[FRIAM] Slow AI

[Steve Smith]

> >Though these were all experienced and confident men, the average year to year correlation 
> in their results was 0.01.  The highly rewarded experts of finance 
> have no real idea what they're doing, they are highly rewarded for an 
> "illusion of skill"<
>
> One of my father-in-law's best friends was a man named Eli Shapiro who 
> was the Alfred P Sloan Professor of Economics at MIT.  My FIL asked 
> him some question about stock investing.  Shapiro said, "Chuck, nobody 
> knows anything."

And yet there is a huge amount of money flowing into the pockets of the 
financial advisors, stock brokers, economic pundits, etc. Giant 
buildings are built to house the folks working in that industry right 
next to their Insurance Industry cousins?

I take "the efficient market hypothesis" at face value (as best I can) 
so it doesn't surprise me that anyone's presumed/imagined ability to 
predict significantly is at least very limited.

I think this is one of the reasons that an open-ended "growth economy" 
is so popular, it make everyone willing to take on the mantle, a /_"tide 
whisperer"_/, pretending their shamanic actions/words are lifting those 
boats?
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