[FRIAM] Modeling Fascism

[Jochen Fromm]

It is the first time I am using the SHAP package and I am not completely sure how to interpret the resulthttps://shap.readthedocs.io/en/latest/index.htmlI would say humiliation is definitely an essential factor. In Germany before the emergence of Nazism there was for instance a feeling of national humiliation after the loss of WW I and the Treaty of Versailles. Robert Paxton also mentions it in his book about the anatomy of fascism.-J.
-------- Original message --------From: Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> Date: 7/15/22  11:57 PM  (GMT+01:00) To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Modeling Fascism 

Humiliation is not predictive of fascism, am I reading that right?
 


From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of
Steve Smith
Sent: Friday, July 15, 2022 1:29 PM
To: friam at redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Modeling Fascism


 
for those of us trying to suss out the implications of this, I offer:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shapley_value
I'm not clear on a number of things Jochen:


The Shapley values implies an iterated/cooperative model?
I see how the "training set" from post WWI Europe might be used in this context.
How do your assumptions about Trump-era America fit in?  

Is the assumption that post WWI (hidden) conditions in Europe are similar enough to contemporary Global conditions?

I'm probably missing something (a lot)?
- Steve

On 7/15/22 2:06 PM, Jochen Fromm wrote:



Today after work I've tried to built a small and simple machine learning model to predict fascism, based on 6 or 7 fundamental features. Using Shapley values we can see which feature contributes the most to the outbreak of fascism. If I
 enter values which fit to the US under Trump the model indeed predicts a form of authoritarianism.


 


No big data or deep learning, just a small neural network based on scikit-learn (no Tensorflow, Keras, or Pytorch). Juypter notebook here:


https://nbviewer.org/github/JochenFromm/JupyterNotebooks/blob/master/ModelingFascism.ipynb


 


-J.


 




-. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe   /   Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom https://bit.ly/virtualfriam
to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
archives:  5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/
  1/2003 thru 6/2021  http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/




-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20220716/90090474/attachment.html>