[FRIAM] Does anybody know directly a covid case?
Steve Smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Sun Jun 28 21:18:12 EDT 2020
My nephew in Tucson very likely had it... pretty harsh symptoms for
about a month (April into May) and still recovering his
stamina/breath... he called his doc who advised him to "stay home and
ride it out" but said he couldn't offer a test unless he was admitted
into the hospital. He may now be able to get an antigen test if he
insists. His sister is a freshly minted RN who cares for dozens of
COVID19 patients in a "nearly" full hospital in Riverside CA... many
of the emergency personnel in the county she works with have contracted
it (because their PPE isn't as good as the hospital workers, and they
have less control over their contact with infected persons). I know
about a half-dozen people who *want to believe* they had it for one
reason or another. I'm doubting most if not all of them.
My $.02 analysis: The algebra of network transmission is geometric but
the awareness of other's condition is closer to linear. Just because
every actor is 7 degrees from Kevin Bacon doesn't mean many of them know
the path(s) between them. This means if/when you do contract it, you
probably won't see it coming, especially with the higher rates of
asymptomatic infections being recognized?
From rt.live, two/thirds of the states have an Ro over 1.0, with the
error bars, one might argue that many are around 1.33, which happens to
also be the latest estimate for OK. Ro is the mean number of people
that a COVID19 infected person will infect directly, given all of the
factors, including social distancing, use of PPE and disinfection, etc.
in place for the person. If the exponent is 1.33 then R1 is 1.78, and
r6 (Kevin Bacon) is over 7.
<Political Rant Alert>
So when one "average" person in Tulsa contracts COVID19, in 7 "gestation
periods" (average 2-4 days?) 7 people will have contracted it for an R6
of 7. However, if that "average" person goes to a Trump Rally on day1
and chooses not to wear a mask (even if they do normally) then their Ro
goes up significantly. If they *also* shout "lock her up!" or "build
the wall!" or "4 more years!" "MAGAAAAaaa!" alternatively into the
faces of the people beside them (gotta pack every seat, can't look like
a wuss!) and over the shoulders of 3 or 4 in the row below them, then Ro
jumps by 4 or 6 and then if they keep shouting and embracing and
chest-bumping on the way out to the parking lot, you might add another 5
or 10 or 20. But "no problem", that is just one night of glory...
maybe the 10 or 100 or 1000 people infected and attending *only*
"super-spread" to 10x or 20x (there were only 6.xK so that caps it!)
... but wait! Do you (and all those you infect) go home and go back
to Ro==1.33 behaviour, or are you all jacked up on Trump Fever and
decide you will liberate yourself from that damned mask, and all that
wussy "social distancing"? So now your Ro is >1.33... conservatively
those infected while wearing their red hat too tight might slip by with
an Ro of 2.0.... and since you are too proud to spend time with
LIbtards and Wussy Dems ro^=2 becomes an R6 of 64. Sounds like the
perfect formula for a super-spreading event. I'm guessing my estimates
here are overdone or we will *patently* see a Trump-Spike from Tulsa
(do we even know how many attendees were from OK?).
I understand that Trump2020 app records when it encounters a bluetooth
beacon
<https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/06/21/1004228/trumps-data-hungry-invasive-app-is-a-voter-surveillance-tool-of-extraordinary-scope/>
(ostensibly only in Trump2020 yard signs?), maybe a white-hat hacker can
hijack it to do peer-to-peer contact tracing to *demonstrate* this
KevinBaconCovid19 effect? Or maybe the TikTokkers have already hacked
Trump2020App and are running around making Brad Parscale entirely
misunderstand his demographic... nothing like a little
false-confidence to FFfff up a campaign (eh DNC 2016)?
Of course, I could probably tell a similar story about BLM protestors
(maybe even in Tulsa?) but oddly most of them seem to be happy to wear
masks and maintain some distance, even if they are shouting "I can't
Breathe!" and "Say their names!" or "No Trump! No KKK! No fascist
USA!" at the top of their lungs, They might just be *doubling* their
Ro to 2.7 and when they go home, they may well return to Ro=1.33 or
better?
Did anyone else watch the Series "Watchmen" last year (I'm re-watching
it right now)... Way too much premonition! Feeds the conspiracy that
COVID19 and BLM protests are all a "Hollywood Elite" hoax. "Robert
Redford, President for Life!"
- Steve
Search Results
Web resul
On 6/28/20 4:08 PM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com wrote:
>
> I changed the name of this thread. Having my name appear as a subject
> was beginning to make me feel like I died, or something.
>
>
>
> N
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly
> *Sent:* Sunday, June 28, 2020 3:48 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> <friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Nick Thompson
>
>
>
> By the way, I just had a Zoom reunion with my fellow graduate students
> from Carnegie Mellon from the years 1967-1973 more or less. I had
> forgotten that one of them had Covid-19. Stu Card wrote a book with
> Allen Newell on human-computer interaction in which they develop a
> model of the human user. Stu has recovered despite having an
> "underlying condition".
>
>
>
> Frank
>
>
>
> On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 3:12 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com
> <mailto:wimberly3 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
> They did not but I'm sure it's far smaller than 1/3.
>
>
>
> On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 2:08 PM Gary Schiltz
> <gary at naturesvisualarts.com <mailto:gary at naturesvisualarts.com>>
> wrote:
>
> Interesting. I didn't see the show, but might watch it on
> their web site. Did they mention what proportion of white
> Americans know someone who has had Covid-19?
>
>
>
> On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 9:47 AM Frank Wimberly
> <wimberly3 at gmail.com <mailto:wimberly3 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
> One third of all black Americans know a person who has had
> Covid-19. So says CBS Sunday Morning.
>
>
>
> Frank
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
>
>
> On Sun, Jun 28, 2020, 4:18 AM David Eric Smith
> <desmith at santafe.edu <mailto:desmith at santafe.edu>> wrote:
>
> I believe my brother has had it.
>
>
>
> When he is well enough to move around and not infect
> anybody else he intends to go get tested for
> antibodies. Maybe another week.
>
>
>
> Said it was one of the three worst illnesses of his
> life so far, though it looks like mostly extreme
> fatigue and lassitude; not evident trouble breathing.
> And he is 7 years younger than I am.
>
>
>
> Eric
>
>
>
>
>
> On Jun 28, 2020, at 1:23 AM,
> <thompnickson2 at gmail.com
> <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>>
> <thompnickson2 at gmail.com
> <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
>
>
> David,
>
>
>
> nthompson at clarku.edu <mailto:nthompson at clarku.edu>
> works just fine or ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
> <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> .
>
>
>
> I am really, REALLY sorry but I don't think we
> should meet. I just told my "pod" that I think
> that, with the rising cases in neighboring states,
> Santa Fe has started to get more dangerous again,
> and that we should we should be even more careful
> than we have been. (Rural Western Massachusetts
> got a lot of cases from "vacationing" New Yorkers
> in March.) With talk of a vaccine by the
> beginning of next year, it just seems stupid to
> take any risks whatsoever.
>
>
>
> It's not that long. In the meantime, let's
> continue to interact electronically. We could do
> our own zoom session. You will point out how
> "notional" the hazard is, and I will have to admit
> that I actually have no first-hand experience with
> the disease, what-so-ever. I don't even know
> anybody, personally, who has told me that they
> */know anybody/* who has had the disease. It is
> still, for me, a media event. A cultural meme.
> Pray God it remains that way.
>
>
>
> So let's plan to meet "on the other side.".
>
>
>
> You take care!
>
>
>
> Nick
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
> <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,-pCBQAFqcrtIdWF_G2unIMdEIyxbk9ZKmcwsOxETxJjE11XZzzqAv0Ro6JftHecKItimIK0AxbipIn8IGm6WKzh4jdw9Ylo_3GMfBmVeWAG0Y-jh&typo=1>
>
>
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com
> <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> On Behalf Of
> Prof David West
> Sent: Saturday, June 27, 2020 8:10 AM
> To: friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>
> Subject: [FRIAM] Nick Thompson
>
>
>
> Nick,
>
>
>
> Your Earthlink email address (the only other one I
> have) bounced. I am in Santa Fe for a couple of
> days, until July 2.
>
>
>
> davew
>
>
>
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>
>
> --
>
> Frank Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
> 505 670-9918
>
>
>
>
> --
>
> Frank Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
> 505 670-9918
>
>
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