[FRIAM] Local News not so good

[uǝlƃ ☣]

If median ... median ... incubation is ~5 days, and we had perfect case data (Ha!), then we'd see the bump near the 18th/19th. The rt.live data shows NM's R(t) > 1 on the 14th, two days after Easter, then seemingly peaking ~16th, with a fat tail. The smoother could easily be affecting that. A good counter hypothesis is *that* is your bump and you'll return to the path you were on on the 12th.


On 4/22/20 5:08 PM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com wrote:
> Well, the next few days will tell the story. 
> 
> I expect an easter bump. 


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☣ uǝlƃ