[FRIAM] Modeling Fascism
Marcus Daniels
marcus at snoutfarm.com
Sat Jul 16 16:09:19 EDT 2022
You might try recursive partitioning for a directly interpretable model. Extreme gradient boosting is state-of-the-art but will be more steps to harder to interpret, like here, with the neural net.
Sent from my iPhone
On Jul 16, 2022, at 12:46 PM, Jochen Fromm <jofr at cas-group.net> wrote:
It is the first time I am using the SHAP package and I am not completely sure how to interpret the result
https://shap.readthedocs.io/en/latest/index.html
I would say humiliation is definitely an essential factor. In Germany before the emergence of Nazism there was for instance a feeling of national humiliation after the loss of WW I and the Treaty of Versailles. Robert Paxton also mentions it in his book about the anatomy of fascism.
-J.
-------- Original message --------
From: Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com>
Date: 7/15/22 11:57 PM (GMT+01:00)
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Modeling Fascism
Humiliation is not predictive of fascism, am I reading that right?
From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Steve Smith
Sent: Friday, July 15, 2022 1:29 PM
To: friam at redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Modeling Fascism
for those of us trying to suss out the implications of this, I offer:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shapley_value
I'm not clear on a number of things Jochen:
1. The Shapley values implies an iterated/cooperative model?
2. I see how the "training set" from post WWI Europe might be used in this context.
3. How do your assumptions about Trump-era America fit in?
* Is the assumption that post WWI (hidden) conditions in Europe are similar enough to contemporary Global conditions?
I'm probably missing something (a lot)?
- Steve
On 7/15/22 2:06 PM, Jochen Fromm wrote:
Today after work I've tried to built a small and simple machine learning model to predict fascism, based on 6 or 7 fundamental features. Using Shapley values we can see which feature contributes the most to the outbreak of fascism. If I enter values which fit to the US under Trump the model indeed predicts a form of authoritarianism.
No big data or deep learning, just a small neural network based on scikit-learn (no Tensorflow, Keras, or Pytorch). Juypter notebook here:
https://nbviewer.org/github/JochenFromm/JupyterNotebooks/blob/master/ModelingFascism.ipynb
-J.
-. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom https://bit.ly/virtualfriam
to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
archives: 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/
1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
-. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom https://bit.ly/virtualfriam
to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
archives: 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/
1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20220716/94997dad/attachment.html>
More information about the Friam
mailing list