[FRIAM] AI Musings
Steve Smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Sat Apr 1 15:09:32 EDT 2023
It sounds like "the Adjacent Possible" just ain't possible* in AI
land? With the punchline "you just can't get there from here"?
So what is the graph geodesic distance across the adjacent possible
between "today" and Kurzweil's /singularity/? And is the topology of
"the Singularity" a fully connected graph in the AP with a max distance
of 1? All things are (equally) possible? Like the graph-theoretic
equivalent of a black hole? Thus /singularity/? /Everything, Everywhere,
All at Once /? Sounds like the "entropy death" of the multiverse?
Or is the conceit that there is a practical limit to human's ability to
"keep up" and we are simply "overcome by events" while the *universe*
continues to be roughly as complex as ever, just with human's complexity
overshadowed/outstripped by that of machine intelligence? WE Be
Deprecated?
On 4/1/23 8:29 AM, Roger Critchlow wrote:
> I think that it depends on having a board of directors/private owner
> prepared to take their hands off the wheel.
>
> The main problem would be trolls attempting adversarial prompts.
> However comfortable you might get with the ai's ability to handle the
> day to day affairs, would you ever feel safe from some ai whisperer
> persuading it to give everything away and become a yogi? I suppose
> you have the same problem with meat C-suite officers, too.
>
> I tried to get Bard to talk with me about the adjacent possible (AP)
> the other day. It agreed that the AP could not be represented as a
> mathematical set, but it continued to talk about the AP as if it were
> a set. So it suggested formulating the AP as a graph, or a tree, or
> as the states of a dynamical system. I pushed for a non-set formalism
> and it gave me fuzzy sets. I guess I have to try harder.
>
> -- rec --
>
> On Sat, Apr 1, 2023 at 8:05 AM Grant Holland
> <grant.holland.sf at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Good point, Cody!
>
>> On Mar 31, 2023, at 9:16 PM, cody dooderson <d00d3rs0n at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>> While I think that AI could soon handle the managerial part of a
>> CEO's job, they may have trouble playing golf. It might not
>> matter if the stock is going up.
>> I am very ignorant about what CEO's do 'though.
>>
>> On Fri, Mar 31, 2023, 5:33 PM Grant Holland
>> <grant.holland.sf at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> So what do you think? Are CEOs, CFOs etc. and corporate board
>> members at any medium or short-term risk of losing their jobs
>> to machine learning? I like to hear some opinions on this.
>>
>> Thx,
>> Grant
>>
>> > On Mar 31, 2023, at 1:21 PM, Gary Schiltz
>> <gary at naturesvisualarts.com> wrote:
>> >
>> > Arrrr... looking more closely, Grant wrote CxO not QxO.
>> Google quickly
>> > enlightened me on the former. Sorry for the noise.
>> >
>> > On Fri, Mar 31, 2023 at 2:19 PM Gary Schiltz
>> <gary at naturesvisualarts.com> wrote:
>> >>
>> >> I must admit my ignorance here, not aided in the least by
>> a cursory
>> >> Google search: What is QxO?
>> >>
>> >> On Thu, Mar 30, 2023 at 10:59 AM Grant Holland
>> >> <grant.holland.sf at gmail.com> wrote:
>> >>>
>> >>> Frank,
>> >>>
>> >>> I'm wondering why no-one seems to raise the specter that
>> AI could start replacing management personnel. And I’m
>> including CxO’s here; because I’m not convinced that CxO-ing
>> is rocket science or quantum mechanics. Think of the billions
>> saved. After all, if machine learning cannot get good at
>> making better decisions than humans, and constantly improving
>> at it, I would be very surprised.
>> >>>
>> >>> Grant
>> >>>
>> >>> On Mar 30, 2023, at 8:58 AM, Frank Wimberly
>> <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:
>> >>>
>> >>> Not particularly relevant to your main point but Raj
>> Reddy, close colleague of Newell and Simon, once said, "It is
>> easier use AI to replace a college professor than a bulldozer
>> operator" or words tho that effect.
>> >>>
>> >>> Frank
>> >>>
>> >>> ---
>> >>> Frank C. Wimberly
>> >>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>> >>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>> >>>
>> >>> 505 670-9918
>> >>> Santa Fe, NM
>> >>>
>> >>> On Thu, Mar 30, 2023, 8:50 AM Prof David West
>> <profwest at fastmail.fm> wrote:
>> >>>>
>> >>>> The "AI Pause" made national TV news yesterday (long
>> after those on this list noted and reacted to it) and that
>> made me revisit a theme I have thought about since Newell,
>> Simon, and Shaw created Logic Theorist.
>> >>>>
>> >>>> Advocates take a caricature (perhaps too strong a word)
>> of human intelligence, write a program to emulate it and
>> declare the program "intelligent."
>> >>>>
>> >>>> The original conceit: true intelligence was the kind of
>> thinking exhibited by college professors and scientists.
>> Almost trivial to emulate (Newell and Simon programmed Logic
>> Theorist on 3x5 cards before Shaw was able to implement on a
>> computer).
>> >>>>
>> >>>> Maybe reading—correctly converting text to sound, like a
>> child—was more indicative of human intelligence, and
>> Sejnowski created NetTalk. that, somewhat eerily, produced
>> discoveries of sounds, and errors, and achieved near perfect
>> ability to "read." Listen to the tapes sometime and contrast
>> them with tapes of a human child learning to read. Of course,
>> comprehension of what was read did not make the cut.
>> >>>>
>> >>>> State of the art improved dramatically and the
>> caricatures of human intelligence are more sophisticated and
>> the achievements of the programs more interesting.
>> >>>>
>> >>>> But, it seems to me there is still a critical gap. We
>> can program an AI (or let one learn) to fly a commercial jet
>> as well or better than a human pilot—BUT, could even the best
>> of of breed of such an AI pull a Shullenberger and land on
>> the Hudson River?
>> >>>>
>> >>>> Another factor behind the "hysteria" (sorry for the
>> sexism) over AIs causing massive unemployment is a corollary
>> to the caricaturization of human intelligence. Since the
>> Industrial Revolution, and certainly since the age of
>> Taylorism and the rise of automation; work itself has been
>> dehumanizing.
>> >>>>
>> >>>> If you define human work in terms of what can be done by
>> a computer then it is tautological to claim an AI is
>> intelligent because it can perform human work.
>> >>>>
>> >>>> I was contemplating ChatAIs and quickly realized that my
>> profession—college professor—was one at immense risk of
>> replacement. I would bet good money that a ChatAI could
>> produce, and maybe deliver, lectures far better than any I
>> created in 30 years teaching. And probably most, if not all,
>> of the presentations I made at professional conferences over
>> the years.
>> >>>>
>> >>>> I am still vain enough to think that some of the papers
>> and books I have written are beyond an AI, and certain that
>> no AI could do as well in spontaneious Q&A after a
>> presentation than I.
>> >>>>
>> >>>> Bottom line, I still believe that AI can and does equate
>> to HI, only when some aspect of HI is ommitted from the
>> equation. This is not essentialism, but analogous to the
>> digitization of a sine wave, no matter the finite sampling
>> rate, there is always some missing information.
>> >>>>
>> >>>> davew
>> >>>>
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