 using the World3 Model we found a very ad-hoc observation that among
>>> the various ideas of what was a "good outcome" in 2100 (like GDP/person or
>>> other vernacular ideas of "quality of life") that virtually *all* of them
>>> involved a sooner-rather-than-later population collapse.
>>>
>>> To the extent that Modeling (in general), SD modeling more particularly and
>>> the World3 model in particular I wasn't very inclined to take the
>>> quantitative results of any of very seriously but it was an interesting
>>> (but unsurprising) qualitative result?
>>>
>>> For anyone interested in an interactive web implementation to dork with
>>> yourself:
>>>
>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2finsightmaker.com%2finsight%2f2pCL5ePy8wWgr4SN8BQ4DD%2f&c=E,1,waM3Y4hIAP7DIilGuyQdtxHgvgZuOYCBMUFaMVDvHa1Cocq8htqFiVTp_wL46S7NKnkFroo4JEO946Xjf2hZw6ERqbDNWbSrT2zf5GFR&typo=1
>>> The-World3-Model-Classic-World-Simulation
>>>
>>> FWIW I dorked around with it in honor of Jimmy Carter's recent admission to
>>> a hospice program... looking at what it might have meant if we'd followed
>>> his lead back around 1978. Worth noting, I (foolishly by hindsight)
>>> helped run him out of town to be replaced with Ronnie Raygun ... "drill
>>> baby drill, burn baby burn!"
>>>
>>> And an excerpt from a recent (2020) update synopsis of the Limits to Growth
>>> project/idea/model/results:
>>>
>>>
>>> [cid]
>>>
>>> Worth noting: The population drops in BAU/BAU2 (Biznezz as Usual)
>>> represent increased death rates rather than reduced fertility rates.
>>>
>>> The bigger (or smaller by another measure) question of what decisions
>>> anyone of us might make (for ourselves, our progeny, our friends, whatever
>>> policy-making is in our jurisdiction, in our imagination) is a much
>>> trickier one based on myriad principles/values that likely few of us share
>>> unless we choose a high dimension-reduction strategy (e.g. single-issue
>>> conception). My parents were overtly ZPG advocates and I have one sister
>>> which lead me to feel plenty "done" after 2 children myself. Each of my 2
>>> have chosen to only have 1. Many of my friends have chosen to be
>>> childless. Most of my peers who were from large sibling groups have at
>>> best a replacement cohort among their children and nieces/nephews which are
>>> headed toward a NPG in the following generation.
>>>
>>> My current heuristic is that if I want my grandchildren to reproduce, I
>>> need to get out of the way which means unless their other grandparents
>>> don't have the grace of knocking off by the time they want to do that, then
>>> it is up to me... no open-ended life-extension unless I expect to leave the
>>> planet (hear my pain Elon?) I don't think the World3 has been updated to
>>> be a Sol model and even considering it really challenges the very structure
>>> /concept of the World3 SD model!
>>>
>>> Most of the population growth models I've run into suggest that we might be
>>> on our way to(ward) ZPG with many regions going into NPG, but not until we
>>> pass 10B. I don't know that *any* of them factor in the non-linear effects
>>> of possible/likely runaway global warming or species collapse.
>>>
>>> [467px-World_population_]
>>>
>>>
>>> On 2/22/23 11:53 AM, Santafe wrote:
>>>
>>> Yeah. Bill Rees and Meghan Seibert want 90% of us to die
>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.realgnd.org%2fpeople&c=E,1,CnZKr6BrCIYrStILIg5f47rJ7R1vq_N5xpHj-J4xLtoM6o-NTjvy_FVM4FTstY02_jMOaLgAnDvkKI5hDoJvpNwREjlehP4q-bcwWVxmtWPyTwQw&typo=1
>>> (or a position paper somewhere in their writings).
>>>
>>> On their people page, you can see what happy ecologists they are, and BIll is a friendly old grandfather with a beard.
>>>
>>> I shouldn’t be snotty. I think they are actually very tortured about their dictum that 90% of us should die. And I think in some sense they are committed, good people.
>>>
>>> But I put them up here, because somehow people collapsing under decades of frustration seem to develop a misanthropy that causes them to forget It’s Not All About You (and how tortured you are, being the only truth-teller in a lonely world). If you really care about the thing you say, then it should eclipse your own self-importance enough that you just stay focused on the task.
>>>
>>> I don’t know in how far their positions turn out to represent solid numbers. Maybe some part of it. But I have said that before.
>>>
>>> Eric
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Feb 22, 2023, at 1:06 PM, Gary Schiltz <gary at naturesvisualarts.com> wrote:
>>>
>>> A few really do want our species to go extinct, but many believe that we are already overpopulated and need to level off or reduce population. I lean only slightly toward the latter.
>>>
>>> On Wed, Feb 22, 2023 at 12:51 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>> Agreed. But if we don't construct any new ones and the existing ones all die (they will) we will run out. Is that a reasonable goal?
>>>
>>> On Wed, Feb 22, 2023 at 10:20 AM glen <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
>>> We do not need more people. We have plenty of people. Please stop constructing people. >8^D
>>>
>>> On 2/22/23 09:16, Frank Wimberly wrote:
>>>
>>> I am worried however. I have two grandsons in their 20s. Each has a girlfriend. Those young women want nothing to do with babies. I assume they have younger siblings. I hope that as they enter their 30s their attitudes will change because of the realization that they are running out of time.
>>>
>>> ---
>>> Frank C. Wimberly
>>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>>
>>> 505 670-9918
>>> Santa Fe, NM
>>>
>>> On Wed, Feb 22, 2023, 10:08 AM Santafe <desmith at santafe.edu <mailto:desmith at santafe.edu>> wrote:
>>>
>>> I think the keyword was young.
>>>
>>> You can do that if the old men are all married to young women.
>>>
>>>> On Feb 22, 2023, at 12:02 PM, Nicholas Thompson <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Last time I checked, the average number of attached males has to equal the average number of attached females, unless, of course, females, feel attached to men who don’t feel attached.
>>>>
>>>> Sent from my Dumb Phone
>>>>
>>>> Begin forwarded message:
>>>>
>>>> From: The Hill <thehill at email.thehill.com <mailto:thehill at email.thehill.com>>
>>>> Date: February 22, 2023 at 7:01:34 AM MST
>>>> To: nthompson at clarku.edu <mailto:nthompson at clarku.edu>
>>>> Subject: [EXT] News Alert: Most young men are single. Most young women are not.
>>>> Reply-To: emailteam at thehill.com <mailto:emailteam at thehill.com>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> View Online
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Most young men are single. Most young women are not.
>>>> More than 60 percent of young men are single, nearly twice the rate of unattached young women, signaling a larger breakdown in the social, romantic and sexual life of the American male.
>>>>
>>>> Read the full story here.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
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>>>
>>> --
>>> ꙮ Mɥǝu ǝlǝdɥɐuʇs ɟᴉƃɥʇ' ʇɥǝ ƃɹɐss snɟɟǝɹs˙ ꙮ
>>>
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>>>
>>> --
>>> Frank Wimberly
>>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz
>>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>> 505 670-9918
>>>
>>> Research: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2
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>>
>>
>>
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>>
>>
>> --
>>
>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>> Dr Russell Standish Phone 0425 253119 (mobile)
>> Principal, High Performance Coders hpcoder at hpcoders.com.au
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>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>
>> -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. .
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
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>> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
>
>
> -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. .
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
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