[FRIAM] Modeling Fascism

[Jochen Fromm]

Lundberg and Lee proposed to use Shapley values as a general method to explain all kinds of machine learning models. As I understand it this works by varying input values systematically and then observing how much the model output changes. https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.07874v2It is one of the most common methods used today to explain neural networks. Here is a recent paper from researchers at MIT and Microsoft Research about the topic:https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.14403The training set in my case was just an Excel/CSV file where I estimated the feature values myself. This means I have asked myself for reach country and each feature which value would describe the situation best on a scale from -1 to 1.I think it is an interesting approach. Maybe I can improve the data or the model a bit and make a blog post out of it.-J.
-------- Original message --------From: Steve Smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> Date: 7/15/22  10:29 PM  (GMT+01:00) To: friam at redfish.com Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Modeling Fascism 
    for those of us trying to suss out the implications of this, I
      offer:
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shapley_value
    I'm not clear on a number of things Jochen:
    
      The Shapley values implies an iterated/cooperative model?
      I see how the "training set" from post WWI Europe might be
        used in this context.
      How do your assumptions about Trump-era America fit in?  
      
      
        Is the assumption that post WWI (hidden) conditions in
          Europe are similar enough to contemporary Global conditions?
      
    
    I'm probably missing something (a lot)?
    - Steve
    
    On 7/15/22 2:06 PM, Jochen Fromm wrote:
    
    
      
      Today after work I've tried to built a small and
        simple machine learning model to predict fascism, based on 6 or
        7 fundamental features. Using Shapley values we can see which
        feature contributes the most to the outbreak of fascism. If I
        enter values which fit to the US under Trump the model indeed
        predicts a form of authoritarianism.
      
      
      No big data or deep learning, just a small neural
        network based on scikit-learn (no Tensorflow, Keras, or
        Pytorch). Juypter notebook here:
      https://nbviewer.org/github/JochenFromm/JupyterNotebooks/blob/master/ModelingFascism.ipynb
      
      
      -J.
      
      
      
      
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