[FRIAM] high turnout and tight races?

[Frank Wimberly]

N = 3 is slightly better.  But I don't have time or incentive to do a
detailed statistical analysis.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:14 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:

> In 1964 Johnson beat Goldwater by 60 to 40.  The Kennedy/Nixon and
> Gore/Bush elections were extremely close.  In all three elections the
> turnout was between 35 and 40 percent.
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:00 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> I'm saying that in this election there will be high turnout and not a
>> very close election.
>>
>> ---
>> Frank C. Wimberly
>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>
>> 505 670-9918
>> Santa Fe, NM
>>
>> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:59 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> So, what about the question I asked? You have no opinion on whether high
>>> turnout negatively or positively correlates with narrow victories?
>>>
>>>
>>> On 10/28/20 4:52 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
>>> > I predict that Biden will win by a large margin and that the outcome
>>> will be clear on election night notwithstanding any outstanding uncounted
>>> votes.  Young people are voting in unprecedented numbers and are reportedly
>>> voting against Trump.  Similarly the elderly, who favored Trump over
>>> Clinton by 10+ percentage points in 2016 are favoring Biden over Trump by a
>>> similar margin, according to polls.
>>> >
>>> > The good thing about predictions is that they can be evaluated
>>> perfectly after the events have happened.
>>> >
>>> > Frank
>>> >
>>> > ---
>>> > Frank C. Wimberly
>>> > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>>> > Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>> >
>>> > 505 670-9918
>>> > Santa Fe, NM
>>> >
>>> > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:20 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <gepropella at gmail.com <mailto:
>>> gepropella at gmail.com>> wrote:
>>> >
>>> >     From:
>>> >
>>> >     https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7
>>> <https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7>
>>> >     "6. High turnout makes razor-thin victories, like the ones Trump
>>> notched in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, much less likely."
>>> >
>>> >     Is that true? I've always heard that tight races lead to higher
>>> turnout, which would imply that high turnout would correlate WITH thin
>>> victories, not against them.
>>>
>>> --
>>> ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ
>>>
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>>
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