[FRIAM] Dear Long Suffering Colleagues
Frank Wimberly
wimberly3 at gmail.com
Mon Dec 20 08:41:20 EST 2021
I'll put it in my terms which will reduce the chances of my making an
error. If A and B are both causes of C then A is not independent of B
given C. C is a collider.
---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM
On Sun, Dec 19, 2021, 11:09 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
> *Yes! Right! Thankyou! *
>
> That is now obvious to you because you know that stuff. But for three
> weeks it has been driving me crazy.
>
>
>
> Now for the second point.
>
>
>
>
> E1 and E2, each causally contribute to a behavior, B. In this case, postulating
>
> an inner state, I, that is caused by both E1 and E2, and which causes I,
> affects
>
>
> one's predictions concerning the relationship between environment and behavior.
>
>
>
> This is from the abstract of the article. Not only do we see the same
> slip-up with respect to I (I IS after all, the inner state), but we see
> also that the abstract entertains an article about causal convergence
> (“collision”), not causal forks. Yet every where else, in the title, or in
> the body, the article seems to be talking about forks. Even with my weak
> knowledge of formal logic and probability, I can see that that would make a
> huge difference. Can you confirm also that that is a cockup, so I don’t
> spend another month trying to make it make sense?
>
>
>
> Thanks,
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nick Thompson
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly
> *Sent:* Sunday, December 19, 2021 10:35 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Dear Long Suffering Colleagues
>
>
>
> "I screens of S from I" doesn't make sense. Must be a typo.
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
>
>
> On Sun, Dec 19, 2021, 9:24 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Sorry, Frank. I don’t mean to be standoffish. I have yet to be that
> close to a non family member (as we would have to be, going line by line
> over a text.
>
>
>
> Are you sure you read the two first passages TOGETHER. Notice where the
> I’s appear in the first and where they appear in the second.
>
>
>
> The family is throwing caution to the wind over the next two weeks so by
> mid January I will either be dead or psychologically immunized. But I hope
> I will have gotten this thing written by then.
>
>
>
> N
>
>
>
> Nick Thompson
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly
> *Sent:* Sunday, December 19, 2021 5:25 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Dear Long Suffering Colleagues
>
>
>
> Sober is correct. I wish you would accept my offer to explain this to you
> face to face with paper and pencil.
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
>
>
> On Sun, Dec 19, 2021, 4:20 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> Here, once again, is the infamous Sober article. I know. Half of you
> want to throw me off FRIAM for being so ignorant as to give my time to it,
> while the other half want to throw me off FRIAM for being so ignorant as to
> find fault with it. I confess that both of these could be true.
>
>
>
> It all revolves the consequences of “screening off” and it’s possible
> relations to the claims of behaviorism.
>
>
>
> First I want to point out what I have now come to believe are devastating
> typos, typos which those of you who have already read the text for me might
> not have noticed because you knew what the passages SHOULD say, and so read
> right over what they actually said For me, with my very limited gasp of
> probability inference, was completely knocked flat by them and only quite
> recently come to believe that they are typos.
>
> For example, if a stimulus S raises the probability of inner state I,
>
> and I raises the probability of response R, then S raises the probability R, provided
>
> that I screens-off S from I. Screening-off means that
>
>
>
>
>
> Pr(R at t1 | I at t2 ) = Pr(R at t1 | I at t2 & S at t1 ).
>
>
>
>
>
> Note that the two passages contradict one another. I would simply
> disregard the first passage if it weren’t repeated in the document’s
> abstract:
>
>
>
>
>
>
> E1 and E2, each causally contribute to a behavior, B. In this case, postulating
>
>
> an inner state, I, that is caused by both E1 and E2, and which causes I, affects
>
>
> one's predictions concerning the relationship between environment and behavior.
>
>
>
>
>
> Notice also, that this exposition in the abstract contemplates a causal
> collision, where the burden of the article concerns causal forks.
>
>
>
> I have struggled to come up with a verbal account of “screening off” which
> is acceptable to either of my critiques. Here is another,
>
>
>
> Screening off means, where AèBèC, A has no effect on C other than its
> effect via B
>
>
>
> Could somebody settle the typo issue for me.
>
>
>
> I will stop for now.
>
>
>
> n
>
> Nick Thompson
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
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