[FRIAM] Fwd: [NICAR-L] AP/Johns Hopkins COVID-19 data

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My guess would be parka, hood, glasses, 6' distance, and limited trips will go first because they have very limited effect. If you doubt masks have an effect, then these should be so doubtful as to be silly. But sanitation and aerosol/spittle measures have clear support. 

The conversation you forwarded seems to reduce the complex vector space of transmission into some kind of coarse, unidimensional forcing function. (Isolation and quarantine are anything but unidimensional. So, the analogy between them and dampening is stretched.) But if we were to do that, then limited trips would be the most salient, I think. My guess is an periodic driver (and measurement) of stay-at-home orders would be reasonably effective. What we've done so far with "essential businesses" is too coarse. E.g. I can go to the liquor store, but my arborist can't come prune my trees ... way more than 6' away from any other human. I can go to a restaurant and order a tossed salad to take home, but can't go play frisbee with a dog in a public park.

Many businesses already have particular days of the week they're open. It seems reasonable to relax the closures periodically, say everything's open on Fri and Sat, but closed every other day. That driving signal would surely show up in the number of confirmed cases.

On 4/8/20 2:21 PM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com wrote:
> I walk a mile or so a day in the neighborhood, designating one “clean” hand (for adjusting my glasses, etc.) and one “dirty” hand for touching anything outside my own person, on those rare occasions that I have to.  I scrub both hands when I get back.  I go once to the store a week (at most).  I put on a parka, hood, glasses, face mask, wear gloves, and I carry alcohol with me for rubbing down any surface I touch and sterilizing the gloves afterwards.  I back off from any encounter with a human being closer from 6 feet.  Assume that all members of my pod follow these same rules.  Which of these rules do you see us relaxing after the bent curve? 


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