[FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

[Marcus Daniels]

Nick writes:

< The basic message is that we are effed from here to Sunday because we don’t know the initial conditions.  It’s like modeling the weather on a day when all the weather observers are known to be drunk.  >

Another perspective on prediction.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10670-019-00165-8

________________________________
From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of thompnickson2 at gmail.com <thompnickson2 at gmail.com>
Sent: Tuesday, April 14, 2020 11:07 AM
To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19


Eric, ‘n all,



The Pandemic Cartoon,



https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling





is REALLY GOOD.



The basic message is that we are effed from here to Sunday because we don’t know the initial conditions.  It’s like modeling the weather on a day when all the weather observers are known to be drunk.



And that message comes through even tho the cartoon NEVER reminds us of the stupendous irrationality of non-linear systems.



But one thing we do know.  We have bent the curve in Santa Fe.  Please see attachment.  Now, mind you, I still think there are about 100 active cases of the virus in the County at the moment and until we know where each of those people is and what she/he is doing, we had better stay home and stay masked.



Nick



Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com<mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/





From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Eric Charles
Sent: Tuesday, April 14, 2020 10:24 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19



Most of you probably know the site Five Thirty Eight, which emerged over the last few election cycles as the top nerdy polling / public-opinion-modeling site. Some of you know SMBC, which has spent quite a few years towards the top of the pantheon of nerd comics. Well, the two collaborated on a long-form comic explaining why it is so hard to get stable models of Covid-19. It is really well done. If you have been struggling to explain to people how models like this work and why they are challenging, I highly recommend you try sharing this with them:


<goog_1530855300>

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling




-----------

Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist

American University - Adjunct Instructor
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