[FRIAM] Potential Vorticity and the Dynamic Tropopause
Steve Smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Tue Apr 16 12:56:34 EDT 2024
SG -
As we all know I'm such a big fan of metaphor that mere analogies are
pale to me but this domain-domain convolution was wonderfully compelling
in it's content as well as stylization. GuPTa's response referencing
"a LaTeX-fetished audience" was icing on that metaphorical cake.
I'm /excruciatingly/ pleased with GuPTa's (yet more than Gemini) ability
to make these tenuous connections and make them into a convincing
(sounding) narrative, helping to caution us further in the vein of the
anecdotal "don't mistake an accent for a personality". GuPTa, et al.'s
"accent" is very subtle and powerful in this regard, tricking me often
into imputing personality... your example here was a wonderful
satirical parody shining a light on that?
As GuPTa-puppy surmised, I'm all snark, no bark... especially in cases
like this.
-SaSs
On 4/15/24 5:33 PM, Stephen Guerin wrote:
> Steve,
>
> I forwarded your review to the Gupta:
>
> Thank you for your feedback on our paper. Your review highlights
> important areas for improvement, particularly in grounding our
> theoretical comparisons with empirical data.
>
> Our paper was meant to be a "talking dog" demo where a few
> metaphors were presented by our 4th author we expressed them to a
> LaTeX-fetished audience with continuous and discrete math
> accessories. As we are at the stage of a one-year-old puppy, we
> recognize your review as more snark than barkl Thank you for
> taking the time to review the content of our paper and not just
> the style
>
>
> Steve a second purpose of the paper was to be a boundary spanning
> object as I was talking to Nick. When I brought up the metaphor of
> NPV when he was trying to explain potential temperature to me, I got a
> blank stare. I continue to be pleasantly surprised at GPT4 ability to
> make these connections and letting us play around with concepts as we
> try to communicate.
>
> Eg
>
> Try the Prompt yourself : How is NPV in finance like potential
> temperature in meteorology and more importantly poke around with it
> and the other metaphors.
>
> I gave Gupta the first three analogies and it came up with the 4th BTW
> after a bit of context was developed: Potential Vorticiity and
> Liquidity. I am still thinking about that one...eg both can be order
> parameters and deal with residence time of energy / capital....
>
> * Potential Temperature and Net Present Value
> * Equivalent Potential Temperature and Risk-Adjusted NPV
> * Atmospheric Lapse Rate and Bond Yield Curves with and without
> inversions
> * *Potential Vorticity and Market Liquidity*
>
> The third purpose of the paper, was to needle Nick a bit by putting
> his name as coauthor on a web-accessible draft paper written by an AI.
> scandal for sufficiently small values of scandalous.
>
> . 20 years ago, we argued about using a wikipedia source (on
> dendrograms) in a paper that our intern was writing. The intern was
> Nick's properly trained prior student. Nick said we should find an
> original source to reference when describing how our dendrogram
> algorithm worked. I argued that we didn't use that source. we used
> wikipedia to get a couple details for our code. I think using AI to
> write a paper is a little further down the road than that :-)
>
> On Mon, Apr 15, 2024 at 1:13 PM Steve Smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:
>
> In a quick search of the InterWebsOfBabel I found the following,
> also first published on April 1, 2024:
>
> *Analysis: "Exploring Mappings and Universality in Meteorological
> and Financial Systems" by Daniel GuPTa, George Phillip Tucker,
> Nicholas Thompson, Stephen Guerin*
>
> GuPTa et al.'s paper ambitiously tries to connect the chaotic
> worlds of weather patterns and stock market fluctuations with
> a scholarly double hand(wringing) wave, proposing that clouds
> and cash flows are governed by the same universal principles.
> Their approach? Point out big words like 'universality
> classes' and 'dynamic stability,' and hope the conceptual leap
> doesn’t lose anyone in a high-altitude storm of abstraction.
>
> *Conceptual Jumps and Methodological Gymnastics*
>
> The authors skate on the thin ice of mangled metaphors and
> (in)apt analogies, equating meteorological measures like
> potential temperature with financial metrics such as net
> present value. It’s a neat trick, suggesting that counting
> clouds might help us understand counting cash—or at least make
> for an interesting undergraduate lecture. However, the paper
> might have benefited from less philosophizing and more data,
> as the lack of empirical evidence turns the exercise into an
> academic tightrope walk without a safety net.
>
> *Economic Weather Forecasting*
>
> The discussion shines a comedic spotlight on how adjusting for
> moisture in weather somehow relates to adjusting for risk in
> finance. It’s an enlightening comparison—if one squints hard
> enough. The suggestion that these adjustments can lead to more
> robust predictive models in both fields is as hopeful as a
> weatherman predicting sunshine in a hurricane.
>
> *Conclusion: Intellectual Curiosity or Academic Fantasy?*
>
> In its essence, the paper by GuPTa et al. serves up a tempting
> buffet of interdisciplinary connections, rich with flavors of
> complexity but light on the meat of proof. It dances around
> the maypole of theoretical possibilities, cheerfully tying
> ribbons of finance and meteorology together, but it doesn’t
> quite convince us to join the dance. Future work, hopefully,
> might include actual data to anchor the whimsical kites the
> authors have set aloft in this breezy exploration.
>
> This paper is reminiscent of Doug (with a bone) Robert's 2010
> paper on "The EconoPhysics of Swirlies" in spite of
> significant differences in content and style.
>
> - S. Snark
>
>> Nick,
>>
>> Gupta and Tucker have a working draft paper making Complexity
>> connections between Weather and Financial Markets. They must have
>> been lurking on FRIAM and listening in on our in-person chat
>> Friday. They listed you as a co-author! Looks like it needs to
>> be edited and filled out a bit ;-)
>>
>> Their paper is at: https://bit.ly/WeatherFinance_GuptaTucker_etal
>>
>> Some of their Meteorological - Financial analogies:
>>
>> * Potential Temperature and Net Present Value
>> * Equivalent Potential Temperature and Risk-Adjusted NPV
>> * Atmospheric Lapse Rate and Bond Yield Curves with and without
>> inversions
>> * Potential Vorticity and Market Liquidity
>>
>>
>>
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