[FRIAM] Potential Vorticity and the Dynamic Tropopause

Mon Apr 15 19:33:04 EDT 2024

Steve,

I forwarded your review to the Gupta:

Thank you for your feedback on our paper. Your review highlights important
> areas for improvement, particularly in grounding our theoretical
> comparisons with empirical data.

Our paper was meant to be a "talking dog" demo where a few metaphors were
> presented by our 4th author we expressed them to a LaTeX-fetished audience
> with continuous and discrete math accessories. As we are at the stage of a
> one-year-old puppy, we recognize your review as more snark than barkl Thank
> you for taking the time to review the content of our paper and not just the
> style

Steve a second purpose of the paper was to be a boundary spanning object as
I was talking to Nick. When I brought up the  metaphor of NPV when he was
trying to explain potential temperature to me, I got a blank stare. I
continue to be pleasantly surprised at GPT4 ability to make these
connections and letting us play around with concepts as we try to
communicate.

Eg

Try the Prompt yourself : How is NPV in finance like potential temperature
in meteorology and more importantly poke around with it and the other
metaphors.

I gave Gupta the first three analogies and it came up with the 4th BTW
after a bit of context was developed: Potential Vorticiity and Liquidity. I
am still thinking about that one...eg both can be order parameters and deal
with residence time of energy / capital....

   - Potential Temperature and Net Present Value
   - Equivalent Potential Temperature and Risk-Adjusted NPV
   - Atmospheric Lapse Rate and Bond Yield Curves with and without
   inversions
   - *Potential Vorticity and Market Liquidity*

The third purpose of the paper, was to needle Nick a bit by putting his
name as coauthor on a web-accessible draft paper written by an AI. scandal
for sufficiently small values of scandalous.

. 20 years ago, we argued about using a wikipedia source (on dendrograms)
in a paper that our intern was writing. The intern was Nick's properly
trained prior student. Nick said we should find an original source to
reference when describing how our dendrogram algorithm worked. I argued
that we didn't use that source. we used wikipedia to get a couple details
for our code. I think using AI to write a paper is a little further down
the road than that :-)

On Mon, Apr 15, 2024 at 1:13 PM Steve Smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:

> In a quick search of the InterWebsOfBabel I found the following, also
> first published on April 1, 2024:
>
> *Analysis: "Exploring Mappings and Universality in Meteorological and
> Financial Systems" by Daniel GuPTa, George Phillip Tucker, Nicholas
> Thompson, Stephen Guerin*
>
> GuPTa et al.'s paper ambitiously tries to connect the chaotic worlds of
> weather patterns and stock market fluctuations with a scholarly double
> hand(wringing) wave, proposing that clouds and cash flows are governed by
> the same universal principles. Their approach? Point out big words like
> 'universality classes' and 'dynamic stability,' and hope the conceptual
> leap doesn’t lose anyone in a high-altitude storm of abstraction.
>
> *Conceptual Jumps and Methodological Gymnastics*
>
> The authors skate on the thin ice of mangled metaphors and (in)apt
> analogies, equating meteorological measures like potential temperature with
> financial metrics such as net present value. It’s a neat trick, suggesting
> that counting clouds might help us understand counting cash—or at least
> make for an interesting undergraduate lecture. However, the paper might
> have benefited from less philosophizing and more data, as the lack of
> empirical evidence turns the exercise into an academic tightrope walk
> without a safety net.
>
> *Economic Weather Forecasting*
>
> The discussion shines a comedic spotlight on how adjusting for moisture in
> weather somehow relates to adjusting for risk in finance. It’s an
> enlightening comparison—if one squints hard enough. The suggestion that
> these adjustments can lead to more robust predictive models in both fields
> is as hopeful as a weatherman predicting sunshine in a hurricane.
>
> *Conclusion: Intellectual Curiosity or Academic Fantasy?*
>
> In its essence, the paper by GuPTa et al. serves up a tempting buffet of
> interdisciplinary connections, rich with flavors of complexity but light on
> the meat of proof. It dances around the maypole of theoretical
> possibilities, cheerfully tying ribbons of finance and meteorology
> together, but it doesn’t quite convince us to join the dance. Future work,
> hopefully, might include actual data to anchor the whimsical kites the
> authors have set aloft in this breezy exploration.
>
> This paper is reminiscent of Doug (with a bone) Robert's 2010 paper on
> "The EconoPhysics of Swirlies" in spite of significant differences in
> content and style.
>
> - S. Snark
>
> Nick,
>
> Gupta and Tucker have a working draft paper making Complexity connections
> between Weather and Financial Markets. They must have been lurking on
> FRIAM and listening in on our in-person chat Friday. They listed you as a
> co-author!  Looks like it needs to be edited and filled out a bit ;-)
>
>   Their paper is at: https://bit.ly/WeatherFinance_GuptaTucker_etal
>
> Some of their Meteorological - Financial analogies:
>
>    - Potential Temperature and Net Present Value
>    - Equivalent Potential Temperature and Risk-Adjusted NPV
>    - Atmospheric Lapse Rate and Bond Yield Curves with and without
>    inversions
>    - Potential Vorticity and Market Liquidity
>
>
>
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