[FRIAM] Important New Climate Study

[Merle Lefkoff]

For you, Pieter:   https://twitter.com/i/status/1211631520760221696

On Mon, Jan 6, 2020 at 11:21 PM Pieter Steenekamp <
pieters at randcontrols.co.za> wrote:

> I'd like to read the paper, but it's pay-walled so I realise my comments
> are on very thin ice. But I do accept that since the mini ice age the
> global temperatures have been rising and CO2 levels caused by human
> activities have also been rising and also contribute to the increase in
> temperatures. So I'm happy to accept the findings of a paper that claims to
> detect the fingerprints of externally driven climate change. On the other
> hand, looking at historical global temperatures (much longer than since the
> end of the mini ice age), I don't think there are solid arguments that only
> human actions cause climate change. Earth has gone through "hot house"
> periods and "snowball" periods with no humans burning fossil fuels. A mere
> thousand years ago the Vikings lived in Greenland and it's too cold there
> now for the lifestyle they had.
>
> The million dollar question is how much? To what extent does CO2
> contributes to global warming. The IPCC published a figure of between 1.5
> and 4.5 for the "climate sensitivity". This is the increase in global
> temperature for each doubling of CO2 levels. If it is close to 1,5, we
> don't have anything to worry about, if it's close to 4.5 then we should
> stop burning fossil fuels now. The best empirical evidence I could find for
> the value of climate sensititvity is from the paper by Lewis and Curry
> https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0667.1. and they find
> it to be closer to 1.5.
>
> My conclusion is, yes, burning fossil fuels does increase global
> temperatures and I support the efforts of the likes of Bill Gates doing his
> utmost to find an "energy miracle" to provide abundant clean energy
> sources. But personally I'm not ready to start panicking about climate
> change. I'd rather support the copenhagenconsensus.com
> <https://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/> approach. I quote "The Copenhagen
> Consensus Center is a think tank that researches the smartest solutions for
> the world's biggest problems, advising policy-makers and philanthropists
> how to spend their money most effectively." By all means, include climate
> change as a risk, it undoubtedly is , but IMO it's wise to keep a balance
> about  other existential risks too, and do proper cost and benefits
> analyses for different risks and actions.
>
> Pieter Steenekamp
> Mossel Bay, South Africa
>
>
> On Tue, 7 Jan 2020 at 06:56, Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> For the first time, scientists have detected the “fingerprint” of
>> human-induced climate change on daily weather patterns at the global scale.
>> If verified by subsequent work, the findings, published Thursday in
>> Nature Climate Change <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0666-7>,
>> would upend the long-established narrative that daily weather is distinct
>> from long-term climate change.
>>
>> The study’s results also imply that research aimed at assessing the human
>> role in contributing to extreme weather events such as heat waves and
>> floods may be underestimating the contribution.
>>
>> --
>> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
>> Center for Emergent Diplomacy
>> emergentdiplomacy.org
>> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
>> merlelefkoff at gmail.com <merlelefoff at gmail.com>
>> mobile:  (303) 859-5609
>> skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
>> twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff
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-- 
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
merlelefkoff at gmail.com <merlelefoff at gmail.com>
mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff
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