[FRIAM] [EXT] News Alert: Most young men are single. Most young women are not.
Santafe
desmith at santafe.edu
Thu Feb 23 05:41:23 EST 2023
There is a skewness in the various analyses of these things (in the sense of two lines of non-common direction embedded in enough dimensions that they never meet) that makes the various claims unusable unless one will not be lazy. That puts it out of my reach.
Rees, Seibert, and the others, have their nice 1-page digestable list of slogans why “It’s all Bullshit!”. There they talk about how obviously wind and solar power are _Just NOT_ sustainable, because they are carried to the site by fossil-fuel-powered trucks. And similar sort of qualitative no-go claims.
In a brief luxury of house-cleaning following what seemed to be months of continuous crises, I was catching up on some older reading on figures of merit for various energy technologies, and got, by various routes, to the claim that the embodied energy of solar PV is about 3kWh/Wp, where Wp = “watt produced”. So one is looking at about 3000 hours before the power delievered is over-and-above replacement. People estimate that, in calendar time, that translates to values between 1 and 6 years or so, for a product that should have about a 20-year lifecycle. Now, that embodied energy estimate came from somewhere, and the people producing it were probably not oil company shills. So does it include Bill Rees’s oil-powered truck, or not? Meaning, does he just throw it all into the dustbin with a wave of common sense, or is he being lazy and neither following through an argument nor admitting what would be needed to follow it through, and estimating how far we are from that.
Apparently, there are various “Scopes” of power consumption that go into sustainability reporting law. I won’t remember them properly, but Scope 1 is something like your own power consumed in manufacturing; Scope 2 is some measure of power used by others either before or after (sorry; not time to go find this now), and Scope 3 is the whole supply-line analysis, prorated for the part you use. I look at Scope 3, and it looks like hard accounting to do, but I don’t know if that means it is a pipe dream, or if usable approximations are available for certain domains. (U. Exeter I think tries to contribute such data, or collaborate with companies that do.)
The recursion, which is a tree, seems easy enough to visualize (as in a SFe bumper sticker). If you don’t like the oil-powered truck, replace it with a non-oil-powered truck. What is the embodied energy of the replacement, prorated over all the things it will haul, and what is the operating energy cost of this task. And then so on for the factory that builds the truck, the mining machinery that extracts any new ores, or the recycling plant that salvages retired materials, etc. When people estimate embodied energy costs for this or that technology, are they putting in some defensible estimate or placeholder for this recursion, or not? Seems like a simple enough question to ask. But I spend time in conversations with people who do this (not a _ton_ of time, but a little), and I don’t know the answer.
I understand, also (since it is obvious), that just an energy accounting is only a baseline for constraint. There is then the much harder and more detailed accounting of whether you have a process for each step. So, for example: There’s a minimum chemical free energy cost to separate the rare earth dopants from silicon to recycle a retired solar cell, which will need to become the process once the high-grade ores are not available, but do you have a process that performs that extraction and purification? Stuff like that. That becomes all the labor-intensive “industrial ecology” research (I think they call it) to try to turn some of the sloganeering into usable inputs for a designer.
Thanks Steve for forwarding the LtG plots. I read that one too. They are trying to bypass the detailed industrial ecology, and hope that within some number of orders of magnitude, they can do something like a conserved-quantity bound on what is possible by any process. The economists have, since the original came out, tried to dismiss that line of reasoning (again with a hand-wave), by claiming that one doesn’t know about conservation laws between rates and quantities, and since LtG hasn’t accounted for “human innovation”, they can safely be ignored. Of course, I understand that that argument is not only pretty sure to be wrong (and provably wrong for a few simple cases where I know how to calculate), but also made in either bad faith or laziness. But the question it begs is: what can we prove is unreachable by any level of innovation, for the same reasons perpetual motion machines are impossible? Those rate/state no-go theorems are a lot harder to prove.
Eric
> On Feb 22, 2023, at 6:16 PM, Russell Standish <lists at hpcoders.com.au> wrote:
>
> I did a calculation based on a steady growth rate followed by
> extinction and anthropic reasoning (aka as the "doomsday argument"),
> and came up with a 50% chance of population collapse by 2100. This was
> based on 2005 population figures. See appendix B of my book "Theory of
> Nothing". I haven't bothered publishing that study elsewhere.
>
> Of course - the steady growth rate assumption is extreme. We know that
> the population growth rate is decreasing, with the inflection point a
> couple of decades ago. On current demographics, the earth's population
> will peak around 2070, and then go into a bit of decline, with some
> countries such as China going into reverse considerably sooner (eg I
> believe 2030s is the current prediction for China to start having a
> declining population).
>
> Natural population decline due to declining fertility is much
> preferable to a hard extinction extinction, of course, particular on a
> century timescale. So we should live with the fact that we may not
> have any grandchildren/great grandchildren whatever your stage of life
> is. I'm already comfortable with that - I doubt I'll have any
> grandchildren :).
>
>
> On Wed, Feb 22, 2023 at 03:10:45PM -0700, Gillian Densmore wrote:
>> WTF, how are they coming up with these numbers? I know it sucks a whales ******
>> these days to make friends. Much less a GF (or BF). But something aint adding
>> up here. Did they ask both people in the relationship?
>>
>> On Wed, Feb 22, 2023 at 3:04 PM Steve Smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:
>>
>>
>> In a very limited and somewhat ad-hoc (latin hypercube of 10 samples of 5
>> variables) ensemble study (100,000 samples) I did with an NREL colleague in
>> 2019 using the World3 Model we found a very ad-hoc observation that among
>> the various ideas of what was a "good outcome" in 2100 (like GDP/person or
>> other vernacular ideas of "quality of life") that virtually *all* of them
>> involved a sooner-rather-than-later population collapse.
>>
>> To the extent that Modeling (in general), SD modeling more particularly and
>> the World3 model in particular I wasn't very inclined to take the
>> quantitative results of any of very seriously but it was an interesting
>> (but unsurprising) qualitative result?
>>
>> For anyone interested in an interactive web implementation to dork with
>> yourself:
>>
>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2finsightmaker.com%2finsight%2f2pCL5ePy8wWgr4SN8BQ4DD%2f&c=E,1,waM3Y4hIAP7DIilGuyQdtxHgvgZuOYCBMUFaMVDvHa1Cocq8htqFiVTp_wL46S7NKnkFroo4JEO946Xjf2hZw6ERqbDNWbSrT2zf5GFR&typo=1
>> The-World3-Model-Classic-World-Simulation
>>
>> FWIW I dorked around with it in honor of Jimmy Carter's recent admission to
>> a hospice program... looking at what it might have meant if we'd followed
>> his lead back around 1978. Worth noting, I (foolishly by hindsight)
>> helped run him out of town to be replaced with Ronnie Raygun ... "drill
>> baby drill, burn baby burn!"
>>
>> And an excerpt from a recent (2020) update synopsis of the Limits to Growth
>> project/idea/model/results:
>>
>>
>> [cid]
>>
>> Worth noting: The population drops in BAU/BAU2 (Biznezz as Usual)
>> represent increased death rates rather than reduced fertility rates.
>>
>> The bigger (or smaller by another measure) question of what decisions
>> anyone of us might make (for ourselves, our progeny, our friends, whatever
>> policy-making is in our jurisdiction, in our imagination) is a much
>> trickier one based on myriad principles/values that likely few of us share
>> unless we choose a high dimension-reduction strategy (e.g. single-issue
>> conception). My parents were overtly ZPG advocates and I have one sister
>> which lead me to feel plenty "done" after 2 children myself. Each of my 2
>> have chosen to only have 1. Many of my friends have chosen to be
>> childless. Most of my peers who were from large sibling groups have at
>> best a replacement cohort among their children and nieces/nephews which are
>> headed toward a NPG in the following generation.
>>
>> My current heuristic is that if I want my grandchildren to reproduce, I
>> need to get out of the way which means unless their other grandparents
>> don't have the grace of knocking off by the time they want to do that, then
>> it is up to me... no open-ended life-extension unless I expect to leave the
>> planet (hear my pain Elon?) I don't think the World3 has been updated to
>> be a Sol model and even considering it really challenges the very structure
>> /concept of the World3 SD model!
>>
>> Most of the population growth models I've run into suggest that we might be
>> on our way to(ward) ZPG with many regions going into NPG, but not until we
>> pass 10B. I don't know that *any* of them factor in the non-linear effects
>> of possible/likely runaway global warming or species collapse.
>>
>> [467px-World_population_]
>>
>>
>> On 2/22/23 11:53 AM, Santafe wrote:
>>
>> Yeah. Bill Rees and Meghan Seibert want 90% of us to die
>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.realgnd.org%2fpeople&c=E,1,CnZKr6BrCIYrStILIg5f47rJ7R1vq_N5xpHj-J4xLtoM6o-NTjvy_FVM4FTstY02_jMOaLgAnDvkKI5hDoJvpNwREjlehP4q-bcwWVxmtWPyTwQw&typo=1
>> (or a position paper somewhere in their writings).
>>
>> On their people page, you can see what happy ecologists they are, and BIll is a friendly old grandfather with a beard.
>>
>> I shouldn’t be snotty. I think they are actually very tortured about their dictum that 90% of us should die. And I think in some sense they are committed, good people.
>>
>> But I put them up here, because somehow people collapsing under decades of frustration seem to develop a misanthropy that causes them to forget It’s Not All About You (and how tortured you are, being the only truth-teller in a lonely world). If you really care about the thing you say, then it should eclipse your own self-importance enough that you just stay focused on the task.
>>
>> I don’t know in how far their positions turn out to represent solid numbers. Maybe some part of it. But I have said that before.
>>
>> Eric
>>
>>
>>
>> On Feb 22, 2023, at 1:06 PM, Gary Schiltz <gary at naturesvisualarts.com> wrote:
>>
>> A few really do want our species to go extinct, but many believe that we are already overpopulated and need to level off or reduce population. I lean only slightly toward the latter.
>>
>> On Wed, Feb 22, 2023 at 12:51 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:
>> Agreed. But if we don't construct any new ones and the existing ones all die (they will) we will run out. Is that a reasonable goal?
>>
>> On Wed, Feb 22, 2023 at 10:20 AM glen <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
>> We do not need more people. We have plenty of people. Please stop constructing people. >8^D
>>
>> On 2/22/23 09:16, Frank Wimberly wrote:
>>
>> I am worried however. I have two grandsons in their 20s. Each has a girlfriend. Those young women want nothing to do with babies. I assume they have younger siblings. I hope that as they enter their 30s their attitudes will change because of the realization that they are running out of time.
>>
>> ---
>> Frank C. Wimberly
>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>
>> 505 670-9918
>> Santa Fe, NM
>>
>> On Wed, Feb 22, 2023, 10:08 AM Santafe <desmith at santafe.edu <mailto:desmith at santafe.edu>> wrote:
>>
>> I think the keyword was young.
>>
>> You can do that if the old men are all married to young women.
>>
>>> On Feb 22, 2023, at 12:02 PM, Nicholas Thompson <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>>>
>>> Last time I checked, the average number of attached males has to equal the average number of attached females, unless, of course, females, feel attached to men who don’t feel attached.
>>>
>>> Sent from my Dumb Phone
>>>
>>> Begin forwarded message:
>>>
>>> From: The Hill <thehill at email.thehill.com <mailto:thehill at email.thehill.com>>
>>> Date: February 22, 2023 at 7:01:34 AM MST
>>> To: nthompson at clarku.edu <mailto:nthompson at clarku.edu>
>>> Subject: [EXT] News Alert: Most young men are single. Most young women are not.
>>> Reply-To: emailteam at thehill.com <mailto:emailteam at thehill.com>
>>>
>>>
>>> View Online
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Most young men are single. Most young women are not.
>>> More than 60 percent of young men are single, nearly twice the rate of unattached young women, signaling a larger breakdown in the social, romantic and sexual life of the American male.
>>>
>>> Read the full story here.
>>>
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>> --
>> ꙮ Mɥǝu ǝlǝdɥɐuʇs ɟᴉƃɥʇ' ʇɥǝ ƃɹɐss snɟɟǝɹs˙ ꙮ
>>
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>> --
>> Frank Wimberly
>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz
>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>> 505 670-9918
>>
>> Research: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2
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