[FRIAM] high turnout and tight races?
Frank Wimberly
wimberly3 at gmail.com
Wed Oct 28 20:17:06 EDT 2020
N = 3 is slightly better. But I don't have time or incentive to do a
detailed statistical analysis.
---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM
On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:14 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:
> In 1964 Johnson beat Goldwater by 60 to 40. The Kennedy/Nixon and
> Gore/Bush elections were extremely close. In all three elections the
> turnout was between 35 and 40 percent.
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:00 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> I'm saying that in this election there will be high turnout and not a
>> very close election.
>>
>> ---
>> Frank C. Wimberly
>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>
>> 505 670-9918
>> Santa Fe, NM
>>
>> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:59 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> So, what about the question I asked? You have no opinion on whether high
>>> turnout negatively or positively correlates with narrow victories?
>>>
>>>
>>> On 10/28/20 4:52 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
>>> > I predict that Biden will win by a large margin and that the outcome
>>> will be clear on election night notwithstanding any outstanding uncounted
>>> votes. Young people are voting in unprecedented numbers and are reportedly
>>> voting against Trump. Similarly the elderly, who favored Trump over
>>> Clinton by 10+ percentage points in 2016 are favoring Biden over Trump by a
>>> similar margin, according to polls.
>>> >
>>> > The good thing about predictions is that they can be evaluated
>>> perfectly after the events have happened.
>>> >
>>> > Frank
>>> >
>>> > ---
>>> > Frank C. Wimberly
>>> > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>>> > Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>> >
>>> > 505 670-9918
>>> > Santa Fe, NM
>>> >
>>> > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:20 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <gepropella at gmail.com <mailto:
>>> gepropella at gmail.com>> wrote:
>>> >
>>> > From:
>>> >
>>> > https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7
>>> <https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7>
>>> > "6. High turnout makes razor-thin victories, like the ones Trump
>>> notched in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, much less likely."
>>> >
>>> > Is that true? I've always heard that tight races lead to higher
>>> turnout, which would imply that high turnout would correlate WITH thin
>>> victories, not against them.
>>>
>>> --
>>> ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ
>>>
>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>>> FRIAM-COMIC <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/FRIAM-COMIC>
>>> http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>>>
>>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20201028/0f70c930/attachment.html>
More information about the Friam
mailing list