[FRIAM] SIR+HD model in JavaScript + Herd Immunity question.

[cody dooderson]

I was just looking back for a previous conversation about herd immunity and
came across what seems to be an accurate prediction from Steve Smith.

My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this:   What if the Blue
> States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the battle in a few
> states like high-density, early onset new york/new jersey,  and reduce
> deaths (including ones avoidable if not for overwhelming health-care) but
> also reduce herd-immunity.  And the Red States limit their mitigation, take
> a huge hit in infection and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense
> states) but come out the other side with better herd-immunity.   I can
> imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state border crossing had
> a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red Staters infecting Blue States
> early on, then later vice-versa?
>

Cody Smith


On Sat, Apr 4, 2020 at 3:46 PM Steven A Smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:

> I'm sure many have seen this... if not scroll to the bottom for the JS
> model (you can download/inspect/modify the code if you like)...   It
> doesn't stop at SIR but adds H(ospitalization) and D(eath)...   and is
> parameterized with sliders.
>
>
> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html
> <https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html>
>
> And the JS (warning,huge with lots of device/browser-specific cruft):
>
>
> https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/03/16/opinion-coronavirus-model-2/d268775237c095931fe2fae6015c568c0011fd76/build/js/main.js
> <https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/03/16/opinion-coronavirus-model-2/d268775237c095931fe2fae6015c568c0011fd76/build/js/main.js>
>
> I don't feel comfortable having a strong opinion about this beyond echoing
> what THIS article says about the risk of quick mitigation followed by
> return-to-normal *without* establishing significant herd-immunity.   This
> author refers to it as "hiding infections in the future" and makes a good
> point about staving off infection too well for too long and getting hit
> hard next "cold and flu" season IF we haven't established good treatment,
> increased health care capacity, and/or effective vaccines.
>
>
> https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b
> <https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b>
>
> For better or worse, other countries are trying different mixtures and
> styles of mitigation and have different levels of health-care capacity and
> ability to location-track and shut down mobility.
>
> While many criticize (or defend) the lax or laggy response of many Red
> States, this provides yet another diversity/ensemble study for the ultimate
> "model" of all... in this case, the territory IS the territory, the
> population IS one big fat analog computer for calculating the pandemic (the
> answer to which, is naturally 42).
>
> Of course, "scofflaw" communities like the spring-break youth, the
> evangelical churches, and states like Georgia with governers who say "we
> didn't know that people without symptoms could be infectious until 24 hours
> ago!" represent a reservoir for exposure if they continue to mix, but might
> end up being a source of virus resistant.
>
>
> https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/04/coronavirus-state-social-distancing-policy/
>
>
> https://faculty.washington.edu/cadolph/papers/AABFW2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR09JwtQzEkerOGiRXxaiptbyDqGZZ7_7Ullg7UX9qtVDFWumdKZGF8WOzY
>
>
> My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this:   What if the
> Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the battle in a few
> states like high-density, early onset new york/new jersey,  and reduce
> deaths (including ones avoidable if not for overwhelming health-care) but
> also reduce herd-immunity.  And the Red States limit their mitigation, take
> a huge hit in infection and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense
> states) but come out the other side with better herd-immunity.   I can
> imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state border crossing had
> a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red Staters infecting Blue States
> early on, then later vice-versa?   Seems like the ongoing extraction
> economy in (mostly Red States) is pretty social-distancy while the more
> service economy of Blue States is at risk... though professional and even
> office work is nominally quite easily social-disanced.
>
> Mumble,
>
>  - Steve
>
>
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