[FRIAM] lurking

Mon Nov 8 11:42:51 EST 2021

You would be surprised at what casinos can ban. Maybe even more surprised at the, not necessarily AI, software tools they use to analyze video feeds and pounce on any kind of statistically improbabilities. Most casinos in Vegas have tools, like mandatory side bets with very low odds, that erase the near equal odds of blackjack.

The only 'safe' gambling is poker where the house has no direct interest in the outcome.

As DES stated, winning is a matter of patience and losing antes only, until you get good hand and then skill of playing that hand for maximum return — playing less worse than the others at the table.

I am living in Vegas now and playing small tournaments fairly regularly.

davew

On Sun, Nov 7, 2021, at 7:23 PM, Steve Smith wrote:
> 
> 
> On 11/7/21 12:02 PM, David Eric Smith wrote:
>> There must be some kind of “Back to the future” movie that can be made out of this.  Doyne Farmer in Vegas all over again, but with current-era AI in place of toe-operated computers.  
> Yah!  Surely Casinos can't begin to restrict computers(phones)/earbuds, etc.  on the gaming floor.
> 
> Strange coincidence that my sister went to Kindergarten with Vance Packard (Norm's brother) in Silver City long before they all became eagle scouts and then the Chaos Cabal.  We moved away the next year and I doubt I ever met any of them back then.   I came to LANL just before (I think) Doyne came... I seem to remember that Norm was there for a summer...  and soon came the (in)famous CA conference...   As I remember it the game of interest (aside from Life, what with Conway in attendance) was GO with a lot of speculation about the implications of local vs global "intelligence"...   I was intrigued by HashLife and it's implications for finding structure at many scales... I still hope for someone with more follow-through than I have to implement a more redundant but "thorough" space-time decomposition (an N-1xN-1 kernel over the 4 positions at each "zoom" level).
> 
> Regarding poker.. I played some low-stakes in college and saw there were two things to take in:   the main technical skill was to simply play less poorly than the other players at the table and that was entirely overshadowed by the social-engineering games of bluffing, etc.   The very simple game-theoretic aspect of not depleting your own stake before you catch a "lucky streak" going your way was also a good understanding.   I played with my "boss" and a number of peers at the time and realized that it was more about jockeying for position at work and drinking beer than it was about winning/losing.  I think the most I ever lost/won was on the order of $20-$40 which in those days was roughly 1-2 shifts wages... a LOT if I joined them weekly... too rich for my blood!  I still feel that *technically* playing well really means just playing less badly.   Blackjack being even more obviously so?
> 
>> 
>> Yikes.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>>> On Nov 7, 2021, at 1:56 PM, Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:
>>> 
>>> My inclination would be to invest in standoff biometrics (e.g. Eulerian Video Amplification) and then find the best poker playing code.   It ought to be possible to automate and perhaps get rich in the process.
>>>  
>>> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Eric Charles
>>> *Sent:* Sunday, November 7, 2021 7:42 AM
>>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
>>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] lurking
>>>  
>>> I DID read all the thread so far... but I'm curious how we got to one of the starting points: "as cringy as it may be for some dork to be proud of their Poker prowess" 
>>>  
>>> I am somewhat satisfied with my Poker mediocrity, certainly not proud of it... but if I met someone who was ACTUALLY startlingly better than I am, and they were proud of that, I wouldn't find it cringy. (Ditto in my other hobbies, like Aikido.)
>>>  
>>> I guess if I met someone who had a slight edge in their drunk-buddy home games, and they were super proud of THAT, then i would find it cringy. (Ditto someone who's the best Aikido student in their small dojo, but who's obviously not more than that.) 
>>>  
>>> When I see academic work on game theory, it's usually of lower quality than what the good poker players are doing these days. Mastering the game is crazy hard, and being able to sit down and implement a coherent and winning strategy for 40-80 hours a week is not easy. So... why would that be cringe? 
>>>  
>>>  
>>>  
>>> On Wed, Nov 3, 2021 at 1:42 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:
>>>> Ok, part of the story is knowing what is really needed for reproducibility as a function of context.
>>>> With that, then there's the matter of how much control is afforded.   Is it programmable in predictable ways?
>>>> 
>>>> -----Original Message-----
>>>> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of u?l? ?>$
>>>> Sent: Wednesday, November 3, 2021 8:20 AM
>>>> To: friam at redfish.com
>>>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] lurking
>>>> 
>>>> Yeah, I agree. But context is Queen. When the virus is created in the lab, it's done with real stuff distilled from the soupy world. Given enough of a difference in context, the robot may not be able to re-constitute the life because the soupy world surrounding the robot doesn't have the real stuff required. Such drastic context changes could be a result of translation through space or time. E.g. trying to construct, on Mars, an organism read/serialized on earth. Or e.g. trying to construct an organism read millennia ago, millennia in the future. It's naive to talk about "science" as if any given read-out formula thereby expressed is *complete*. Science is abstraction to a large extent ... maybe not as abstracting as math, of course. And science must remain "open" precisely because any formula it expresses is suspect, perhaps incomplete.
>>>> 
>>>> My favorite example is the magic brewing stick: https://medievalmeadandbeer.wordpress.com/2019/05/04/scandinavian-yeast-logs-yeast-rings/ It *was* scientific to lay out the magic stick as a critical element of the brewing process, only to discover later that the stick isn't the important part.
>>>> 
>>>> On 11/2/21 2:39 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>>>> > Even if that were so, viruses have been pulled from history or tweaked and created in the lab.   So we have a design specification, and the means to make it.    One could imagine a robot fabricating the close-to-the-metal machine too.   There is a story one can write down how it is done.   If there is no story, it is not science we are talking about, it is something else.  
>>>> 
>>>> 
>>>> -- 
>>>> "Better to be slapped with the truth than kissed with a lie."
>>>> ☤>$ uǝlƃ
>>>> 
>>>> 
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