[FRIAM] SIR+HD model in JavaScript + Herd Immunity question.

[Steven A Smith]

I'm sure many have seen this... if not scroll to the bottom for the JS
model (you can download/inspect/modify the code if you like)...   It
doesn't stop at SIR but adds H(ospitalization) and D(eath)...   and is
parameterized with sliders.

   
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html

And the JS (warning,huge with lots of device/browser-specific cruft):

   
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/03/16/opinion-coronavirus-model-2/d268775237c095931fe2fae6015c568c0011fd76/build/js/main.js

I don't feel comfortable having a strong opinion about this beyond
echoing what THIS article says about the risk of quick mitigation
followed by return-to-normal *without* establishing significant
herd-immunity.   This author refers to it as "hiding infections in the
future" and makes a good point about staving off infection too well for
too long and getting hit hard next "cold and flu" season IF we haven't
established good treatment, increased health care capacity, and/or
effective vaccines.

   
https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b

For better or worse, other countries are trying different mixtures and
styles of mitigation and have different levels of health-care capacity
and ability to location-track and shut down mobility.

While many criticize (or defend) the lax or laggy response of many Red
States, this provides yet another diversity/ensemble study for the
ultimate "model" of all... in this case, the territory IS the territory,
the population IS one big fat analog computer for calculating the
pandemic (the answer to which, is naturally 42).  

Of course, "scofflaw" communities like the spring-break youth, the
evangelical churches, and states like Georgia with governers who say "we
didn't know that people without symptoms could be infectious until 24
hours ago!" represent a reservoir for exposure if they continue to mix,
but might end up being a source of virus resistant.  

https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/04/coronavirus-state-social-distancing-policy/

https://faculty.washington.edu/cadolph/papers/AABFW2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR09JwtQzEkerOGiRXxaiptbyDqGZZ7_7Ullg7UX9qtVDFWumdKZGF8WOzY


My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this:   What if the
Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the battle in a
few states like high-density, early onset new york/new jersey,  and
reduce deaths (including ones avoidable if not for overwhelming
health-care) but also reduce herd-immunity.  And the Red States limit
their mitigation, take a huge hit in infection and death (but moderated
by mostly being less-dense states) but come out the other side with
better herd-immunity.   I can imagine fresh border-checks (remember when
every state border crossing had a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict
Red Staters infecting Blue States early on, then later vice-versa?  
Seems like the ongoing extraction economy in (mostly Red States) is
pretty social-distancy while the more service economy of Blue States is
at risk... though professional and even office work is nominally quite
easily social-disanced.

Mumble,

 - Steve


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