[FRIAM] Local News not so good
uǝlƃ ☣
gepropella at gmail.com
Wed Apr 22 20:20:00 EDT 2020
If median ... median ... incubation is ~5 days, and we had perfect case data (Ha!), then we'd see the bump near the 18th/19th. The rt.live data shows NM's R(t) > 1 on the 14th, two days after Easter, then seemingly peaking ~16th, with a fat tail. The smoother could easily be affecting that. A good counter hypothesis is *that* is your bump and you'll return to the path you were on on the 12th.
On 4/22/20 5:08 PM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com wrote:
> Well, the next few days will tell the story.
>
> I expect an easter bump.
--
☣ uǝlƃ
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