[FRIAM] Dry Line

[Nicholas Thompson]

I don't have time to pester you properly today, so I will just give you the
charts. The dryline has become diffuse in NM, but the state is much
"moister" generally.  The position of the 50 degree contour is if anything,
slightly easter than it was.

[image: image.png]

[image: image.png]

Severe Risk has moved north, but thunderstorms a possibility.

There is a marginal risk for severe storms in northeastern New Mexico this
afternoon. Storms will be capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Keep an eye on weather conditions and be prepared to seek shelter should a
warning be issued!

I will check in with RY web cm later to see how things develop.  .Oh, and
here is the abq skewt, in  case you're interested.

[image: image.png]
No cape to speak of.

N



On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 11:21 AM Nicholas Thompson <thompnickson2 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> Two things to notice about today's dryline:
>
> First, the air in Santa Fe is getting moister.  Dewpoints approaching the
> 30's.
> [image: image.png]
>
>
> The steepest gradient in dewpoint is in N Texas where a bubble of very
> moist air is pushing into SE colorado.
>
> [image: image.png]
> Now, that plume of most air is only at the surface.   The dry air to the
> west of it is "warmer"  (higher THETA )  and should be over riding it at
> Amarillo.  Let's see.
>
> [image: image.png]
> Wow!  There's the characteristic pinetree shape of the elevated mixed
> layer.  Notice that in the first few meters the dewpoint falls dramatically
> and the surface relative temperature rises ten degrees centigrade.  Not
> very elevated.
>
> I wonder what the Storms Prediction Center is making of all of this.
>
> [image: image.png]
> Well, not a whole lot, actually, although  the text forecast is a bit more
> dramatic than the graphic one.
>
>
>
>  There will be
>    the potential for isolated thunderstorm development later this
>    afternoon along the west edge of the richer moisture (near the
>    western OK/TX border) where MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only
>    small convective inhibition.  However, forcing for ascent will be
>    rather nebulous and storm initiation/coverage are both in question.
>    If storms form, there will be just enough vertical shear for
>    supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail, and
>    perhaps an isolated tornado. Confidence is greater in renewed
>    thunderstorm development across KS this afternoon and into OK late
>    this evening into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and
>    associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on
>    the very moist/unstable warm sector.  Very large buoyancy and nearly
>    dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms
>    capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an
>    increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph) as storms grow
>    upscale into another MCS tonight.
>
> So ends your morning dryline report.
>
> I am trying to think about what you-guys are going to do about me.  Since
> I am convinced that you all SHOULD be interested in dry lines, i am
> unlikely to stop.  So perhaps you should designate somebody to heroically
> fake an interest in this stuff fwith me and,  since I am clearly casting my
> seeds upon barren ground.  These MCS's that form down wind of the dry line
> are wonderful examples butterfly effect phenomina since the situation is s
> LOADED that very small effects produce very violent storms.
>
> Nick
>
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