[FRIAM] covid19.healthdata.org

[uǝlƃ ☣]

Can you explain why you think estimates are optimistic? Their uncertainty shading gives them quite a bit of leeway.

On 4/9/20 11:18 AM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com wrote:
> Sorry, I have never been much good at this screen capture thang.  Below are fragments of two pages from the IHME website,
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> https://covid19.healthdata.org
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> the same website from which I sent you a bit of cheerful FAQ, last night.   You can get to any state and several countries, by clicking on the down arrow beside the heading, United States of America.
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> The first screen shot shows how they understand what is going on in NM,  where they say that we have no “stay at home order” implemented.  And indeed, there seems to be more “bustle” on the streets than I would have expected. 
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> The second shows their prediction of resource demand for the US generally, which they claim will reach it’s peak in a few days.  This just seems howlingly optimistic.   I suppose they are thinking that the high population centers are peaking now, and whatever happens in the South won’t push us to a higher peak if those blue-state numbers are falling.  Still ….
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> The FAQ seems to suggest that this will be a nightmare in the rear view mirror as we all  gather for the 4^th of July Celebration on the Mall, with Trump soliciting adulation for his terrific response to the virus.  This HAS to be nuts.  What am I missing, here?

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