[FRIAM] vax v unvax

Wed Aug 18 20:25:15 EDT 2021

So that's why I'm feeling uneasy as I approach 80.  😐

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, Aug 18, 2021, 5:38 PM David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu> wrote:

> May I offer a tiny rewording to one of your sentences, Roger?
>
> Given that right now I am in a months-long redraft of a paper, which feels
> like having my teeth drilled, trying to say some things about the
> difference between what one can do with summary statistics and what one
> does with population-wide regressions.  I am in a situation where I can’t
> use terms (this community doesn’t use them), can’t cite to where they are
> explained (not their literature; they will not go follow a cite), and can’t
> explain them in-line (too long; people don’t want to read all that).
> Complain complain complain.
>
> Interesting thing is that the particular “data” we are getting are, of
> course, summary statistics. So:
>
> You said:
>
> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data!
>
>
> How about:
>
> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the statistics!
>
>
> Eric
>
>
> On Aug 19, 2021, at 7:00 AM, Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org> wrote:
>
> The Israeli data turned up in Andrew Gelman's blog today
>
>
> https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/08/18/coronavirus-and-simpsons-paradox-oldsters-are-more-likely-to-be-vaccinated-and-more-likely-to-have-severe-infections-so-you-need-to-adjust-for-age-when-comparing-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-peopl/
>
> The argument broken out in his correspondent's blog:
>
>
> https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated
> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.covid-datascience.com%2fpost%2fisraeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated&c=E,1,r88QWsw9ZFie03L99WBI-GfoUio7QJL9q0f6LgfquHy6yusuS3afGu9rl-P2qKIe3neZBMCmbb-dV2vLzn84I9vqbj9PkeulwJ9dRSdlThEZ27Vn6yCOrCAc&typo=1>
>
> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data!
>
> Oh, and someone noticed that a lot of the unvaccinated can't afford to
> take two days off for vaccination side effects, no medical leave, you could
> try offering her 2 days and a few hours pay to get vaccinated.
>
> -- rec --
>
>
> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 4:58 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Another hypothesis is that they tend to be less engaged in the economy
>> and their communities and so are thus less susceptible; smaller social
>> networks and lower spatial density.  And further they attach themselves to
>> these crazy ideas because no one ever has the opportunity to push back
>> except people that go way out of their way like Glen.
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of David Eric Smith
>> Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2021 1:09 PM
>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com
>> >
>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] vax v unvax
>>
>> This is one that it would be nice to see broken down by age and other
>> conditions.
>>
>> If unvaxxed hospitalizations are a true “cross section of America” (like
>> jury duty), whereas the vaxxed ones are mainly old or sick with something
>> else, that would be an important variable for deriving a risk profile  by
>> category.
>>
>> Time, time, time, to chase things down….
>>
>> Eric
>>
>> > On Aug 19, 2021, at 4:53 AM, uǝlƃ ☤>$ <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
>> >
>> >
>> > Soooo ... our house cleaner is anti-vax. My friends tell me we should
>> fire her. I've resisted confronting her over it. But hospitals being
>> overrun influenced me to press her a little bit. I claimed that the
>> majority of hospitalizations are the unvaxxed. She claimed that down near
>> her (I think closer to Centralia, WA), it was flipped, that the majority of
>> hospitalizations were vaccinated. We had the usual conversation where she
>> ended with "you believe your data and I believe my data" blather. So I
>> decided to see if I could find news articles claiming the majority of
>> hospitalized covid cases are the vaccinated. And I found this:
>> >
>> > Higher Death, Hospitalization Rates Among Vaccinated Individuals: UK
>> > COVID-19 Data
>> > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co
>> > m%2f2021%2f07%2f04%2fdeaths-hospital-vaccinated-uk.html&c=E,1,S5wT7eG_
>> > LxnTLuUE1RbuVEziaTP99eeGAnZxv_dtTYhpTiIkicxQt2mvokLXVbixkXhDcXvoLjNg1n
>> > GUqSLe66RnTqmVs_5EGMgv3Z6cPUYQEg,,&typo=1
>> >
>> > Most COVID-19 Patients at Israel Hospital Fully Vaccinated, Doctor
>> Calls Mandates ‘Diabolic’
>> > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co
>> > m%2f2021%2f08%2f08%2fisrael-hospital-vaccinated.html&c=E,1,FDPrPMNiU5e
>> > 621cpzQhoViPiTlcpkww8iHTLVFR9vwhMrJ_5m1j77NIXnZYqEweYmhJcGmbR5PUWpuOvQ
>> > F1ZPV23_7Fw9AKvzzPGnjmS-w,,&typo=1
>> >
>> > They're both from the "Vision Times", which looks to me like a Falun
>> Gong outlet, popular with Trumpists, anti-CCP, etc. So, I don't really want
>> to do any debunking or verification. I *want* to write it off as garbage.
>> But their source:
>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fassets.publishing.service.gov.uk%2fgovernment%2fuploads%2fsystem%2fuploads%2fattachment_data%2ffile%2f1001359%2fVariants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf&c=E,1,Z0AX7_CvU6zmg1ca9s0IY3_E3dshyhV2o2XdB9IZiLRuF4FqVWdK_4ijYuyJIk-wyRPEoaaRJUlchbHLmor1XP3Y-0_ioCec73m-PpoXtafAhLUS702P8MUqhA,,&typo=1
>> seems legit. And the numbers in the article seem to match Table 4.
>> >
>> > Plugging in the numbers from the latest briefing:
>> > https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars
>> > -cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
>> >
>> > It really does seem to show that the death rate among vaxxed is higher
>> than that among unvaxxed.
>> >
>> > The LifeSiteNews site is obviously troll nonsense. But my concern is
>> mostly about that tech report from the UK and Herzog Hospital. Are these
>> counter examples to the NYT unvax/vax data? Are they small enough to be
>> within error?
>> >
>> > --
>> > ☤>$ uǝlƃ
>> >
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