[FRIAM] high turnout and tight races?

[Frank Wimberly]

In 1964 Johnson beat Goldwater by 60 to 40.  The Kennedy/Nixon and
Gore/Bush elections were extremely close.  In all three elections the
turnout was between 35 and 40 percent.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:00 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:

> I'm saying that in this election there will be high turnout and not a very
> close election.
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:59 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> So, what about the question I asked? You have no opinion on whether high
>> turnout negatively or positively correlates with narrow victories?
>>
>>
>> On 10/28/20 4:52 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
>> > I predict that Biden will win by a large margin and that the outcome
>> will be clear on election night notwithstanding any outstanding uncounted
>> votes.  Young people are voting in unprecedented numbers and are reportedly
>> voting against Trump.  Similarly the elderly, who favored Trump over
>> Clinton by 10+ percentage points in 2016 are favoring Biden over Trump by a
>> similar margin, according to polls.
>> >
>> > The good thing about predictions is that they can be evaluated
>> perfectly after the events have happened.
>> >
>> > Frank
>> >
>> > ---
>> > Frank C. Wimberly
>> > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>> > Santa Fe, NM 87505
>> >
>> > 505 670-9918
>> > Santa Fe, NM
>> >
>> > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:20 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <gepropella at gmail.com <mailto:
>> gepropella at gmail.com>> wrote:
>> >
>> >     From:
>> >
>> >     https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7
>> <https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7>
>> >     "6. High turnout makes razor-thin victories, like the ones Trump
>> notched in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, much less likely."
>> >
>> >     Is that true? I've always heard that tight races lead to higher
>> turnout, which would imply that high turnout would correlate WITH thin
>> victories, not against them.
>>
>> --
>> ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ
>>
>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>> FRIAM-COMIC <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/FRIAM-COMIC>
>> http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>>
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20201028/5b741a35/attachment.html>