[FRIAM] vax v unvax

Wed Aug 18 22:50:37 EDT 2021

Eric -

No problem with the modification, I was just making noise at that point:
death panels, statistical police, knowledge is oppression, and so on.

I see, Morris did exactly what you were suggesting and then went on to
itemize every quibble that might come up in the conclusion.

I might even remember Simpson's Paradox after this, at least for a few days.

-- rec --

-- rec --

On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 8:27 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:

> So that's why I'm feeling uneasy as I approach 80.  😐
>
>
>
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021, 5:38 PM David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu>
> wrote:
>
>> May I offer a tiny rewording to one of your sentences, Roger?
>>
>> Given that right now I am in a months-long redraft of a paper, which
>> feels like having my teeth drilled, trying to say some things about the
>> difference between what one can do with summary statistics and what one
>> does with population-wide regressions.  I am in a situation where I can’t
>> use terms (this community doesn’t use them), can’t cite to where they are
>> explained (not their literature; they will not go follow a cite), and can’t
>> explain them in-line (too long; people don’t want to read all that).
>> Complain complain complain.
>>
>> Interesting thing is that the particular “data” we are getting are, of
>> course, summary statistics. So:
>>
>> You said:
>>
>> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data!
>>
>>
>> How about:
>>
>> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the statistics!
>>
>>
>> Eric
>>
>>
>> On Aug 19, 2021, at 7:00 AM, Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org> wrote:
>>
>> The Israeli data turned up in Andrew Gelman's blog today
>>
>>
>> https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/08/18/coronavirus-and-simpsons-paradox-oldsters-are-more-likely-to-be-vaccinated-and-more-likely-to-have-severe-infections-so-you-need-to-adjust-for-age-when-comparing-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-peopl/
>>
>> The argument broken out in his correspondent's blog:
>>
>>
>> https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated
>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.covid-datascience.com%2fpost%2fisraeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated&c=E,1,r88QWsw9ZFie03L99WBI-GfoUio7QJL9q0f6LgfquHy6yusuS3afGu9rl-P2qKIe3neZBMCmbb-dV2vLzn84I9vqbj9PkeulwJ9dRSdlThEZ27Vn6yCOrCAc&typo=1>
>>
>> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data!
>>
>> Oh, and someone noticed that a lot of the unvaccinated can't afford to
>> take two days off for vaccination side effects, no medical leave, you could
>> try offering her 2 days and a few hours pay to get vaccinated.
>>
>> -- rec --
>>
>>
>> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 4:58 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Another hypothesis is that they tend to be less engaged in the economy
>>> and their communities and so are thus less susceptible; smaller social
>>> networks and lower spatial density.  And further they attach themselves to
>>> these crazy ideas because no one ever has the opportunity to push back
>>> except people that go way out of their way like Glen.
>>>
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of David Eric Smith
>>> Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2021 1:09 PM
>>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>>> friam at redfish.com>
>>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] vax v unvax
>>>
>>> This is one that it would be nice to see broken down by age and other
>>> conditions.
>>>
>>> If unvaxxed hospitalizations are a true “cross section of America” (like
>>> jury duty), whereas the vaxxed ones are mainly old or sick with something
>>> else, that would be an important variable for deriving a risk profile  by
>>> category.
>>>
>>> Time, time, time, to chase things down….
>>>
>>> Eric
>>>
>>> > On Aug 19, 2021, at 4:53 AM, uǝlƃ ☤>$ <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > Soooo ... our house cleaner is anti-vax. My friends tell me we should
>>> fire her. I've resisted confronting her over it. But hospitals being
>>> overrun influenced me to press her a little bit. I claimed that the
>>> majority of hospitalizations are the unvaxxed. She claimed that down near
>>> her (I think closer to Centralia, WA), it was flipped, that the majority of
>>> hospitalizations were vaccinated. We had the usual conversation where she
>>> ended with "you believe your data and I believe my data" blather. So I
>>> decided to see if I could find news articles claiming the majority of
>>> hospitalized covid cases are the vaccinated. And I found this:
>>> >
>>> > Higher Death, Hospitalization Rates Among Vaccinated Individuals: UK
>>> > COVID-19 Data
>>> > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co
>>> > m%2f2021%2f07%2f04%2fdeaths-hospital-vaccinated-uk.html&c=E,1,S5wT7eG_
>>> > LxnTLuUE1RbuVEziaTP99eeGAnZxv_dtTYhpTiIkicxQt2mvokLXVbixkXhDcXvoLjNg1n
>>> > GUqSLe66RnTqmVs_5EGMgv3Z6cPUYQEg,,&typo=1
>>> >
>>> > Most COVID-19 Patients at Israel Hospital Fully Vaccinated, Doctor
>>> Calls Mandates ‘Diabolic’
>>> > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co
>>> > m%2f2021%2f08%2f08%2fisrael-hospital-vaccinated.html&c=E,1,FDPrPMNiU5e
>>> > 621cpzQhoViPiTlcpkww8iHTLVFR9vwhMrJ_5m1j77NIXnZYqEweYmhJcGmbR5PUWpuOvQ
>>> > F1ZPV23_7Fw9AKvzzPGnjmS-w,,&typo=1
>>> >
>>> > They're both from the "Vision Times", which looks to me like a Falun
>>> Gong outlet, popular with Trumpists, anti-CCP, etc. So, I don't really want
>>> to do any debunking or verification. I *want* to write it off as garbage.
>>> But their source:
>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fassets.publishing.service.gov.uk%2fgovernment%2fuploads%2fsystem%2fuploads%2fattachment_data%2ffile%2f1001359%2fVariants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf&c=E,1,Z0AX7_CvU6zmg1ca9s0IY3_E3dshyhV2o2XdB9IZiLRuF4FqVWdK_4ijYuyJIk-wyRPEoaaRJUlchbHLmor1XP3Y-0_ioCec73m-PpoXtafAhLUS702P8MUqhA,,&typo=1
>>> seems legit. And the numbers in the article seem to match Table 4.
>>> >
>>> > Plugging in the numbers from the latest briefing:
>>> > https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars
>>> > -cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
>>> >
>>> > It really does seem to show that the death rate among vaxxed is higher
>>> than that among unvaxxed.
>>> >
>>> > The LifeSiteNews site is obviously troll nonsense. But my concern is
>>> mostly about that tech report from the UK and Herzog Hospital. Are these
>>> counter examples to the NYT unvax/vax data? Are they small enough to be
>>> within error?
>>> >
>>> > --
>>> > ☤>$ uǝlƃ
>>> >
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