[FRIAM] Slow AI

[Frank Wimberly]

>Though these were all experienced and confident men, the average year to
year correlation in their results was 0.01.  The highly rewarded experts of
finance have no real idea what they're doing, they are highly rewarded for
an "illusion of skill"<

One of my father-in-law's best friends was a man named Eli Shapiro who was
the Alfred P Sloan Professor of Economics at MIT.  My FIL asked him some
question about stock investing.  Shapiro said, "Chuck, nobody knows
anything."

Frank

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Sun, Jan 28, 2024, 3:08 PM Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org> wrote:

> From: Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org>
> Date: Sun, Oct 23, 2011 at 11:10 AM
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: Next Dictator
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
>
>
> I keep thinking that the next big dictator isn't new.
>
> Das Kapital is an artificial life form which by a process of natural
> selection pursues its own preservation and growth.  It doesn't care which
> individuals or institutions survive or perish in the process, it just moves
> and grows where the return on investment takes it.  It has no ethics, no
> morality, and no sense of humor.
>
> Daniel Kahneman in
> http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/23/magazine/dont-blink-the-hazards-of-confidence.html mentions
> analyzing 8 years of investment results for 25 successful
> investment advisers.  Though these were all experienced and confident men,
> the average year to year correlation in their results was 0.01.  The highly
> rewarded experts of finance have no real idea what they're doing, they are
> highly rewarded for an "illusion of skill", they play roulette with style
> and their clients buy them expensive clothes to do it in.  The news didn't
> faze them a bit;  that they can do what they do and get rewarded for it is
> all the affirmation they need.
>
> In dealing with Das Kapital, I think we're pretty much all in the same
> boat.  No one knows where the slime mold will choose to extend its
>  pseudopodia, or which of the pseudopodia will thrive or wither, or what
> the novel beneficial or lamentable consequences will be.  Some of us worry
> about the suffering caused by the gold-goo-excrement, others worry about
> not killing the beast that makes the gold-goo, many just fight for the
> largest share they can get, and most of us could care less until the bucket
> of gold-goo-excrement lands in our neighborhood or the gold-goo pseudopod
> feeding our investments dries up.
>
> --rec --
>
> On Sun, Jan 28, 2024 at 2:48 PM Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org> wrote:
>
>> Das Kapital is our most successful experiment in artificial life, but
>> it's still feral and no one has the least clue how to domesticate it, and
>> the grey goo we're constructing is a mass of collateralized debt
>> instruments.
>>
>> -- rec --
>>
>>
>> On Sun, Jan 28, 2024 at 11:03 AM Steve Smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>> https://doctorow.medium.com/solar-is-a-market-for-financial-lemons-ea00699fe0a2
>>>
>>> I suspect the opinions among the members of this list range widely on
>>> Doctorow's work, my general response to him is a guarded positive.
>>>
>>> I offer this article to you nominally about the problems with
>>> rooftop-solar "gaming" but as a reflection on Corporations (and I claim
>>> governments, religions, other institutions) as "slow AI".   Rooftop Solar
>>> is just a contemporary somewhat benign case-study.
>>>
>>> They are both contrived as "rule-based" systems and evolved in the same
>>> mode as Machine Learning Models.
>>>
>>> The 2023 rush of AI/ML into the public's eye and hands might well
>>> overwhelm us with false-paths to individual and collective prosperity.
>>> Opportunities for dead-ends or overshoots abound in the harsh light of "reward
>>> hacking" <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reward_hacking>?
>>>
>>> And then we have the spectre of
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