[FRIAM] vax v unvax
Frank Wimberly
wimberly3 at gmail.com
Wed Aug 18 23:00:38 EDT 2021
Simpson's paradox: even though two variables might be correlated in
subgroups of a population they can be negatively correlated or uncorrelated
in the population.
---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM
On Wed, Aug 18, 2021, 8:51 PM Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org> wrote:
> Eric -
>
> No problem with the modification, I was just making noise at that point:
> death panels, statistical police, knowledge is oppression, and so on.
>
> I see, Morris did exactly what you were suggesting and then went on to
> itemize every quibble that might come up in the conclusion.
>
> I might even remember Simpson's Paradox after this, at least for a few
> days.
>
> -- rec --
>
> -- rec --
>
> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 8:27 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> So that's why I'm feeling uneasy as I approach 80. 😐
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> ---
>> Frank C. Wimberly
>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>
>> 505 670-9918
>> Santa Fe, NM
>>
>> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021, 5:38 PM David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> May I offer a tiny rewording to one of your sentences, Roger?
>>>
>>> Given that right now I am in a months-long redraft of a paper, which
>>> feels like having my teeth drilled, trying to say some things about the
>>> difference between what one can do with summary statistics and what one
>>> does with population-wide regressions. I am in a situation where I can’t
>>> use terms (this community doesn’t use them), can’t cite to where they are
>>> explained (not their literature; they will not go follow a cite), and can’t
>>> explain them in-line (too long; people don’t want to read all that).
>>> Complain complain complain.
>>>
>>> Interesting thing is that the particular “data” we are getting are, of
>>> course, summary statistics. So:
>>>
>>> You said:
>>>
>>> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data!
>>>
>>>
>>> How about:
>>>
>>> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the statistics!
>>>
>>>
>>> Eric
>>>
>>>
>>> On Aug 19, 2021, at 7:00 AM, Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org> wrote:
>>>
>>> The Israeli data turned up in Andrew Gelman's blog today
>>>
>>>
>>> https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/08/18/coronavirus-and-simpsons-paradox-oldsters-are-more-likely-to-be-vaccinated-and-more-likely-to-have-severe-infections-so-you-need-to-adjust-for-age-when-comparing-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-peopl/
>>>
>>> The argument broken out in his correspondent's blog:
>>>
>>>
>>> https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated
>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.covid-datascience.com%2fpost%2fisraeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated&c=E,1,r88QWsw9ZFie03L99WBI-GfoUio7QJL9q0f6LgfquHy6yusuS3afGu9rl-P2qKIe3neZBMCmbb-dV2vLzn84I9vqbj9PkeulwJ9dRSdlThEZ27Vn6yCOrCAc&typo=1>
>>>
>>> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data!
>>>
>>> Oh, and someone noticed that a lot of the unvaccinated can't afford to
>>> take two days off for vaccination side effects, no medical leave, you could
>>> try offering her 2 days and a few hours pay to get vaccinated.
>>>
>>> -- rec --
>>>
>>>
>>> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 4:58 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Another hypothesis is that they tend to be less engaged in the economy
>>>> and their communities and so are thus less susceptible; smaller social
>>>> networks and lower spatial density. And further they attach themselves to
>>>> these crazy ideas because no one ever has the opportunity to push back
>>>> except people that go way out of their way like Glen.
>>>>
>>>> -----Original Message-----
>>>> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of David Eric Smith
>>>> Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2021 1:09 PM
>>>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>>>> friam at redfish.com>
>>>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] vax v unvax
>>>>
>>>> This is one that it would be nice to see broken down by age and other
>>>> conditions.
>>>>
>>>> If unvaxxed hospitalizations are a true “cross section of America”
>>>> (like jury duty), whereas the vaxxed ones are mainly old or sick with
>>>> something else, that would be an important variable for deriving a risk
>>>> profile by category.
>>>>
>>>> Time, time, time, to chase things down….
>>>>
>>>> Eric
>>>>
>>>> > On Aug 19, 2021, at 4:53 AM, uǝlƃ ☤>$ <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>> > Soooo ... our house cleaner is anti-vax. My friends tell me we should
>>>> fire her. I've resisted confronting her over it. But hospitals being
>>>> overrun influenced me to press her a little bit. I claimed that the
>>>> majority of hospitalizations are the unvaxxed. She claimed that down near
>>>> her (I think closer to Centralia, WA), it was flipped, that the majority of
>>>> hospitalizations were vaccinated. We had the usual conversation where she
>>>> ended with "you believe your data and I believe my data" blather. So I
>>>> decided to see if I could find news articles claiming the majority of
>>>> hospitalized covid cases are the vaccinated. And I found this:
>>>> >
>>>> > Higher Death, Hospitalization Rates Among Vaccinated Individuals: UK
>>>> > COVID-19 Data
>>>> >
>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co
>>>> > m%2f2021%2f07%2f04%2fdeaths-hospital-vaccinated-uk.html&c=E,1,S5wT7eG_
>>>> > LxnTLuUE1RbuVEziaTP99eeGAnZxv_dtTYhpTiIkicxQt2mvokLXVbixkXhDcXvoLjNg1n
>>>> > GUqSLe66RnTqmVs_5EGMgv3Z6cPUYQEg,,&typo=1
>>>> >
>>>> > Most COVID-19 Patients at Israel Hospital Fully Vaccinated, Doctor
>>>> Calls Mandates ‘Diabolic’
>>>> >
>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co
>>>> > m%2f2021%2f08%2f08%2fisrael-hospital-vaccinated.html&c=E,1,FDPrPMNiU5e
>>>> > 621cpzQhoViPiTlcpkww8iHTLVFR9vwhMrJ_5m1j77NIXnZYqEweYmhJcGmbR5PUWpuOvQ
>>>> > F1ZPV23_7Fw9AKvzzPGnjmS-w,,&typo=1
>>>> >
>>>> > They're both from the "Vision Times", which looks to me like a Falun
>>>> Gong outlet, popular with Trumpists, anti-CCP, etc. So, I don't really want
>>>> to do any debunking or verification. I *want* to write it off as garbage.
>>>> But their source:
>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fassets.publishing.service.gov.uk%2fgovernment%2fuploads%2fsystem%2fuploads%2fattachment_data%2ffile%2f1001359%2fVariants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf&c=E,1,Z0AX7_CvU6zmg1ca9s0IY3_E3dshyhV2o2XdB9IZiLRuF4FqVWdK_4ijYuyJIk-wyRPEoaaRJUlchbHLmor1XP3Y-0_ioCec73m-PpoXtafAhLUS702P8MUqhA,,&typo=1
>>>> seems legit. And the numbers in the article seem to match Table 4.
>>>> >
>>>> > Plugging in the numbers from the latest briefing:
>>>> >
>>>> https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars
>>>> > -cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
>>>> >
>>>> > It really does seem to show that the death rate among vaxxed is
>>>> higher than that among unvaxxed.
>>>> >
>>>> > The LifeSiteNews site is obviously troll nonsense. But my concern is
>>>> mostly about that tech report from the UK and Herzog Hospital. Are these
>>>> counter examples to the NYT unvax/vax data? Are they small enough to be
>>>> within error?
>>>> >
>>>> > --
>>>> > ☤>$ uǝlƃ
>>>> >
>>>> > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
>>>> > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn
>>>> > GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,fqQLi64iLssMYVmLhhr5W8t0KdMj_LE-IXRGm1vT8wMK2gPQywI6g3jvt0TsGwGqKRw2xXOg23Kouyrwk3s4pQeq7aJKphQnq4nB-Bu-GNStrNrMtw,,&typo=1>
>>>> un/subscribe
>>>> >
>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailm
>>>> > an%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com
>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2f2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,MKGWfqQ2Rq5b4hn9iSRvaahs4WgjbW9jAOdeU4ZqoXzT9toPBd-7CCO4Ts4HQA671NbIIzIkOILwQx2tI_FgCroihk_CnjcQHa4fNIGzmgDIVm5fvekhsNfMgKnJ&typo=1>
>>>> &c=E,1,5m3q9gwLjB5XgPfPMCUS8tSOyRmgs8
>>>> > oigic3gckRviSyeVj6o_a-VaEwwwPhcJt7wS65-CWA2pK-6wFh36mmNd1jOvXxdQYJTlzg
>>>> > ky_HdveQg2ry8kGqzQ,,&typo=1 FRIAM-COMIC
>>>> >
>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspo
>>>> > t.com
>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ft.com&c=E,1,-7XZAMRZP6TA8dSxx_53ATuhaKiiofnaexLhMNZ74_ziSZfpFtS3N_L93yVoiW9xuICVr2DylBCCoHCtdKgUwMx7Ht-W9A4Q0-4GYJ6oO7X41yHzWBVf3ujc-1w,&typo=1>
>>>> %2f&c=E,1,g2WREPPELfNBefvRDG6LLsnR1UKZKBLNBalnm3PnxQvK_DKQefTBvLl
>>>> > Zy9Ci6bQW70bCMXoDcDNcdxjOxvGNQiXt9fPCIhZ6E-r5HJQdjHEGI71jMQ,,&typo=1
>>>> > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,U5kTUt08kTFVFr_888krkhUOcdy-42InyaM9C85ohWzrIXEid56y63LZjtetYNvmhAm6NuUlEDq_i_9CQVEIv6WfSFf0XHzYusFI9lGg-Wzk-S4CnUo,&typo=1>
>>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,_MvX6cZ971lVWmf_de9GgiJAFkDss-FARY-tj1cUg5IgW3Lr5tGMlbTK602JPW7veof2cHnTK7rbZsSrfcAngBcoYxYgozpm_WnA0fSpLbrGgt7L&typo=1>
>>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,x51SIhs6yOhLAlN0oCuiZtxyx-zhAy2UJ5D1j024NXZS4gRqLlh8K40ROmgX2llQOaQkAGHT6X2iJmQn8ETSnhgE7PGRZtDth_pWgRgfT0YjZA4qJunvWrA,&typo=1>
>>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,uyl0FI_o7_e9Ju7j_8fD9os9U9paR5bSSm63hmZe73ZVJdCLTheSxmXLnLsTgxU107cQyt36h7BhL39_4xX1xo-BoxSda0gDezCq5FD2o7I9LcctiOHH0w,,&typo=1>
>>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,HWeRupD9_Ml0WZpZw9-2f6n1_EJa35yT6Q5iwHXL08RmdHQIrVQMY_nqSLH7feeRgeTiCf2uNzu-RowMcjBWtSq8wn7dbkTb_ZsSsqgW&typo=1>
>>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,R4_BP72WMF0a2IUAK0ZAkYXdpkJkbU5P7LEet-BiTPNGJdcHFryn2JrmsuI9mo5MfJxSMJLS1SNspeiuhuVsNpo8gve8sTc6lX7Nz4d-LvUob8PO2_E,&typo=1>
>>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>>>>
>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
>>> un/subscribe
>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,w-EqIn_ZNn9-26Q4yHRetL2lNbh91wH0BKI2YaaVBduUP7nWJ0zPpQ7BPVXEC6aXwtbZxx5IrPlIghnt5u2U9cTZdp3kgXIPjTGwCraw&typo=1
>>> FRIAM-COMIC
>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,vu1KvMoJoBKEg8Oz03u4RRIbFfTls7eBtSCyOWq15FSEJeEVMSr_NmB67amb3wgexA9iyGry_EPje0JS097nxVbyjJLBCGiC1KbG0gbilO8,&typo=1
>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>>>
>>>
>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>>>
>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>>
> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20210818/2e4f6736/attachment-0001.html>
More information about the Friam
mailing list