[FRIAM] Screening off

[Nicholas Thompson]

Frank,

Still need help. Given events 1, 2, and 3, 3 has been screen off by 2 from
1, if  the probability that 3 occurs given that 2 has occurred is equal to
the probability that 3 occurs given that both 2 and one have occurred.
 As I understand mathematics this equality requires that the probability of
1 occurring is 1.00.  Another way to say that is that the probability that
3 occurs  if 2 has occurred is the same as the probability that 3 has
occurred if 2 has occurred, and 1 has already occurred.  What's the fun in
that?  In other words, given the possibility of other causes for 2, the
fact that 2 occurs gives us relatively little evidence that 1 has
occurred.  Isn"t this true of all causal abduction?

N
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