[FRIAM] Slow AI
Roger Critchlow
rec at elf.org
Sun Jan 28 17:07:58 EST 2024
From: Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org>
Date: Sun, Oct 23, 2011 at 11:10 AM
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: Next Dictator
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
I keep thinking that the next big dictator isn't new.
Das Kapital is an artificial life form which by a process of natural
selection pursues its own preservation and growth. It doesn't care which
individuals or institutions survive or perish in the process, it just moves
and grows where the return on investment takes it. It has no ethics, no
morality, and no sense of humor.
Daniel Kahneman in
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/23/magazine/dont-blink-the-hazards-of-confidence.html
mentions
analyzing 8 years of investment results for 25 successful
investment advisers. Though these were all experienced and confident men,
the average year to year correlation in their results was 0.01. The highly
rewarded experts of finance have no real idea what they're doing, they are
highly rewarded for an "illusion of skill", they play roulette with style
and their clients buy them expensive clothes to do it in. The news didn't
faze them a bit; that they can do what they do and get rewarded for it is
all the affirmation they need.
In dealing with Das Kapital, I think we're pretty much all in the same
boat. No one knows where the slime mold will choose to extend its
pseudopodia, or which of the pseudopodia will thrive or wither, or what
the novel beneficial or lamentable consequences will be. Some of us worry
about the suffering caused by the gold-goo-excrement, others worry about
not killing the beast that makes the gold-goo, many just fight for the
largest share they can get, and most of us could care less until the bucket
of gold-goo-excrement lands in our neighborhood or the gold-goo pseudopod
feeding our investments dries up.
--rec --
On Sun, Jan 28, 2024 at 2:48 PM Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org> wrote:
> Das Kapital is our most successful experiment in artificial life, but it's
> still feral and no one has the least clue how to domesticate it, and the
> grey goo we're constructing is a mass of collateralized debt instruments.
>
> -- rec --
>
>
> On Sun, Jan 28, 2024 at 11:03 AM Steve Smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:
>
>>
>> https://doctorow.medium.com/solar-is-a-market-for-financial-lemons-ea00699fe0a2
>>
>> I suspect the opinions among the members of this list range widely on
>> Doctorow's work, my general response to him is a guarded positive.
>>
>> I offer this article to you nominally about the problems with
>> rooftop-solar "gaming" but as a reflection on Corporations (and I claim
>> governments, religions, other institutions) as "slow AI". Rooftop Solar
>> is just a contemporary somewhat benign case-study.
>>
>> They are both contrived as "rule-based" systems and evolved in the same
>> mode as Machine Learning Models.
>>
>> The 2023 rush of AI/ML into the public's eye and hands might well
>> overwhelm us with false-paths to individual and collective prosperity.
>> Opportunities for dead-ends or overshoots abound in the harsh light of "reward
>> hacking" <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reward_hacking>?
>>
>> And then we have the spectre of
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>
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