[FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState
Steven A Smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Wed Apr 8 01:37:35 EDT 2020
Nick -
I wrote (yet) another long-winded answer but am trying to give you the
most succinct version I can:
I think you are nearly correct.
First: Yes, "community transmission" is somewhat another name for our
ignorance... but it is a critical threshold. As soon as you have one
case you don't know where it came from, it is very likely that you have
more, and for each of those, you will have yet more... so it isn't
quite as benign as simple "ignorance" implies...
Second: The virus will spread exponentially until we reduce the average
number of people to be infected by a given infected person. This is
what is called R0. As people get infected and recover and therefore
become (very likely) immune, the number of susceptible individuals in
the population goes down, and the R0 with it. If you encounter 10
people a day on average, and have a 20% chance of infecting them but
half of them are immune, then your R0 becomes 10*.2/2 = 1.0 ! When R0
drops to 1.0, the exponential growth flattens to linear and anything
below 1.0 leads to an eventual dying out. A widely deployed vaccine
allows you to skip the step of having to become infected, survive, and
recover.
In the meantime (before sufficient herd-immunity is reached naturally,
augmented by vaccines eventually) we need to practice some amount of
social distancing to keep R0 down. As we learn more about the modes of
transmission, add early detection (through widespread testing, and
possibly wide-spread citizen-reporting) then our best hope is
significant social distancing. Meanwhile, more severe social distancing
protects our most vulnerable (elderly and those with conditions known to
go badly with COVID19). We will see properly vetted/tested anti-virals
and symptom-reducers (e.g. cytokine storm prevention) before a vaccine
which will reduce the number of people needing hospitalization as well
as mortality. And lastly, antibody/plasma transfusions may help some of
the more at-risk or critical workers have temporary immunity while they
wait for a vaccine.
Right now, many of us are isolated at the individual, the couple or
possibly the nuclear family unit. In principle, once we believe we have
isolated sufficiently well to not have much risk of contagion and
sufficiently long to have either had symptoms or to have been infected
asymptomatically but recovered. This might mean, for example, that if
you and your wife and your children and their children have all remained
separated but isolated, then you might be safe reuniting with them as
long as NONE OF YOU are mixing with a larger population.
But like with the STD issue, all it takes is one promiscuous (outside
the group) person at the orgy to ruin the "safe space". The larger the
(extended) group, the more chance someone will defect and bring it into
the group unexpectedly.
So yes, much of what you call tourism will be blunted/modified... so
will casino gambling, church attendance, public transit, etc. I
believe that buses are still running some places, but most passengers
are likely wearing gloves/masks, sitting one per seat-row and the staff
is wiping down hand-rails and other surfaces often. Airlines will
probably stand back up under similar restrictions soon. Churches and
maybe sporting events, and theater as well. But probably not for
(many?) months...
I still remember when auditoriums and movie theaters had ashtrays in the
backs of seats... we will probably remember fondly when seats were
packed side-by-by side and our great grandchildren will ask "grandpa...
why are there all those holes in the floor between the seats? People
didn't *really* sit so close did they? Don't they know that isn't
safe?" and "why weren't you wearing your masks in all the old pictures?".
Hope this helps a little?
- Steve
>
> Steve (Smith),
>
>
>
> I have always assumed that “community transmission” is one of those
> bullshit terms that refers to our own ignorance. If we were unable to
> find out how it got transmitted then it was an instance of “community
> transmission”. Am I wrong about that?
>
>
>
> So, community transmission is just the residue after we have failed at
> contact tracing. My assumption is that until we have a vaccine, we
> have to maintain sufficient social distancing to make rigorous contact
> tracing (and isolation) possible. In other words, I have to have
> contacted so few people (because of social isolation) that when I get
> sick, all the people I have contacted can be isolated for two weeks.
> Such a policy might permit the reopening of offices on a alternative
> shift basis and the re opening of some stores with policies equivalent
> to those the food stores are adopting, but it wont permit reopening of
> entertainment venues, hair dressers, concerts, churches, lecture
> halls, bars, festivals, large scale air travel, and other activities
> that we think of when we think of “tourism”.
>
>
>
> I WANT to think different, and therefore I am interested in the fact
> that you seem to disagree with me on this point.
>
>
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Steven A Smith
> *Sent:* Tuesday, April 7, 2020 6:07 PM
> *To:* friam at redfish.com
> *Subject:* [FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState
>
>
>
>
>
> Steve,
>
>
>
> Perhaps we might talk about this on Friday. I guess the
> questions are,
>
>
>
> “Can we eliminate community transfer?”
>
> By this, I assume you mean the "crypto" transfer where the *source* of
> infection isn't recognized even in retrospect?
>
> The conventional/modeling wisdom is keeping R0 (the number of people
> each infected person infects... or the *exponent* of the exponential
> growth) below 1.0...
>
> and, if so, “At what level of social distancing do we have to
> maintain in order to make sure that a program of testing, vigorous
> contact tracing and isolation is assured?”
>
> I would claim that the *quality* of social distancing is very
> important... but those "qualities" haven't been determined yet. In
> principle, keeping
>
>
> Not clear how to do that in the blue states if the red states are
> still going exponential.
>
> Re: Balkanization
>
> I speculated in another thread (another forum?) that if the Red States
> continue to be reluctant to self-isolate, they will pay the price in a
> tall curve, mitigated somewhat by the lower population densities and
> "enclave" nature of many small towns... compared for example to big
> cities connected by a carpet of suburbs mixing commuters from multiple
> urban centers in every neighborhood.
>
> And then that Blue States might manage to flatten their curves more
> quickly but aggravated by the nature of denser urban/suburban landscapes.
>
> In the end, the Red States may have more (percentage) infections and
> deaths, but what goes with that is higher herd-immunity. So Blue
> States might want to close their borders to Red States during the
> first wave, but then the Red States might want to close them the other
> direction when "infiltrating" Blues are more likely to be crypto-infected?
>
> I didn't like that Zombie Apocalypse series that was so popular a few
> years ago because I felt it promoted xenophobia and rapid
> dehumanization of "the other"... a "friend" can become a "dangerous
> enemy" at the drop of a splash of blood (or spittle in this case)?
> Or maybe we can follow @POTUS lead and "vote by tweet"? then the
> battle will be between Russian, Chinese, and Anonymous Bots stuffing
> the @USElectionBallotBox ;) ?
>
>
>
> Also, I would like to hear a lot of wisdom about how we arrange
> and conduct an election during this mess.
>
> I think this is not so much a technical problem as a social one. FOX
> and their most famous audience in the White House are already making
> sounds against the idea of voting by mail as A) Unamerican; B) likely
> to be cheated (only Democrats cheat of course). I don't think it is
> an insurmountable technical problem (vote by mail). Expanded "early
> voting" can help a lot, as can absentee ballots.
>
> The scene in Wisconsin today is a good advanced test-case of how
> refactoring the mechanics of an election (timing, absentee, mail,
> etc.) will be politicized immediately. I'm hoping that the remaining
> Democrat primaries and the Convention will serve as a lightning rod to
> bring some of that out *before* the main elections which will be much
> more controversial.
>
> I am hoping that we collectively have a much better handle on things
> by then and the problem becomes *mostly* moot... though I can imagine
> there will be more demand for early/absentee voting in all venues.
>
> - STeve
>
>
>
>
>
> N
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com>
> <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Steven A Smith
> *Sent:* Tuesday, April 7, 2020 9:16 AM
> *To:* friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] SFI virtual workshop: After the Wave
>
>
>
> SG
>
> I found Meyers' talks from the Fall which preceded (presaged?)
> this and thought you had just linked those! I'm glad to see our
> "big siblings on the hill" are on this with full attention.
>
>
>
> Did anyone else watch this 2 hour presentation? I'm working my
> way through it now in the background.
>
>
>
> SS
>
>
>
> I mentioned this on the close of Virtual Friam today:
>
> https://santafe.edu/news-center/news/after-first-wave-virtual-workshop-covid-19-pandemic
>
> The first wave of COVID-19 is well underway, and social
> distancing will hopefully bend the curve downward (after far
> too high a price is paid). But what comes next? Under what
> circumstances and in what way can we lift quarantine? On March
> 31, five speakers from epidemiology and economics discussed
> strategies for both public health and economic recovery and
> answered questions from the SFI community. This was the first
> of multiple “lightning workshops” that will be convened to
> address this crisis.
>
> Speakers: Lauren Ancel Meyers, Integrative Biology, University
> of Texas, Austin; SFI Sara Del Valle, Los Alamos National
> Laboratory Caroline Buckee, T.H. Chan School of Public Health,
> Harvard Rajiv Sethi, Economics, Barnard College, Columbia
> University; SFI Glen Weyl, Microsoft and RadicalxChange
> Foundation
>
>
> _______________________________________________________________________
> Stephen.Guerin at Simtable.com <mailto:stephen.guerin at simtable.com>
>
> CEO, Simtable http://www.simtable.com <http://www.simtable.com/>
>
> 1600 Lena St #D1, Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> office: (505)995-0206 mobile: (505)577-5828
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>
> zoom.com/j/5055775828 <http://zoom.com/j/5055775828>
>
>
>
>
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