[FRIAM] Local News not so good

[thompnickson2 at gmail.com]

Well, how long does it take a case to incubate, "come in",  and be tested.  I was thinking that was around ten days.  I will check with the DHS data when it comes out on Thursday.  Remember most cases start (and often remain) pretty cold-like.  Still, there are more tests around, now, so the lag should be decreasing. 

Nick 


Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
 


-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of u?l? ?
Sent: Wednesday, April 22, 2020 6:20 PM
To: FriAM <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Local News not so good

If median ... median ... incubation is ~5 days, and we had perfect case data (Ha!), then we'd see the bump near the 18th/19th. The rt.live data shows NM's R(t) > 1 on the 14th, two days after Easter, then seemingly peaking ~16th, with a fat tail. The smoother could easily be affecting that. A good counter hypothesis is *that* is your bump and you'll return to the path you were on on the 12th.


On 4/22/20 5:08 PM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com wrote:
> Well, the next few days will tell the story. 
> 
> I expect an easter bump. 


--
☣ uǝlƃ

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