[FRIAM] Breaking Bad and Free Will

[glen]

I enjoyed this brief assessment of subjective probability/plausibility:

https://home.snafu.de/erich/ibe_2023.pdf

And I kindasortamaybe agree with their conclusion in favor of "convergence":

"Convergence: Traditional epistemic values can over time yield evaluations of theories differing from those of subjective plausibility and probability, yet theories that count as overall epistemically best at a time must in finitely many steps revise to theories that are most likely true given the available evidence."

On 1/26/24 13:59, Steve Smith wrote:
> I just learned about the work of De Finetti who apparently added the notion of "subjective probability" to the extant body of Bayesian probability at the time (1937).   "Probability is not about the system but rather about your knowledge of the system"...
> 
>  From Wikipedia
> 
>     *Bruno de Finetti*(13 June 1906 – 20 July 1985) was an Italianprobabilist <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_probabilists>statistician <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistician>andactuary <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuary>, noted for the "operational subjective" conception ofprobability <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability>. The classic exposition of his distinctive theory is the 1937/"La prévision: ses lois logiques, ses sources subjectives"/,^[1] <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruno_de_Finetti#cite_note-1> which discussed probability founded on the coherence of betting odds and the consequences ofexchangeability <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchangeability>.
> 

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