[FRIAM] Does anybody know directly a covid case?

Sun Jun 28 21:55:12 EDT 2020

On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 7:18 PM Steve Smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:

> My nephew in Tucson very likely had it... pretty harsh symptoms for about
> a  month (April into May) and still recovering his stamina/breath...  he
> called his doc who advised him to "stay home and ride it out" but said he
> couldn't offer a test unless he was admitted into the hospital.  He may now
> be able to get an antigen test if he insists.   His sister is a freshly
> minted RN who cares for dozens of COVID19 patients in a "nearly" full
> hospital in Riverside CA...   many of the emergency personnel in the county
> she works with have contracted it (because their PPE isn't as good as the
> hospital workers, and they have less control over their contact with
> infected persons).  I know about a half-dozen people who *want to believe*
> they had it for one reason or another.   I'm doubting most if not all of
> them.
>
> My $.02 analysis:  The algebra of network transmission is geometric but
> the awareness of other's condition is closer to linear.   Just because
> every actor is 7 degrees from Kevin Bacon doesn't mean many of them know
> the path(s) between them.   This means if/when you do contract it, you
> probably won't see it coming, especially with the higher rates of
> asymptomatic infections being recognized?
>
> From rt.live, two/thirds of the states have an Ro over 1.0, with the error
> bars, one might argue that many are around 1.33, which happens to also be
> the latest estimate for OK.   Ro is the mean number of people that a
> COVID19 infected person will infect directly, given all of the factors,
> including social distancing, use of PPE and disinfection, etc. in place for
> the person.   If the exponent is 1.33 then R1 is 1.78, and r6 (Kevin Bacon)
> is over 7.
>
> <Political Rant Alert>
>
> So when one "average" person in Tulsa contracts COVID19, in 7 "gestation
> periods" (average 2-4 days?)  7 people will have contracted it for an R6 of
> 7.   However, if that "average" person goes to a Trump Rally on day1 and
> chooses not to wear a mask (even if they do normally) then their Ro goes up
> significantly.   If they *also* shout "lock her up!" or "build the wall!"
> or "4 more years!"  "MAGAAAAaaa!" alternatively into the faces of the
> people beside them (gotta pack every seat, can't look like a wuss!) and
> over the shoulders of 3 or 4 in the row below them, then Ro jumps by 4 or 6
> and then if they keep shouting and embracing and chest-bumping on the way
> out to the parking lot, you might add another 5 or 10 or 20.   But "no
> problem", that is just one night of glory...  maybe the 10 or 100 or 1000
> people infected and attending *only* "super-spread"  to 10x or 20x (there
> were only 6.xK so that caps it!) ...   but wait!  Do you (and all those you
> infect) go home and go back to Ro==1.33 behaviour, or are you all jacked up
> on Trump Fever and decide you will liberate yourself from that damned mask,
> and all that wussy "social distancing"?   So now your Ro is >1.33...
> conservatively those infected while wearing their red hat too tight might
> slip by with an Ro of 2.0....   and since you are too proud to spend time
> with LIbtards and Wussy Dems  ro^=2 becomes an R6 of 64.   Sounds like the
> perfect formula for a super-spreading event.   I'm guessing my estimates
> here are overdone or we will *patently* see  a Trump-Spike from Tulsa (do
> we even know how many attendees were from OK?).
>
> I understand that Trump2020 app records when it encounters a bluetooth
> beacon
> <https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/06/21/1004228/trumps-data-hungry-invasive-app-is-a-voter-surveillance-tool-of-extraordinary-scope/>
> (ostensibly only in Trump2020 yard signs?), maybe a white-hat hacker can
> hijack it to do peer-to-peer contact tracing to *demonstrate* this
> KevinBaconCovid19 effect?  Or maybe the TikTokkers have already hacked
> Trump2020App and are running around making Brad Parscale entirely
> misunderstand his demographic...   nothing like a little false-confidence
> to FFfff up a campaign (eh DNC 2016)?
>
> Of course, I could probably tell a similar story about BLM protestors
> (maybe even in Tulsa?)  but oddly most of them seem to be happy to wear
> masks and maintain some distance, even if they are shouting "I can't
> Breathe!" and "Say their names!" or "No Trump!  No KKK! No fascist USA!"
> at the top of their lungs,  They might just be *doubling* their Ro to 2.7
> and when they go home, they may well return to Ro=1.33 or better?
>
> Did anyone else watch the Series "Watchmen" last year (I'm re-watching it
> right now)...  Way too much premonition!  Feeds the conspiracy that COVID19
> and BLM protests are all a "Hollywood Elite" hoax.  "Robert Redford,
> President for Life!"
>
> - Steve
> Search Results
> Web resul
> On 6/28/20 4:08 PM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com wrote:
>
> I changed the name of this thread.  Having my name appear as a subject was
> beginning to make me feel like I died, or something.
>
>
>
> N
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On
> Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly
> *Sent:* Sunday, June 28, 2020 3:48 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> <friam at redfish.com> <friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Nick Thompson
>
>
>
> By the way, I just had a Zoom reunion with my fellow graduate students
> from Carnegie Mellon from the years 1967-1973 more or less.  I had
> forgotten that one of them had Covid-19.  Stu Card wrote a book with Allen
> Newell on human-computer interaction in which they develop a model of the
> human user.  Stu has recovered despite having an "underlying condition".
>
>
>
> Frank
>
>
>
> On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 3:12 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> They did not but I'm sure it's far smaller than 1/3.
>
>
>
> On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 2:08 PM Gary Schiltz <gary at naturesvisualarts.com>
> wrote:
>
> Interesting. I didn't see the show, but might watch it on their web site.
> Did they mention what proportion of white Americans know someone who has
> had Covid-19?
>
>
>
> On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 9:47 AM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> One third of all black Americans know a person who has had Covid-19.  So
> says CBS Sunday Morning.
>
>
>
> Frank
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++%0D%0A++++++++++++++++++++++++++++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++%0D%0A++++++++++++++++++++++++++++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
>
>
> On Sun, Jun 28, 2020, 4:18 AM David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu>
> wrote:
>
> I believe my brother has had it.
>
>
>
> When he is well enough to move around and not infect anybody else he
> intends to go get tested for antibodies.  Maybe another week.
>
>
>
> Said it was one of the three worst illnesses of his life so far, though it
> looks like mostly extreme fatigue and lassitude; not evident trouble
> breathing.  And he is 7 years younger than I am.
>
>
>
> Eric
>
>
>
>
>
> On Jun 28, 2020, at 1:23 AM, <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> <
> thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> David,
>
>
>
> nthompson at clarku.edu works just fine or ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com .
>
>
>
> I am really, REALLY  sorry but I don't think we should meet.  I just told
> my "pod" that I think that, with the rising cases in neighboring states,
> Santa Fe has started to get more dangerous again, and that we should we
> should be even more careful than we have been. (Rural Western Massachusetts
> got a lot of cases from "vacationing" New Yorkers in March.)   With talk of
> a vaccine by the beginning of next year, it just seems stupid to take any
> risks whatsoever.
>
>
>
> It's not that long.  In the meantime, let's continue to interact
> electronically.  We could do our own zoom session.  You will point out how
> "notional" the hazard is, and I will have to admit that I actually have no
> first-hand experience with the disease, what-so-ever.  I don't even know
> anybody, personally, who has told me that they *know anybody* who has had
> the disease.  It is still, for me, a media event.  A cultural meme.  Pray
> God it remains that way.
>
>
>
> So let's plan to meet "on the other side.".
>
>
>
> You take care!
>
>
>
> Nick
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,-pCBQAFqcrtIdWF_G2unIMdEIyxbk9ZKmcwsOxETxJjE11XZzzqAv0Ro6JftHecKItimIK0AxbipIn8IGm6WKzh4jdw9Ylo_3GMfBmVeWAG0Y-jh&typo=1>
>
>
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Prof David West
> Sent: Saturday, June 27, 2020 8:10 AM
> To: friam at redfish.com
> Subject: [FRIAM] Nick Thompson
>
>
>
> Nick,
>
>
>
> Your Earthlink email address (the only other one I have) bounced. I am in
> Santa Fe for a couple of days, until July 2.
>
>
>
> davew
>
>
>
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>
> --
>
> Frank Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz
> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz+%0D%0A++++++++++++++++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz+%0D%0A++++++++++++++++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
> 505 670-9918
>
>
>
>
> --
>
> Frank Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz
> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz+%0D%0A++++++++++++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz+%0D%0A++++++++++++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
> 505 670-9918
>
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-- 
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