[FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState

Tue Apr 7 23:23:15 EDT 2020

Steve (Smith), 

I have always assumed that “community transmission” is one of those bullshit terms that refers to our own ignorance.  If we were unable to find out how it got transmitted then it was an instance of “community transmission”.  Am I wrong about that?  

So, community transmission is just the residue after we have failed at contact tracing.  My assumption is that until we have a vaccine, we have to maintain sufficient social distancing to make rigorous contact tracing (and isolation) possible.  In other words, I have to have contacted so few people (because of social isolation) that when I get sick, all the people I have contacted can be isolated for two weeks.  Such a policy might permit the reopening of offices on a alternative shift basis and the re opening of some stores with policies equivalent to those the food stores are adopting, but it wont permit reopening of entertainment venues, hair dressers, concerts, churches, lecture halls, bars, festivals, large scale air travel,  and other activities that we think of when we think of “tourism”.  

I WANT to think different, and therefore I am interested in the fact that you seem to disagree with me on this point.  

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Tuesday, April 7, 2020 6:07 PM
To: friam at redfish.com
Subject: [FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState

Steve, 

Perhaps we might talk about this on Friday.   I guess the questions are, 

“Can we eliminate community transfer?”  

By this, I assume you mean the "crypto" transfer where the *source* of infection isn't recognized even in retrospect? 

The conventional/modeling wisdom is keeping R0 (the number of people each infected person infects... or the *exponent* of the exponential growth) below 1.0...  

and, if so, “At what level of social distancing do we have to maintain in order to make sure that a program of testing, vigorous contact tracing and isolation is assured?”

I would claim that the *quality* of social distancing is very important...  but those "qualities" haven't been determined yet.   In principle,  keeping 

 Not clear how to do that in the blue states if the red states are still going exponential.  

Re: Balkanization

I speculated in another thread (another forum?) that if the Red States continue to be reluctant to self-isolate, they will pay the price in a tall curve, mitigated somewhat by the lower population densities and "enclave" nature of many small towns...   compared for example to big cities connected by a carpet of suburbs mixing commuters from multiple urban centers in every neighborhood.

And then that Blue States might manage to flatten their curves more quickly but aggravated by the nature of denser urban/suburban landscapes. 

In the end, the Red States may have more (percentage) infections and deaths, but what goes with that is higher herd-immunity.   So Blue States might want to close their borders to Red States during the first wave, but then the Red States might want to close them the other direction when "infiltrating" Blues are more likely to be crypto-infected?

I didn't like that Zombie Apocalypse series that was so popular a few years ago because I felt it promoted xenophobia and rapid dehumanization of "the other"...  a "friend" can become a "dangerous enemy" at the drop of a splash of blood (or spittle in this case)?   Or maybe we can follow @POTUS lead and "vote by tweet"?  then the battle will be between Russian, Chinese, and Anonymous Bots stuffing the @USElectionBallotBox ;) ?

Also, I would like to hear a lot of wisdom about how we arrange and conduct an election during this mess. 

I think this is not so much a technical problem as a social one. FOX and their most famous audience in the White House are already making sounds against the idea of voting by mail as A) Unamerican; B) likely to be cheated (only Democrats cheat of course).   I don't think it is an insurmountable technical problem (vote by mail).   Expanded "early voting" can help a lot, as can absentee ballots.  

The scene in Wisconsin today is a good advanced test-case of how refactoring the mechanics of an election (timing, absentee, mail, etc.) will be politicized immediately.  I'm hoping that the remaining Democrat primaries and the Convention will serve as a lightning rod to bring some of that out *before* the main elections which will be much more controversial.

I am hoping that we collectively have a much better handle on things by then and the problem becomes *mostly* moot... though I can imagine there will be more demand for early/absentee voting in all venues.

- STeve

N

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam  <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Tuesday, April 7, 2020 9:16 AM
To: friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com> 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] SFI virtual workshop: After the Wave

SG

I found Meyers' talks from the Fall which preceded (presaged?) this and thought you had just linked those!  I'm glad to see our "big siblings on the hill" are on this with full attention.

Did anyone else watch this 2 hour presentation?  I'm working my way through it now in the background.

SS

I mentioned this on the close of Virtual Friam today:
  https://santafe.edu/news-center/news/after-first-wave-virtual-workshop-covid-19-pandemic 

The first wave of COVID-19 is well underway, and social distancing will hopefully bend the curve downward (after far too high a price is paid). But what comes next? Under what circumstances and in what way can we lift quarantine? On March 31, five speakers from epidemiology and economics discussed strategies for both public health and economic recovery and answered questions from the SFI community. This was the first of multiple “lightning workshops” that will be convened to address this crisis. 

Speakers: Lauren Ancel Meyers, Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin; SFI Sara Del Valle, Los Alamos National Laboratory Caroline Buckee, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard Rajiv Sethi, Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University; SFI Glen Weyl, Microsoft and RadicalxChange Foundation  

_______________________________________________________________________
Stephen.Guerin at Simtable.com <mailto:stephen.guerin at simtable.com>  

CEO, Simtable  http://www.simtable.com <http://www.simtable.com/> 

1600 Lena St #D1, Santa Fe, NM 87505 

office: (505)995-0206 mobile: (505)577-5828

twitter: @simtable

zoom.com/j/5055775828 <http://zoom.com/j/5055775828> 

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